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  • #912,621
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:51am Jul 26, 2014 2:51am
Quoting Deutschland
The analyst consensus is 1,29 {image} {image}
Sorry not laughing at you but "analyst" the jokers were predicting 1.42 GU 1.74-75 and now same gurus go into another extreme
You are better off not reading single one.It has been proven analysts are terrible traders and reason why they make their money on pontifications and not on trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,622
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:56am Jul 26, 2014 2:56am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Sorry not laughing at you but "analyst" the jokers were predicting 1.42 GU 1.74-75 and now same gurus go into another extreme You are better off not reading single one.It has been proven analysts are terrible traders and reason why they make their money on pontifications and not on trading.
Yes, I agree with you, but I shared that analyst's consensus because it match my projection. Greets
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #912,623
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:14am Jul 26, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Deutschland
{quote} Yes, I agree with you, but I shared that analyst's consensus because it match my projection. Greets
Euro is supposed to be at parity by now with the dollar or not exist at all according to those clowns a few short years ago.
We will always find something that supports our assumptions and cling to that .

I just think in terms of odds. Thats it. FF is not an indicator of trader positioning or sentimanet ditto for Oanada

Always stay small... duration beats direction. I will add to long up to .3392 targeting .3474 for exit.
Expect to see more short interest at .3474 and i expect shorts to fail ... its a movie i have seen many times before.
Continuation of geopolitical issues would save shorts on a rebound to that level.
  • #912,624
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:22am Jul 26, 2014 7:22am
There is nothing wrong about predicting 1.42, it is very possible, actually anything is possible but this move would be only logical, so I don't understand why people would ridicularize this view. What we need in order for that to happen is a support that works, (so far Eur has been breaking all of them down) and a Fed dovish statement. I particularly ,wouldn't trade long apart from crucial areas like 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3060 because I see them with great R:R, however the size of the positions will never be as big as if I was trading short. Traders become sometimes so attached to certain ideas and these ideas are reinforced even when everything is saying otherwise, staying flexible with a good technical view is the best approach. Price action gives little clues every now and then, you just have to put the puzzle together.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #912,625
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:47am Jul 26, 2014 7:47am
Just for the sake of helping,

It's better if someone doesn't have an open position on EURUSD or any EUR / USD pair or to take this week off. This is going to be the slaughtering week, unfortunately it's unknown who will be slaughtered. But by the end of this week, we either will be at $1.33 or $1.38

Wednesday, July 30 USA GDP for 2Q. If the reading comes out in negative again, i'm expecting huge turmoil in the bond / currency markets. So far, it seems market is so overally short EURUSD for the event, and the position covering could be epic in nature. The opposite is true if the number is so green, near / above expectation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thursday, 31st July, CPI Flash estimate. This one alone moved the Euro October 2013 around 300 pips in few days, and beat it down off the top. Any positive / negative swing the reading will have great repercussions.

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* In case you would like to use a stop loss below 100 pips, please include in ur plans some nice slippage of at least 50 pips if not more.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,626
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:05am Jul 26, 2014 8:05am
My personal opinion is, the Euro is suffering some type of a speculative bubble - it is by far the type of a place when u short, because someone else is shorting and making money. Only when price start reversing, u lose all the money u made - trying to catch the next top. When i open FT.com / Bloomberg / Reuters and everyone with his dog shorting ... then something is going wrong! But for a better prescriptive, i'm looking at DXY ( Dollar index)!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USA is not a banana republic, it's currency has to move on it's own merits - not side effects of another central bank policy. The reason i don't buy into " The Mighty Dollar shall rise again" is the last two buy outs happened on the Dollar index, was mainly triggered by Euro weakness / not Dollar strengthen. If there were huge concerns over Europe's growth or a state of deflation, why the hell European bonds are being bought on any dip?!!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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But, as all speculative bubble market don't listen - they seems to be locked on to the song " Draghi want a lower Euro". Well, if this proves to be true - by the time he finishes, there won't be a European union that needs a currency anyway.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,627
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:26am Jul 26, 2014 8:26am
87 % of open lots traded are LONG ! Are you serious ? Monthly chart is bearish, weekly, daily, 4hr, and yet most people go long that pair. Does the majority of you enjoy loosing money ? It seems so.
Apart from TA there are many fundamental reasons too to go short, ECB, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, bad News from Germany and other EURO-Countries and so on and so on.....

