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EURUSD

  • #912,661
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:33am Jul 26, 2014 11:33am
FTR,

/6E and EURUSD here.

they're the same thing except one is a future, one is spot. given 3m swaps are ~0 they are idenitcal.
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  • #912,662
  • Jul 26, 2014 12:22pm Jul 26, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} It might have been the largest drop in CPI since 2008, but it doesn't matter in the slightest... some perspective on it. It is so close to 2% that it really is of no concern if it misses by 0.1% etc etc Here is some reports on that CPI, two from BAML / /one from barclays http://rcr.ml.com/Archive/11409220.p...82969d98198dc4 http://research1.ml.com/C?q=CEFgJ4Ue...a.com&h=YRqgtA...
You are really amazing, couldn't be more grateful for ur help
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,663
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:07pm Jul 26, 2014 1:07pm
From m5 to Daily TF

#TimeWillTell
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not euphoria follower
  • #912,664
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:23pm Jul 26, 2014 1:23pm
Hey Guys hope you are having a great weekend
I was looking at CoT and they say still EUR is expected to fall that is from the data received yesterday, commercial hedgers are still buying EUR and there is no sign of reverse trend

Here is the report:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm
  • #912,665
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:48pm Jul 26, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting abhijityad
Hey Guys hope you are having a great weekend I was looking at CoT and they say still EUR is expected to fall that is from the data received yesterday, commercial hedgers are still buying EUR and there is no sign of reverse trend Here is the report: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm
Yes, might drop more. I will try to start buying around 1.33xx, buying with adding, I mean, not just scalping for 20-50 pips. From 1.33 to 1.36 could be a nice ride.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,666
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:21pm Jul 26, 2014 3:21pm
It really depends on your trading style. Every trader has a style that's suitable for him/her. For myself, I just aim at scalping / intraday (going for 10-20pips) so I really do not have to worry about the long term view of EURUSD, whether it will go to 1.2x or back to 1.36, I can try to get small pips either way.. the best thing about this trading style is that you do not have to worry about "What is going to happen next week, will it drop more?" - Ofcoure trend riding is more rewarding, but I have traded forex for almost 10 years and I have got the conclusion that intraday trading and aiming for fewer pips has more probability of winning than swing trading/or high objective. This way you can survive the range days, and the uncertainty in forex. As I said in previous post, I am long here and targeting 15-20 pips then I'll wait for a new setup on EURUSD or different pair.
  • #912,667
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:29pm Jul 26, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Not picking on you but this attitude and perception is not the reality. 70% were short on GU and fell from 7180 to 6960 75% short on NU 8830 to 8550 Bottom line is Banks operate same principals as retail buy low sell high.Only difference is low can be very low and high can be very high. There is no statistical edge fading "masses (retail) is profitable because often retail traders are correct.Where they lose is high leverage,over trading and poor MM and not direction. REgards
Completely agree with everything you said Davit. Very valid points.

Except, what I'm looking at is entirely different. The money flow is telling me something else Based on that.. most likely a consolidation week will be the next week followed by some bullish action most likely taking this up to near 1.360 again or at least 1.355ish area. Not trying to be predicting anything.. but based on what I have seen, I have a real difficulty going short at this time because a correction is on its way, and don't know how far up this correction could take EU. It will be interesting to see what will happen.. hehe
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,668
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:30pm Jul 26, 2014 3:30pm
And while I am at it.. I want to share a few of my ideas here, I am not forcing anyone to listen to them tho.

1. Never, ever go to a forecast site, or listen to what "so-called analysts" say on TV, on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. I've went thru all that, They'll never be right, and you'll lose by following these people.

2. Use simple trading, look at candlesticks and you'll have a feeling of the next move.. It's something that you'll get with more trading experience, I am sure somebody understand what I am trying to say. I mean, there are some patterns that are followed by a specific price actions most probably. You'll not see this in books, or courses. You have to get used to the charts..

