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  • #912,641
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:56am Jul 26, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} What do you specifically want?
If u have access to Nikon, i think they have a EURUSD voulme chart or report ( I have seen it many times, but don't know the exact terminology, because i never had access to it)

I'm basically trying to understand: A) If there is volume behind this move since Mid July
B) If you know the answer, why voulme surged at $1.362 ( wasn't an option thing or what? )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,642
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:03am Jul 26, 2014 10:03am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} I was also confused at this... All he is showing is the DXY minus about 1.3 as a value. I.e the DX with a different number I don't think he quite understands the maths involved. attached is DX vs (DX-EUR) *hint, they're the same thing. {image}

Yes, I noticed that, too.

Maybe he gives out the wrong chart, I do not know. Maybe he can clarify......
  • #912,643
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:07am Jul 26, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} If u have access to Nikon, i think they have a EURUSD voulme chart or report ( I have seen it many times, but don't know the exact terminology, because i never had access to it) I'm basically trying to understand: A) If there is volume behind this move since Mid July B) If you know the answer, why voulme surged at $1.362 ( wasn't an option thing or what? )
There are a few things you may be referencing...

Are you looking for option volume as per the DTCC or are you looking for spot volumes?

Volumes reported by citi might be more interesting to you, espeically as they are the largest FX house in the world, so their volume is the most representative. (i.e. FXall / reuters / EBS are all about 100bn per day... Citi is close to 1trillion)

They have reported marginally higher volumes, but the breakdown is quite interesting. Mostly real money selling (i.e. equity outflows leading to EUR selling etc) if I can, I'll try and dig up a deutsche piece on it in a minute.
  • #912,644
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:10am Jul 26, 2014 10:10am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Ah, you are here .. The Euro has been a disaster since we last spoke 9th of July. Any interesting FX daily volume chart from your expensive terminal?! I have tried to locate any Reuters or Bloomberg's volume report, but no luck! I only found one for FXALL from Reuters reporting a surge in voulme on 11th of July. Any help would be really appreciated
Not Bloomberg or reuters but this data comes from Interactive Data, may help you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vachus.png Size: 16 KB
Attached Image
  • #912,645
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:12am Jul 26, 2014 10:12am
aforementioned DB piece from last week on EUR flow. figure 2 is the interesting one.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf DB_FXDaily (1).pdf   250 KB | 378 downloads
  • #912,646
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:13am Jul 26, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} There are a few things you may be referencing... Are you looking for option volume as per the DTCC or are you looking for spot volumes? Volumes reported by citi might be more interesting to you, espeically as they are the largest FX house in the world, so their volume is the most representative. (i.e. FXall / reuters / EBS are all about 100bn per day... Citi is close to 1trillion) They have reported marginally higher volumes, but the breakdown is quite interesting. Mostly real money selling (i.e. equity outflows leading to EUR selling...
Man, you are awesome ..

(The bold part is what i was thinking about few days ago, that Euro weakness is either will lead into Europe sell off or drag into a Europe sell off .. something that threaten the fragile growth momentum they are having, (( Draghi, are you listening?! )))
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,647
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:18am Jul 26, 2014 10:18am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Man, you are awesome .. (The bold part is what i was thinking about few days ago, that Euro weakness is either will lead into Europe sell off or drag into a Europe sell off .. something that threaten the fragile growth momentum they are having, (( Draghi, are you listening?! )))
CME volumes, which are about the same as Fxall / EBS / reuters have not budged when looking at a 5-period moving average (to smooth out the noise of one data heavy day etc)

then again, as said, CME volumes are only the US CTAs and no-one else. European names may be different.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CME volume.png Size: 21 KB
  • #912,648
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:29am Jul 26, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} CME volumes, which are about the same as Fxall / EBS / reuters have not budged when looking at a 5-period moving average (to smooth out the noise of one data heavy day etc) then again, as said, CME volumes are only the US CTAs and no-one else. European names may be different. {image}
Thanks for the report, i'm reading it currently ...