Below you can find the actual analysis from an expert-trader, maybe it´s enlightening for some of you,

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-...st-2014-a.html
  • #912,628
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:46am Jul 26, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Deutschland
The analyst consensus is 1,29 The only way to make money on EURUSD is to go short! Poor people who are long.... as FF live accounts shows {image} {image}

FF live accounts are really no good source of info because lacking a huge number of accounts - so the power is poor.

Better are sources like the ones from Oanda, Dukascopy or for example FXCM.

There are data out, from FXCM, that their traders are right more than 50% of the time. But they hinted, that the problem is, that they nevertheless lose more money than they gain.

There are also other studies out, which literally show the same. The meme, that 80, 90, 95% of the traders lose money may be right, but it seems not to be related to their initial positioning.

So, as ever, be careful when using statistical data.

Sentiment data of small speculators have often shown, that they have a very good feeling for turning points.

Secondly: distinguish between short term, intermediate term and long term trades.

For all of you who have not read it:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf fxcm-traits-of-successful-traders-guide.pdf   2.6 MB | 479 downloads
  • #912,629
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:52am Jul 26, 2014 8:52am
The spread between dollar index and euro is at near extreme levels...

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This is a sell dollars and buy euro situation. Reversion to mean folks.
Sept of last year was last time we saw the spread this high... I won't bother telling you how that ended.
  • #912,630
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:06am Jul 26, 2014 9:06am
Quoting mediaboy
The spread between dollar index and euro is at near extreme levels... {image} This is a sell dollars and buy euro situation. Reversion to mean folks. Sept of last year was last time we saw the spread this high... I won't bother telling you how that ended.

Hi Merdaboy,

can you show us historical data, maybe over the last 10-20 years?

Thanks in advance
  • #912,631
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:06am Jul 26, 2014 9:06am
Quoting Vachus
Just for the sake of helping, It's better if someone doesn't have an open position on EURUSD or any EUR / USD pair or to take this week off. This is going to be the slaughtering week, unfortunately it's unknown who will be slaughtered. But by the end of this week, we either will be at $1.33 or $1.38 Wednesday, July 30 USA GDP for 2Q. If the reading comes out in negative again, i'm expecting huge turmoil in the bond / currency markets. So far, it seems market is so overally short EURUSD for the event, and the position covering could be epic in nature....
Excellent post my Greco friend

Just adding to it severe negative previous GDP was coming off from terrible winter.I believe next one will be positive
I am going to stay clear of any USD pairs until after 30th.Focusing on Aud/NZD
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,632
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:29am Jul 26, 2014 9:29am
Here you go infinitus

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I discount anything past 2010... So you can see the spread has been larger but not without a corrective pullback first.
I expect to see the spread increase to 80 and change before down move... The extent of down move is anybody's guess.

For those not familiar with futures pairs selling dx-6e is same thing as a long in euro/usd
I usually just trade the euro futures and don't bother with the dx side of it its not very liquid anyways...
  • #912,633
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:30am Jul 26, 2014 9:30am
Quoting FXSayWhat
Just some thoughts before weekend is here and get ready for a new trading week next week... So I kept telling and have been telling traders that he must have stop during trading; However, more than 90% the time, I was ignored. Below is an example I pulled from one of the LIVE fellow traders here (i have his system name removed of course). More than 30 days worth of consistent gain got eaten away due to no stop and poor trade management in the past two days or so. {image} I too have suffered large drawdown due to no stop protection in earlier trading...

You are Hilarious!

If memory serves, you have had to DELETE all Trade Explorers you've put up because they sank faster than the titanic and don't even have nerve now to put one up.

But yet...

Your words of wisdom are supposed to somehow enlighten everybody else?

You are a fantastic, what not to do, after it has already happened, market man.

