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EURUSD

  • #912,741
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:55pm Jul 27, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Why did you expect a gap?
I expected a gap because of the one sided trading we had the entire week. I figured the market would of taken advantage of those who were longing by gapping down.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,742
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:58pm Jul 27, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} {quote} So I was at the pool 2 nights ago and happened to pumped into someone who is quite interested trading Forex. It appears to me that his friends somehow lured him with the impression 30% gain can be made within 5 seconds or so trading Forex. He was very pumped up of starting a live account, but when i asked him what does the word "leverage" mean in Forex, he did not know. Just another example ppl come in this business with the wrong motive. Always going in for the kill and never consider the consequences.
Yes, Tell him to start with a small account, and to grow it and call you in a year with any questions, in a itemized list.
See what he asks you, and if he is still trading or 'given up', and you'll see by his answers how far he has come.
  • #912,743
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:04pm Jul 27, 2014 5:04pm
Gaps? In this dead-slow market? I didn't expect any. Despite it was one-sided trading, there's not actually a "serious" harm done yet, last day was about 40 pips down from open. Not a disaster.. things are slow, and need a trigger to increase volatility.
  • #912,744
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:16pm Jul 27, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Quite Ironic, don't u think! According to Bernanke's clear communication strategy, we should be on the same page - yet we aren't .. Anyway, {quote} Taylor is abit mechanic, not only it won't work in the current situation we have since Lehman - but i doubt you would have agreed for Federal fund rate to be at -1% / -2% back in 2009. Furthermore, Taylor doesn't make the distinction between part time - full time employment. This in particular is pretty much the story in the US Jobs recovery. The same goes to inflation, which maybe contributing...
you don't actually think the fed cares about the SPX etc? you're not some ZHedger are you?

And yes, I know the taylor rule is far from perfect, and I'm not suggesting we should be at 2% now... but I merely say, that whenever we hike from now, its stil dovish. When the taylor rule was negative, instead of rate cuts, the Fed chose QE, which is still acting.

But basically, even if the Fed hikes in Q1 and not Q2, that is still dovish!

Also, there have been a few bumps in US econ, but really nothing too problematic, they have come in unimportant areas (relatively speaking) and won't sway the Feds decision making process more than a few weeks.

Finally, that GS piece is so dated I can't even find it lol! that was from way back last October, relationships have changed so so much since then! Most interest rate models reliant on the 2yr broke around that time when the ECB cut in november. I wouldn't at all believe those numbers because they are very outdated and incorrect.

How they are calculated depends on the complexity you want. simple multi-factor linear regressions can do it, if you want to try on Excel tho.
  • #912,745
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:35pm Jul 27, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting cspip
{quote} Yes sure............. bounce maybe around 1.3390 / 95............first 1.3443 ?
even in a trend some minor news can cause a nice bounce near a support. i dont know if or when it will happen. i will just wait for now and see if i get a hint.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,746
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:40pm Jul 27, 2014 5:40pm
looks like the plan this week is to be out by weds
  • #912,747
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:42pm Jul 27, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting Gotland
Regarding consequences, i have blown around 5000 usd on my tries to learn forex. But now its starting to close in to break even. It takes time to learn the trade. I recomend only to use micro lots until reaching break even for a months live trading on micro. Have a smashin week. Rgds G
Putin agrees
Attached Image
  • #912,748
  • Edited 6:28pm Jul 27, 2014 5:54pm | Edited 6:28pm
EU new week opens with a 8-month low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-7-27 15-36-46.png Size: 34 KB

AU new week opens still at 0.9400 level that has been going on for weeks now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-7-27 3-35-56.png Size: 32 KB

UJ approaching 102.00 due to excellent job report from last week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-7-27 3-31-38.png Size: 34 KB

Make it or break it would all depend on this week's USD news.

  1. FOMC (hawkish tone is expected)
  2. Non-Farm Payroll
  3. Unemployment Rate
  4. US Consumer Confident
  5. ADP Employment Change
  6. Q2 GDP forecast
  7. ISM Manufacturing PMI

As for USD dollar, I don't expect there would big change in taper or rate decision in the next FOMC, but i would definitely expect some hawkish tone from Yellen.



On the other hand, as for EURO, anything favors dollar this week would definitely continue fueling the EU bear dive while lowering EURO favors ECB monetary policy. However, I am still quite skeptical on the recent EU dive (mostly technical dive) and if US data somewhat flat, rebounding back above 1.3500 is not entirely impossible.

Exciting week ahead and tons to cover.