I haven't screamed reversal yet, and my bullish view on the Euro - doesn't necessary mean i see the USD going into a sell off. The pound seems to be retracing, the Aussie is also having problems climbing higher, the Canadian Dollar seems also having problems , the Yen well is the Yen and finally Euro is being sold on weakness. What puzzles me a bit is, i don't really see how the Dollar index will continue climbing on the back of Euro weakness ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,649
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:29am Jul 26, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Not Bloomberg or reuters but this data comes from Interactive Data, may help you {image} {image}
Thanks Rock, any link?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,650
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:33am Jul 26, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Thanks Rock, any link?!
No Link Vachus, I took screen shot from my independent data feed. Feed comes from Interactive Data from USA to my local platform. I export values to excel for you to see values. If you want I can upload excel it self if you want.
  • #912,651
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:36am Jul 26, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} No Link Vachus, I took screen shot from my independent data feed. Feed comes from Interactive Data from USA to my local platform. I export values to excel for you to see values. If you want I can upload excel it self if you want.
That would be great Rock
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,652
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:36am Jul 26, 2014 10:36am
Quoting OnlineAddict
In most cases, 70-80% retailers have to be wrong, for the trend to change in their favor.
Quoting Davit
70% were short on GU and fell from 7180 to 6960 75% short on NU 8830 to 8550
So that only confirms my point, every trend has to change someday and there has to be a pullback to every spike eventually, but banks mostly wait until they have made enough money from retail before they "allow" that.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,653
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:40am Jul 26, 2014 10:40am
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} where do u suggest to close it off?
I personally use a tight SL, after the market has tested a certain level a few times, I use a SL 5-10 pips above/below the level. Or I get out of a trade on the next pullback, but most of my losses are 5-15 pips and most gains are 20-100 pips. I prefer to add to a winning trade during a trend, but the past few weeks it was impossible, as there was no clear trend in GU, which I was trading and the price was spiking around the same numbers. I wish it decided a direction already, either long or short, I don't care.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #912,654
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:44am Jul 26, 2014 10:44am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} That would be great Rock
Here you go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EURUSD_VOLUME.xlsx   217 KB | 296 downloads
  • #912,655
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:50am Jul 26, 2014 10:50am
Hope to establish a trend in the day time, there is a bullish alt bat pattern
Your friendly - esmaeel jadidi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 51 KB
  • #912,656
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:06am Jul 26, 2014 11:06am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} CME volumes, which are about the same as Fxall / EBS / reuters have not budged when looking at a 5-period moving average (to smooth out the noise of one data heavy day etc) then again, as said, CME volumes are only the US CTAs and no-one else. European names may be different. {image}
One last thing, if u have the time: Have u read or have any recent paper talking about the drop in US Core CPI?! wasn't the largest drop in core inflation since 2008? Wouldn't that support Yellen's argument of the higher inflation being noise ... any opinion / paper / speculation on that issue?!

@Rock, Thanks i got it
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,657
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:13am Jul 26, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} sorry, I'm a bit confused at your chart... Have you taken the ICE dollar futures and subtracted the EURUSD from it? seriously?
Its dollar index subtracted from EURO. not euro/usd ... Obviously they trade inversely with almost -1 correlation
  • #912,658
  • Edited Feb 4, 2016 1:30am Jul 26, 2014 11:17am | Edited Feb 4, 2016 1:30am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} One last thing, if u have the time: Have u read or have any recent paper talking about the drop in US Core CPI?! wasn't the largest drop in core inflation since 2008? Wouldn't that support Yellen's argument of the higher inflation being noise ... any opinion / paper / speculation on that issue?! @Rock, Thanks i got it
It might have been the largest drop in CPI since 2008, but it doesn't matter in the slightest... some perspective on it.

It is so close to 2% that it really is of no concern if it misses by 0.1% etc etc

Here is some reports on that CPI, two from BAML / /one from barclays

http://rcr.ml.com/Archive/11409220.p...82969d98198dc4

http://research1.ml.com/C?q=CEFgJ4Ue...a.com&h=YRqgtA

*if that link doesn't work then I've attached file too.

{ copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US CPI.png Size: 43 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Barclays Live.pdf   105 KB | 335 downloads
  • #912,659
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:19am Jul 26, 2014 11:19am
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} Its dollar index subtracted from EURO. not euro/usd ...

what EURO? Euro-Index?

Then you might show a chart, where DX-EUROx is showed towards EURUSD
  • #912,660
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:27am Jul 26, 2014 11:27am
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} Its dollar index subtracted from EURO. not euro/usd ... Obviously they trade inversely with almost -1 correlation
please, please, please tell me you know that /6E is EURUSD!

because it is.

I can't believe you can not know that. please tell me you know that.
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