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EURUSD

  • #912,721
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:00pm Jul 27, 2014 2:00pm
bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,722
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:08pm Jul 27, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} what a moron you are - first you set half of FF on ignore within a day, and then you spam each and every thread with this message
Not much to add here ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #912,723
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:13pm Jul 27, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} most markets are more fragile then most think. a drop of just a few buyers has a multiple affect. those 1% rates would have to rise until both markets reach their sweet spot. the further the rise, the more risk for pig investors. creating more rise. i am not saying crash, i am saying things may go back to 2 3 years back.. life gets harder then it is now. spain atm has a 24% unemployment rate. it just takes one bad apple..
I agree that they are very vulnerable... thing is, fixed income managers have quite a different risk dynamic, so an exodus is rather unlikely is a few people stop buying...

I think Emerging market debt would be at more risk in the event of rapid US tightening. Then HY corporate, then PIIG sovvies.

In a deflationary (lets be honest to ourselves) environment, peripheral debt will be rather bid as its nominal.
  • #912,724
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:34pm Jul 27, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} hi, its clear, I think, that we are drawing very different conculsions from the same data, which is fine, only time will tell...
Quite Ironic, don't u think! According to Bernanke's clear communication strategy, we should be on the same page - yet we aren't ..

Anyway,

Quote
They aren't being rushed at all... consider almost any taylor rule estimate here. They are being extremely dovish, even if they were to hikes rates tomorrow!
Taylor is abit mechanic, not only it won't work in the current situation we have since Lehman - but i doubt you would have agreed for Federal fund rate to be at -1% / -2% back in 2009. Furthermore, Taylor doesn't make the distinction between part time - full time employment. This in particular is pretty much the story in the US Jobs recovery. The same goes to inflation, which maybe contributing to the high reading. In any case, the situation is unprecedented and i think the Feds approach of 'being late than sorry' is what dominate the picture.

Quote
Furthermore, the labor market in the US, which is something they care about a lot, is doing fantastically well... and we are very close to the equilibrium rate of U/E (possible to see sub 6% next friday) so, even if growth (a terrible indicator, which is very lagging and isnt that important) is poor, labor data and inflation are perfect for more hikes.

This is pretty much true, but don't u think the Feds should consider the shock to the equity market either domestically / globally! It was pretty much scary early 2014 when the speculation started, with the SPX dropping almost 10% off the highs and the selling in emerging markets started. The turmoil in the Bonds market could create ripple effects!!

It all about how markets can absorb the shock?! If they can't, i don't think we will see the rate hike in 2Q/2015 - after all, see what harsh two weeks of winter did to either employment or new orders.

I still see it's too early, and the recent drop in consumer sentiment in May & June, and new home sales in July kind of confirm this view..

Quote
Which goldman piece are you referring too, because I must've completely missed it? I really have no idea where those numbers come from, as the ones that we calculate are quite different in fact...!! I presume the 10bps is wrt to the base rate as well?

I'm referring to that http://www.efxnews.com/story/21429/w...-goldman-sachs The TLTRO calculation are my own, so u could consider them pretty much unreliable if you want ... i would love to know how u calculate them, as i said before i'm not really an expert on Fixed income - so any help would be appreciate it.

*Thanks for SG report
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,725
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:43pm Jul 27, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Isn't China on the way to tighten as well?
China has been easing all year.
  • #912,726
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:03pm Jul 27, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
back to norm atm as expected http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post7580395 a lower low or 3734 ,,, even with a LL back to 3589 is still a better entry after a LL.. even with a new LL, a bounce in the 3494 area would not be a surprise. the current 3589 ish area w/o a LL. the shorter term bulls have sights on 3736 min. so a bounce if one was to happen even after a 3494/86 area bounce. bears still have not had the normal retrace to 3734.. of course this is wishy washy post. because we are in a sausage grinder in this area atm just...
Quoting cspip
{quote} much lower to around 1.3414 i think
The above was from 4th July 2014...........16 days later, 20th July 2014, got to within 5 pips of 1.3414.........was a 180 pip drop

