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  • #912,941
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:21am Jul 29, 2014 8:21am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} It might be but it is the bulls that are trapped not the bears
Exactly.. waiting for the next stop hunt so they can trigger my longs
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #912,942
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:24am Jul 29, 2014 8:24am
not euphoria follower
  • #912,943
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:26am Jul 29, 2014 8:26am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} So you think it's impossible to go even lower if the US economic data is good and the EU is bad?
Nothing is impossible, 0.0000 is the lowest it can go. 40 min left till news, maybe it's the news that will clean out some bull stops OR scare some bears including this one. Would have been nice if they had pushed this one down even more before news, but we will probably stay here until newstime.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #912,944
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:26am Jul 29, 2014 8:26am
It can go up, or it can go down :nerd:

For now not happy, so I'm out for now, to the beach
  • #912,945
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:36am Jul 29, 2014 8:36am
Quoting saver0
I wonder how many bears would be trapped at this low if/when this starts to climb.. Just a warning for anyone considering going short at this lower low
Hello saver. I would agree with you as to many traders going for the short position. Yet, once the market gives us a new direction, don't you believe they will give EU one more big sell before bringing it back up? We've already established resistance to the up side at 1.344x range, but we continue to print new lows.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,946
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:37am Jul 29, 2014 8:37am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} You have been BULL sin 1,36 + at at this moment you are wrong at the market. These late days many wrong things abouth the marhet direction has been written. It is bearish
I have been bullish since 1.35

And of course I can be wrong. That's the thing about being a trader. If I was right all the time.. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be on this forum or trading for that matter.. then it wouldn't be enough of a challenge hehe

And bearish is what has happened.. yes. I completely agree. But what is to come? that's what my focus is on.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,947
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:39am Jul 29, 2014 8:39am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} Hello saver. I would agree with you as to many traders going for the short position. Yet, once the market gives us a new direction, don't you believe they will give EU one more big sell before bringing it back up? We've already established resistance to the up side at 1.344x range, but we continue to print new lows.
We still haven't gotten the high volume bottom. So yes, a nice big spike down is very probable and that could be the stopping volume to look for where a mild/decent retracement is possible.

The safe strategy would be to go short on highs.. not to go short at bottoms at this point. Going long on EU is still very high risk. It's only for the ones who are crazy in the head.. like myself.. haha
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,948
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:45am Jul 29, 2014 8:45am
The news event to watch is:
Advance GDP q/q. They are expecting 3.1% when the previous was -2.9%

So what they are saying is that the last quarter the economy grew by 6%.. unless the economy is rigged.. that wouldn't be possible. USD could drop like a hammer.. and cause EU to shoot up.

I'm not saying anything.. do what your logic and reasoning is telling you. But with such news coming up tomorrow.. I wouldn't be shorting today. Today just smells like a bear trap..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,949
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:47am Jul 29, 2014 8:47am
Quoting saver0
{quote} We still haven't gotten the high volume bottom. So yes, a nice big spike down is very probable and that could be the stopping volume to look for where a mild/decent retracement is possible. The safe strategy would be to go short on highs.. not to go short at bottoms at this point. Going long on EU is still very high risk. It's only for the ones who are crazy in the head.. like myself.. haha
Excellent advice. To short at the highs, and not trying to predict extensions of the low, as it is evident that the extensions of the lows don't result in many pips to begin with.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,950
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:48am Jul 29, 2014 8:48am
perfect storm... many ez countries have the lowest bond rates in centuries, careful with those longs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,951
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:48am Jul 29, 2014 8:48am
Quoting saver0
The news event to watch is: Advance GDP q/q. They are expecting 3.1% when the previous was -2.9% So what they are saying is that the last quarter the economy grew by 6%.. unless the economy is rigged.. that wouldn't be possible. USD could drop like a hammer.. and cause EU to shoot up. I'm not saying anything.. do what your logic and reasoning is telling you. But with such news coming up tomorrow.. I wouldn't be shorting today. Today just smells like a bear trap..