Check out this good technical trade opportunity on GBPJPY this week, too.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7633932

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #912,749
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:00pm Jul 27, 2014 7:00pm
EURUSD is too heavy.. Entering long here is very risky, and entering short does not look attractive considering how the price is exhausted in 4-hr chart..Maybe it's good to stay flat here.
  • #912,750
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:03pm Jul 27, 2014 7:03pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} you don't actually think the fed cares about the SPX etc? you're not some ZHedger are you? And yes, I know the taylor rule is far from perfect, and I'm not suggesting we should be at 2% now...
We agree on many things, my point is: Every time i'm gonna hear about possible monetary tightening in the USA, while Stocks and exposure to risky assets being put on hold / sell side, in my opinion it shows market can't receive the shock ... it's true even with 50 basis points hike, the Feds remain behind the curve- but at the same time, the most important one is the first 25 basis point hike!

In any case, plenty of time till we conclude 2014 and we see how things develop

* The last thing i do with my time, is to read Zerohedge junk articles
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,751
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:07pm Jul 27, 2014 7:07pm
To be honest I still think EURUSD is a buy. The decline doesn't seem right... I know about Russia and risk aversion but still. My analysis shows me the Euro will recover
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #912,752
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:16pm Jul 27, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting Panco
To be honest I still think EURUSD is a buy. The decline doesn't seem right... I know about Russia and risk aversion but still. My analysis shows me the Euro will recover
How It does not seem right? It dropped all the way down (Look at bigger picture d1,w1,4h) the price is very exhausted/oversold (meaning it's a strong downtrend) I am just discussing and trying to learn from others too, is your analysis technical? fundamental? both? I mean, what tells you that the EUR is a buy? Honestly.. it drops any pips it gains in a milliseconds, It is not the price action you see when price is due recovery, it's near the bottom/lows as well..I am long myself and I am aiming at sub 40x/50x depending on the next hours, can't see how It will recover from here tho, it's very, very heavy.
  • #912,753
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:17pm Jul 27, 2014 7:17pm
Earlier on I told you about the trades I am following and I was debating whether I should increase the leverage. I didn't see an answer so I am letting you know I have increased the leverage and took 4 trades, EURUSD long, CADJPY long, Natural Gas long and EURSGD long. I will let you know how the experience went. So far I am in a small profit in Natural Gas. If you can share your opinion I will appreciate it, Weekly Trades
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #912,754
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:55pm Jul 27, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting Panco
To be honest I still think EURUSD is a buy. The decline doesn't seem right... I know about Russia and risk aversion but still. My analysis shows me the Euro will recover
I´m sure it will, it´s only a matter of time, are your pockets deep enough ?
  • #912,755
  • Jul 27, 2014 8:20pm Jul 27, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Ah, your logic is false to start with ... A) You assumed just like the rest of the broken record players that the Euro has to go down. One of the most annoying questions i have been listening too for the last two years, Why the Euro is rising?! As if the right direction must be it falls down ... Do you even remember the Euro trading at $1.65? Would you like to imagine what would have happened to the EURUSD uptrend, if the financial crisis came just two years later?! I guess the Euro will be trading at $1.70 - if not higher. * Euro index...

Listen man, you seem like a smart guy and everything. Not trying to argue with you about anything. You're clearly biased to EU upside and have been for a long time… and good thing for you you were right for a while as it went to 1.4, I hope you made lots of money. Personally I don't see why EU should be above 1.3 and I intend to make money shorting it. Good luck to you.
  • #912,756
  • Jul 27, 2014 9:01pm Jul 27, 2014 9:01pm
ClubdeCapitales.com EURUSD Elliot wave outlook: SELL THE REBOUNDS.
Get rich or die buying ! (LOL) See the full article here http://eurusdtrades.wordpress.com/20...-wave-outlook/
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 25 JUL CLUB DE CAPITALES.PNG Size: 219 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURO COT 25 JULY PNG.PNG Size: 335 KB
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #912,757
  • Jul 27, 2014 9:46pm Jul 27, 2014 9:46pm
Long euro @1.3429
  • #912,758
  • Jul 27, 2014 10:01pm Jul 27, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting FX-Junkie
Long euro @1.3429
Gidday EUR/US

Now there is two

must admit been waiting all last week

Must get a we burst up sooner or later
  • #912,759
  • Jul 27, 2014 10:19pm Jul 27, 2014 10:19pm
good morning everyone i wish to all a good week
  • #912,760
  • Jul 27, 2014 10:21pm Jul 27, 2014 10:21pm
Quoting parsifal23
{quote} I´m sure it will, it´s only a matter of time, are your pockets deep enough ?
Yes, his pockets are very deep.

When he was in grade ten, my sister was his teacher. She always suspected he cheated in exams and used to check his pockets by sliding her fingers in his pockets ............... until one day he cut removed the inside of his pants' pocket with a scissor.
The Thief of Wall Street
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