PS...as all of your previous TEs were demo accounts, do you actually have any skin in the game?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #912,634
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:34am Jul 26, 2014 9:34am
Quoting mediaboy
Here you go infinitus {image} I discount anything past 2010... So you can see the spread has been larger but not without a corrective pullback first. I expect to see the spread increase to 80 and change before down move... The extent of down move is anybody's guess.
sorry, I'm a bit confused at your chart...

Have you taken the ICE dollar futures and subtracted the EURUSD from it? seriously?
  • #912,635
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:42am Jul 26, 2014 9:42am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Excellent post my Greco friend Just adding to it severe negative previous GDP was coming off from terrible winter.I believe next one will be positive I am going to stay clear of any USD pairs until after 30th.Focusing on Aud/NZD regards
Thanks Davit,

I honestly have no idea what the next US GDP will bring, but as i keep on reading - it seems everyone is locked on a 3% growth. Over the last 20 years, the USA GDP bounced off negative territory 4 times out of 5. So, i think there is merit to the speculation of a strong GDP reporting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USA-GDp.PNG Size: 137 KB


However, if u consider this analogy, then United states is heading into a recession Late 2015 or there won't be any rate hike at least till end of 2016. ( Something that could get u fired or mocked by Bloomberg's wizards, if u just said it)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USA-Funds-Rate.PNG Size: 142 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,636
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:48am Jul 26, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} sorry, I'm a bit confused at your chart... Have you taken the ICE dollar futures and subtracted the EURUSD from it? seriously?
Ah, you are here ..

The Euro has been a disaster since we last spoke 9th of July. Any interesting FX daily volume chart from your expensive terminal?! I have tried to locate any Reuters or Bloomberg's volume report, but no luck! I only found one for FXALL from Reuters reporting a surge in voulme on 11th of July.

Any help would be really appreciated
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #912,637
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:51am Jul 26, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Ah, you are here .. The Euro has been a disaster since we last spoke 9th of July. Any interesting FX daily volume chart from your expensive terminal?! I have tried to locate any Reuters or Bloomberg's volume report, but no luck! I only found one for FXALL from Reuters reporting a surge in voulme on 11th of July. Any help would be really appreciated
What do you specifically want?
  • #912,638
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:51am Jul 26, 2014 9:51am
Quoting mediaboy
Here you go infinitus {image} I discount anything past 2010... So you can see the spread has been larger but not without a corrective pullback first. I expect to see the spread increase to 80 and change before down move... The extent of down move is anybody's guess. For those not familiar with futures pairs selling dx-6e is same thing as a long in euro/usd I usually just trade the euro futures and don't bother with the dx side of it its not very liquid anyways...

Hi Mediaboy,

thanks for answering.

Maybe I do not get it, but where is the spread between EU and DX on your chart. I only see the DX
  • #912,639
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:53am Jul 26, 2014 9:53am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Thanks Davit, I honestly have no idea what the next US GDP will bring, but as i keep on reading - it seems everyone is locked on a 3% growth. Over the last 20 years, the USA GDP bounced off negative territory 4 times out of 5. So, i think there is merit to the speculation of a strong GDP reporting. {image} However, if u consider this analogy, then United states is heading into a recession Late 2015 or there won't be any rate hike at least till end of 2016. ( Something that could get u fired or mocked by Bloomberg's wizards, if u just said...
Something worth reading Vachus that Feds do expect positive outlook

"WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it planned to stop adding to its bond holdings in October, in a sign of its confidence that the economy is gaining strength even as the central bank gradually withdraws its support.
The decision, described in an account of the Fed’s most recent policy-making meeting in June, signals the end of one of the central bank’s most aggressive efforts to stimulate the economy. The Fed, which started reducing its monthly purchases in January, said it planned to add a final $100 billion to its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities over the next four months, for a total of $1.5 trillion."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/bu...-program-.html
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #912,640
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:55am Jul 26, 2014 9:55am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Mediaboy, thanks for answering. Maybe I do not get it, but where is the spread between EU and DX on your chart. I only see the DX
I was also confused at this...

All he is showing is the DXY minus about 1.3 as a value. I.e the DX with a different number

I don't think he quite understands the maths involved.

attached is DX vs (DX-EUR) *hint, they're the same thing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXc1 chart.png Size: 61 KB
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