Doest the GDP follow the USD? It looks as it rises when the USD rise and decline when the euro rise
  • #912,952
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:48am Jul 29, 2014 8:48am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} So you think it's impossible to go even lower if the US economic data is good and the EU is bad?
If the fundamentals are saying down.. it is very possible that this will sink even lower.. so the answer is yes.
What if it's US bad data and good EU data?
Plan for both scenarios unless you got some "insider" information or some deep dark market insights..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,953
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:50am Jul 29, 2014 8:50am
Preparing for another range - 3397 to 3461.

Edit: Waiting for CBCC news.
  • #912,954
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:50am Jul 29, 2014 8:50am
Last known accumulation support for EU was 1.33863 and 1.33583 Buy limits have been placed at those prices incase we have a sharp drop and reversal. I would expect that if by friday we are still at these levels, that those are the prices the NFP will hunt for before any sort of reversal.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,955
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:53am Jul 29, 2014 8:53am
Quoting saver0
I wonder how many bears would be trapped at this low if/when this starts to climb.. Just a warning for anyone considering going short at this lower low
//----

probably the exact same number as the would be bulls that buy the lower low......

the daily and weekly charts are oversold....... but the monthly charts only just now appear to be deteriorating.... looks like equal risk for both sides..... h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #912,956
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:54am Jul 29, 2014 8:54am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Doest the GDP follow the USD? It looks as it rises when the USD rise and decline when the euro rise
The quickest way to find the historical news impact is to click on the SMQ number in history that is displayed under each news release when you expand it in FF.
For example, click on Apr 30, 20140 .7
This will take you to this page:
http://www.olsenscale.com/view/usd/d...4-04-30-12-30/
Or this Nov 7, 2013 1.5
http://www.olsenscale.com/view/usd/d...3-11-07-13-30/

Nov of last year had some high impact USD GDP news that moved EU 190pips for example.. so tomorrows news can move this 50-200pips about. I think 100pips is a more likely target.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,957
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:56am Jul 29, 2014 8:56am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- probably the exact same number as the would be bulls that buy the lower low...... the daily and weekly charts are oversold....... but the monthly charts only just now appear to be deteriorating.... looks like equal risk for both sides..... h {image} {image}
Oh yea, monthly could be a really awesome short trade if looking to take a nice profit in a year or two.. but even that, I would still place me short at high. Short term, EU should be ruled by daily and weekly at the max.

Anyways.. good luck everybody! I got some work to do
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,958
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:57am Jul 29, 2014 8:57am
Quoting saver0
The news event to watch is: Advance GDP q/q. They are expecting 3.1% when the previous was -2.9% So what they are saying is that the last quarter the economy grew by 6%.. unless the economy is rigged.. that wouldn't be possible. USD could drop like a hammer.. and cause EU to shoot up. I'm not saying anything.. do what your logic and reasoning is telling you. But with such news coming up tomorrow.. I wouldn't be shorting today. Today just smells like a bear trap..
nobody is saying that... you are not taking into account that it is an annualised figure
  • #912,959
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:00am Jul 29, 2014 9:00am
Quoting saver0
The news event to watch is: Advance GDP q/q. They are expecting 3.1% when the previous was -2.9% So what they are saying is that the last quarter the economy grew by 6%.. unless the economy is rigged.. that wouldn't be possible. USD could drop like a hammer.. and cause EU to shoot up. I'm not saying anything.. do what your logic and reasoning is telling you. But with such news coming up tomorrow.. I wouldn't be shorting today. Today just smells like a bear trap..
Hi SaverO
I agree with you that 6% growth in one Q is unrealistic however it only has to be better then -2.9 say -1.5 will be seen as positive.
I am long on CHF hence EU up is good for me.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,960
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:03am Jul 29, 2014 9:03am
Quoting gatorinla
perfect storm... many ez countries have the lowest bond rates in centuries, careful with those longs.
netherlands something like, lowest in 500 years. germany since the 1800s and others between the two.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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