3. Technically, EU is all the way down from monthly to daily charts, but as I said, I do not care - I am intraday trader, and I can scalp on the long side, so for medium term traders the 4-hr chart looks so exhausted to me, plot a 200ma on your chart and see the distance between the ma and price, also plot a 14-rsi and quickly check the oversold level (in 4-hr chart especially) with some building up divergence. so my very limited view here is what will happen is a period of consolidation in the 1.34 area before it continues to go down.. the consolidation will free the pair from oversold level, divergence and also the exhausted price and its 200ma (where some shorts will certainly be interested to short eur again...)

my 2cents

goodbye
  • #912,669
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:38pm Jul 26, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Completely agree with everything you said Davit. Very valid points. Except, what I'm looking at is entirely different. The money flow is telling me something else Based on that.. most likely a consolidation week will be the next week followed by some bullish action most likely taking this up to near 1.360 again or at least 1.355ish area. Not trying to be predicting anything.. but based on what I have seen, I have a real difficulty going short at this time because a correction is on its way, and don't know how far up this correction could...
Yes, that's what I was trying to include, a consolidation period may very much occur because that's what I see on 4hr chart.
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  • #912,670
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:41pm Jul 26, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Thanks for the report, i'm reading it currently ... I haven't screamed reversal yet, and my bullish view on the Euro - doesn't necessary mean i see the USD going into a sell off. The pound seems to be retracing, the Aussie is also having problems climbing higher, the Canadian Dollar seems also having problems , the Yen well is the Yen and finally Euro is being sold on weakness. What puzzles me a bit is, i don't really see how the Dollar index will continue climbing on the back of Euro weakness ..

The really puzzling thing was that EU even went from 1.3 to 1.4 in the first place, that was total manipulation IMO and done to 1. rob shorts blind and 2. sucker people in to start buying it when it sells off from there. We went from 80% short on EU to now basically 50%… and I'm sure more and more people will try to catch the bottom in EU, unfortunately for them the bottom is going to be lower than 1.3… likely 1.27 in the next year or so.
  • #912,671
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:50pm Jul 26, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} The really puzzling thing was that EU even went from 1.3 to 1.4 in the first place, that was total manipulation IMO and done to 1. rob shorts blind and 2. sucker people in to start buying it when it sells off from there. We went from 80% short on EU to now basically 50%… and I'm sure more and more people will try to catch the bottom in EU, unfortunately for them the bottom is going to be lower than 1.3… likely 1.27 in the next year or so.
.
not euphoria follower
  • #912,672
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:59pm Jul 26, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting parsifal23
87 % of open lots traded are LONG ! Are you serious ? Monthly chart is bearish, weekly, daily, 4hr, and yet most people go long that pair. Does the majority of you enjoy loosing money ? It seems so. Apart from TA there are many fundamental reasons too to go short, ECB, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, bad News from Germany and other EURO-Countries and so on and so on..... Below you can find the actual analysis from an expert-trader, maybe it´s enlightening for some of you, http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-...st-2014-a.html...
Do you mean this?
"Conclusion:
So, guys, EUR has reached hot point on big picture – edge of YPP, trend breakeven point and support area. Till the end of July we probably should get further direction. Although currently situation stands in favor of USD, but we can’t exclude surprises from Fed. Thus, it is not safe to take strategical positions right now and better to wait for beginning of the August.
In short-term situation tactical target at 1.3380 stands relatively close and to be honest our journey on the way to it is coming to an end. Thus, we can’t call you to take new short position since there is rather shy room till this area. But we should not think that we miss something, since with end of July clarity we probably will get new solid direction (despite whether it will be up or down) and will have enough time to take position. "

According to this guy, he is saying to wait out.. don't know where it will go. Which I do agree with. Going short now doesn't seem like a very good idea. If you are already in a short, then that's great for you, think of taking profit.. not placing more shorts..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,673
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:55pm Jul 26, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} The really puzzling thing was that EU even went from 1.3 to 1.4 in the first place, that was total manipulation IMO and done to 1. rob shorts blind and 2. sucker people in to start buying it when it sells off from there. We went from 80% short on EU to now basically 50%… and I'm sure more and more people will try to catch the bottom in EU, unfortunately for them the bottom is going to be lower than 1.3… likely 1.27 in the next year or so.
Ah, your logic is false to start with ...