  • #912,727
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:24pm Jul 27, 2014 3:24pm
tf h4... bullish black swan + abcd... This pattern valid till 1,34... very good risk/award ratio

1,355 would be a possible pullback

max destination 1,364

when down again

Lets see

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #912,728
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:25pm Jul 27, 2014 3:25pm
Looking to buy in the prz attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Prz has some strong S/R.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is also some divergence on the daily, as well as missed pivots up above. PRZ also converges with 200 weekly EMA.
  • #912,729
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:41pm Jul 27, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting cspip
{quote} {quote} The above was from 4th July 2014...........16 days later, 20th July 2014, got to within 5 pips of 1.3414.........was a 180 pip drop
i got other irons in the fire to buy or sell. one comes around now and then. eu to me is just another i will wait for if or when it bounces. i got nothing but time and lots of hooks. patience really is a virtue, in trading the way i trade..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,730
  • Edited 4:04pm Jul 27, 2014 3:47pm | Edited 4:04pm
EURUSD
Technical:
Price action quite heavy still and now we should be heading to 1.3390 key level, this is 1.618 Ext Daily + 61.8 minor target of ABCD down daily chart + Double top target daily chart + Weekly S1 + Monthly S3, so a lot of things to look for. Very good confluence!! This is the only place I consider for any long positions.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #912,731
  • Edited 4:03pm Jul 27, 2014 3:51pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i got other irons in the fire to buy or sell. one comes around now and then. eu to me is just another i will wait for if or when it bounces. i got nothing but time and lots of hooks. patience really is a virtue, in trading the way i trade..

Yes sure.............

bounce maybe around 1.3390 / 95............first 1.3443 ?
  • #912,732
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:57pm Jul 27, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting vector0
{quote} i like to thank you Fxsaywhat too for the very true words. i had a similar equity chart. and i wanna share too. one must know what he's doing when he's trading with real money. or better don't trade. which is more painful? realized loss or unrealized loss? i'd say, both aren't not as painful as trading luck with real money. {image}
Vector, thanks for bringing up your own charts as a sample to prove my point. You had a solid system and i am sure if you figure out what happened in the last couple trades and improve, you would do just fine and consistent.

Although I wouldn't promote your latest trading decisions on the DD recovery, I would still congrats you that you are almost back on your feet again.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #912,733
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:03pm Jul 27, 2014 4:03pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I agree. Closing bad trades is more important than closing good trades. Every entry needs an exit plan, where the trader is ready to give up on the trade and close with a loss for more potential profit in the future.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it could be worse...check out the money management on this one. it got pretty quiet lately. the most likely blowup here, starts with charts like this. the names are withheld to protect the neuron challenged. dropping since jan 1 {image}
So I was at the pool 2 nights ago and happened to pumped into someone who is quite interested trading Forex. It appears to me that his friends somehow lured him with the impression 30% gain can be made within 5 seconds or so trading Forex. He was very pumped up of starting a live account, but when i asked him what does the word "leverage" mean in Forex, he did not know.