A) You assumed just like the rest of the broken record players that the Euro has to go down. One of the most annoying questions i have been listening too for the last two years, Why the Euro is rising?! As if the right direction must be it falls down ... Do you even remember the Euro trading at $1.65? Would you like to imagine what would have happened to the EURUSD uptrend, if the financial crisis came just two years later?! I guess the Euro will be trading at $1.70 - if not higher.

* Euro index since 2000, which clearly shows an uptrend that was interrupted during 2008 crisis and later 2010 peripheries bonds crisis. Check the Dollar index for the same period.

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B) The exchange rate is determined through supply and demand curve ( Trade balance), current inflation, growth, real interest rates ... etc etc etc! Speculative trading can't drive a currency up or down more than a couple of percentage, but when the real economy decide to dumb it's own currency or sleep on it, then this is where valuation comes into place. For example, one of the side effects George Soros talked about during Abenomics experiment was the devaluation of Yen could lead to massive outflows of Japanese funds that leads to a total collapse of Japan's economy... AKA, the real economy - not a bunch of gamblers!

C) The Europe needs a cheap currency! A theory developed by a french economist that most probably was drank or misplaced his head! Ever heard a Merceeds / BMW purchaser basing his decision on, when the exchange rate will get lower?! How about expansive fashion, accessories, tourism or real estate investment?! Do you have any idea how much does it cost to book one room in a medium Greek / Spanish / Italian island?!

On the other side of the river, the USA growth story - just for the sake of argument let's assume it's bought able.

A) There is no going back to higher interest rates in USA, not even in the next 10 - 15 years, due to the excess liquidity sleeping on the feds balance sheet. This money, one way or another will enter circulation - either today, tomorrow or gradually. So, yes the Feds will hike interest rate first, probably by 2Q / 2015 - but the ECB could bounce off negative interest rate faster, and enter a full hiking cycle because they never used QE.

B) Since the USA economy is the leader globally, equity market is getting abit expensive and valuation is abit stretched - except the Bonds / Treasury markets. However, the majority of emerging markets / developed markets are lagging behind. This means the better USA outperforms, the more likely USD outflows to these economies will increase, due to exponential ROI.

( That is the expansionary nature of the Might Dollar, USA prints, it's citizen consume imported products, it spills over the entire world - while the purchasing power of USD follow the model: Drill Baby Drill)

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Rise Baby Rise
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,674
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:11pm Jul 26, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Ah, your logic is false to start with ... A) You assumed just like the rest of the broken record players that the Euro has to go down. One of the most annoying questions i have been listening too for the last two years, Why the Euro is rising?! As if the right direction must be it falls down ... Do you even remember the Euro trading at $1.65? Would you like to imagine what would have happened to the EURUSD uptrend, if the financial crisis came just two years later?! I guess the Euro will be trading at $1.70 - if not higher. * Euro index...

interesting analysis... and dont get me wrong, I don't think the move from 1.34 to 1.4 was "manipulation" to get suckers to buy as per the the person you're quoting...

But I struggle to see what you say here is EUR bullish? You merely state that there are factors which *aren't* bearish for the EUR. That doesn't necessarily mean bullish - merely sideways.

Also, you refer to trends as if they are there just because. "Would you like to imagine what would have happened to the EURUSD uptrend, if the financial crisis came just two years later?! I guess the Euro will be trading at $1.70 - if not higher."

but you are merely arguing counterfactuals which could not be proven. you have no way of suggesting that 1.70 would have been traded if the GFC was in 2010 etc. For all we know it could have dropped even more, there is no way to prove/disprove anything.

What I am saying is a trend doesn't happen for no reason, and it was trending higher, yes. But it would have needed more reason to *keep* trending higher.

Either way, I think arguing counterfactuals is pointless.

So fair enough that you give reasons for the EUR to not crash, but have you any for it potentially rising? or do you think we just go sideways ad infinitum?
  • #912,675
  • Edited 7:47pm Jul 26, 2014 7:18pm | Edited 7:47pm
lots of curve fitting, going on after the fact, explanations, happening.. if one wants to know why the usd weakened, they need to look beyond their trading careers to where it started. a hint would be "all modern recessions in the u.s, started with a spike in oil before." what that tells u is the usd and the u.s. economy is strongly linked to oil. as u.s. oil production goes up, so does the usd. and as it goes up, spikes in oil will have less recession affect then it did in the last 44 years. in the multiple affect of manufactures seeking cheaper energy cost, comes increased labor demand. it also has the chance to reduce war spending in unstable parts ofthe world. less need to get involved in conflict or the spending that goes with it. those same multiples are added to countries not with the luxury of having oil. notice the drop of the aud and cad comparable to the usd. another country with increasing domestic oil is gb. it to has kicked some butt.

freshly piling up more crap on old crap just gives a bigger pile of shit. hey a broke clock is right twice a day..eventually some will be right. they just wont have an account to withdraw from.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,676
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:19pm Jul 26, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} I struggle to see what you say here is EUR bullish? You merely state that there are factors which *aren't* bearish for the EUR. That doesn't necessarily mean bullish - merely sideways.
I think in the grand scheme of things, the Euro will remain range bond between $1.40 - $1.25, while i think $1.50 ( Reachable with inflation above 2% / growth 3% or more) - $1.20 (Reachable in the case of wide Banking problem or sovereign debt) as extremes. Moreover, as Germany continues to transform the European union into Germanization, i think Soros's theory of monetary expansion (TLTRO/Negative rates/ABS/QE) with controlled inflation on the Deutsche Mark back in early 90's, will work on the Euro as well. According to him, as long as inflation remains subdued - fiscal and monetary expansion will lead a currency to surge not fall. (The Alchemy of Finance)

-The Balance of trade / surplus. Most European Union countries are actually building up surplus, and who running deficits are trying to get rid of it, like Greece for example. The rule of thumb is the higher surplus goes, the more the currency appreciates, the cheaper energy becomes and lower government financing is. For now, part of this picture has been painted - and as time goes by, as long as Europe outlook remains stable foreign investors will line up to take a piece of the action. ( Assuming EU current account remaining positive, with an upward trajectory)

- My last reason is a bit political, so i don't really rely on it that much. The Europeans or at least the generations responsible for the political realm is not willing yet to surrender it's fiscal sovereignty. So, Europe is still far behind USA model of federalization or electing a European parliament with actual domestic authority replacing domestic parliament. Without federal government, Europe won't be able to print as much money or at least compete the US Dollar as the main reserve currency or intermediary for international trade. So, at least for the next 10 - 20 years, there won't be a need for the majority of Euros in circulation to be held be foreigners or in reserve.

Quote
Also, you refer to trends as if they are there just because. "Would you like to imagine what would have happened to the EURUSD uptrend, if the financial crisis came just two years later?! I guess the Euro will be trading at $1.70 - if not higher."

The statement " 1.70" is meant to be in extreme. Just to remind people once upon time, before some European countries got exposed - the Euro was faring way too high - yet the ECB stood watching and didn't intervene. The funny thing about $1.65 is market was so buying the Euro, while Trichet was warning for three years before it, of the amount of imbalances Europe is suffering from .. but these numbers no longer means anything, because it's different times, different circumstances.

* Check out this link: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/html/crisis.en.html - it's awesome as it shows the ECB timeline of the crisis ... notice when Trichet started to warn market about the imbalance in EU, 2005
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,677
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:46pm Jul 26, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} The really puzzling thing was that EU even went from 1.3 to 1.4 in the first place, that was total manipulation IMO
How do you manipulate a 1000 pip move? 1.3-1.4 is a healthy level for the euro, everybody is obviously happy with it, the germans and also the americans. So it might range between these levels for a long time to come. With short-term spikes above or below.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,678
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:25pm Jul 26, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting Eaze
Gradual gain but instant loss.
yeah, ouch!
Do not wait to strike till the iron is hot; but make it hot by striking.
  • #912,679
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:46pm Jul 26, 2014 11:46pm
I am now here. Love to join the chat in the future with everyone!
Pipping in my chaffee!
  • #912,680
  • Jul 27, 2014 12:31am Jul 27, 2014 12:31am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} How do you manipulate a 1000 pip move? 1.3-1.4 is a healthy level for the euro, everybody is obviously happy with it, the germans and also the americans. So it might range between these levels for a long time to come. With short-term spikes above or below.

You and I have no say where the price goes.

So to answer your question, how do you manipulation a 1000 pip move? You become the central bankers that run the financial world.
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