Just another example ppl come in this business with the wrong motive. Always going in for the kill and never consider the consequences.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #912,734
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:15pm Jul 27, 2014 4:15pm
Regarding consequences, i have blown around 5000 usd on my tries to learn forex. But now its starting to close in to break even. It takes time to learn the trade. I recomend only to use micro lots until reaching break even for a months live trading on micro.
Have a smashin week.
Rgds G
  • #912,735
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:20pm Jul 27, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} USDCAD First target reached. The speed of the move could indicate that there is more to come, if you look into the weekly chart you will see that we are bouncing or reversing from 61.8 Ret and there is positive divergence on Weekly chart as well. Next week should find good spot to add longs depending on reaction to 50% Resistance Daily chart if we get there as I expect . I will update on this one in due time. {image}
USDCAD
Reversal confirmed and now I am only looking for opportunities to join longs at precise fib numbers Ideally 4 hours chart retracements + weekly pivots, which we should have through the course of this week. Oil seems to have confirmed reversal on weekly chart too.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #912,736
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:21pm Jul 27, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting BogiFX
Instead of double posting the same post here on forums i will post only in my journal.Whoever wants to join please be welcome.This is not an invitation to my journal.
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} you seem confused.... and who are you actually talking to? after all you went on an ignoring spree earlier today covering everyone in this thread and many more when you have not ever interacted with most of the people... so why are you posting here? just to tell us that you won't be posting here? even more confusing.... and not too mention that you spammed this post into 16 different threads {image} {image}
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} You r not seeing the big picture, His goal is achieved, He is now the center of attraction
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} talking with ignored peoples I have my little space too, but I would love to people visit my little space. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7632959
Well Max, first of all i wanted to say that the ignored list is something i have not seen or noticed before months I joined FF. I am not sure what happened there, but I am sure one must have his reason.

As for BogiFX, I bumped into this fellow quite often in GBPNZD and GBPUD threads. I first mistakenly posted in his GBPNZD journal thread and that was how i met BogiFX, but then I moved onto the interactive trading forum GBPNZD thread. We have been talking mainly on this pair for weeks now in the GBPNZD thread (not on his journal thread). I must say BogiFX's analysis was on spot and quite nice for discussion when there is a difference in option.

As for BogiFX's journal, I would say it is very clean and discussion is rarely off topic. Compare to EU thread and GBP thread, I often find myself reading pages and pages off-topic replies and easily distracted from my original thoughts not to mention the flames and ego tales. Now this doesn't happen in his journal thread which is comparably focused and objective oriented.

I haven't yet ended up on his ignored list, but this is how much I have experienced with BogliFX in the past 2 months or so.

Cheers and keep up the good work on EU posting here this week. There is a lot to cover this week from the dollar news risk side.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #912,737
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:23pm Jul 27, 2014 4:23pm
Can you guys believe we didn't gap at all.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,738
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:24pm Jul 27, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting Gotland
Regarding consequences, i have blown around 5000 usd on my tries to learn forex. But now its starting to close in to break even. It takes time to learn the trade. I recomend only to use micro lots until reaching break even for a months live trading on micro. Have a smashin week. Rgds G
True talk
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #912,739
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:47pm Jul 27, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Gotland
Regarding consequences, i have blown around 5000 usd on my tries to learn forex. But now its starting to close in to break even. It takes time to learn the trade. I recomend only to use micro lots until reaching break even for a months live trading on micro. Have a smashin week. Rgds G
Sound Advice Gotland.

It has taken me probably double that amount of money and 4 years to get a handle on things. Anybody who thinks this is a one click get rich quick game is in for a rude awakening.

And the only way to really learn once you developed a basic trading strategy is to trade with real money. Demo accounts are good for the testing phase, but they fail to develop the psychological factors involved ( Like NOT staring at a computer screen for hours) especially when trading higher lot sizes.

One way I judge if a newbie is ready to trade live....can they explain their trade progression or the factors they use to determine when to enter a trade? This should include how they determine risk/ reward, what pairs they trade and why, trading times, and factors they use to determine when to pull the trigger.

IF they have no answer other than one indicator such as fibo levels, then they need to do more research.

But trading live with significant lot sizes (0.5 or higher) is the only way to learn.

For most, the challenge comes when adversity hits. The time when you lose 3 in a row...can you work through things, stick with your system and make progress. What people typically try and do is continually look for the one big trade....and they end up losing their ass. The answer is to analyse why you lost, clean-up your mistakes and drive on.

Thanks for the post
  • #912,740
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:49pm Jul 27, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting CholiPop
Can you guys believe we didn't gap at all.
Why did you expect a gap?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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