Gramps' Greedy Indicator

This is a rookie write-up of something pretty strange. It was made up funny on purpose, for lack of any explanation.
But if it were a waste of time or a lark, I would never go to this length.

Improbability, probably.

"Now you see it, now you don't."

This post is derived from Mr. Steve Hopwood’s "#7 blank template".
That strategy concerns BBs and takes the outside/in view.
Info @ Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0 @ Forex Factory

The #7 looks for less risk entries after price has crossed back inside with the help of a 1MA and a +3 forward shifted 25MA BB cross.
I added a third 25BB, -3 back shifted, purely out of ornery (Blue on templates).

Now another point of interest turns up on the outside, rather complimentary but removed from the action:

Crosses of the Blue, -3, 25BB and chart bars determine a price point through which a horizontal line can be drawn.
The significant ones seem to be found during price runs, trends etc., along with well sloping BBs.
I only consider ones that occur when the Blue BB is on the outside, being “shaped” by PA.
Not when PA pokes across the MA and hits the blue one, by then seen inside mostly.

The premise is that these horizontal lines (can) behave as is expected from traditional S/R.

No way was this going to be posted. Just some point turns up where things click funny.
Enough for a write-up, but along the lines of crop circle stories, good for a medium laugh.

**************

Let’s set out some helpings of Snake Oil and Cherry Pie. A lure to both the greedy and the visionary.
You too, of course. Siddown. Pass the salt.

Gramp's Greedy Indicator:

He called it something much nastier, with good reason. He went the wrong way the second time it fired at the bottom in '95.
Didn't see him much after. But we did well off it later in '99, '05, again in '08 - '09.
Never moved the line, wouldn't know how to. If it works … Can you help?

USDJPY Monthly. Here, use gramps greedy indicator.

This looks dicey now. Gramps used to say: "Price at the line, turn-around time". But when last I saw him ... How did it go?
Yeah: "Double pending hedge over/under and walk away. Lift a leg another day". Thanks Gramps. If only I knew what you meant.

My son put his line on and is looking at the weekly. He tells me I should trade it there.
Maybe he is right, but I like it the old way. "Look ahead, be glad".

**************

[edit] To avoid confusion: The template above only shows what is in the picture on the USDJPY.

At the foot of the post is an mq4, Greedy Bands Back Bands that draws all the BBs and sets lines on all pairs. Not originally planned.

The template above only "fits" on Monthly TF on USDJPY, zoom out to see most you can.
The general principle holds on all pairs and TFs. These points are more rare in higher TFs but seem more significant.
Suggested BB settings: from 20 to 25 SMA period, Standard Deviation 2.0

The pic above is more than 3 year old. Putting the tpl on today and checking price action is outright creepy.

Greedy left me staggered and still has got me going chasing down the *#? of it all.

Some more info and pics will be along, but if you already know why this shows up, please hold off on posting.
It would be a bit of a spoiler for people chasing things down.
That is an excellent exercise all by itself, as it involves no end of running through TFs, squishing the display, laying on lines and checking both ways …

//----------- Downloads and Temp Info -----------+

New October 15, 2014:
Back Bands.mq4
Back Bands is a complete replacement for Greedy Bands.mq4, which should be scrapped if in use.
If you are new to the thread, just use Back Bands instead when checking out the earlier posts.

Please see Post #44 and up for further descriptions of this mq4 in particular.
The zip also holds User Information concerning the Input Box and a sample spread sheet of file output.


Note: 00sd Mu.mq4, (post #30) and full documentation have been moved into the SD-Kit zip.

This can be downloaded from first post at: Z-Score Kit @ Forex Factory

Average Joe.mq4, a follow up, is also ready to go in there.
In order to not waste your time, it is best to get the updated code for the other z-score basic indicators.
The old documentation is still useful and describes Customizer.mq4, which can set a common SMA Period for a whole chart outlay.

Another indicator is available on: Rolling Market - MTF Bar indicator
It could be well suited for Rookies and deals strictly with Pips.
If you found this thread a bit too much, maybe you can run with that one. Good Luck.

Some extra bars maybe needed to see the BBs that far back:

Yesterday, so far away ...


At present; July 15, 2014:


and another live one, right on the money ;-) Can't beat mother nature.

Set_up: Three BBs, 20-25 SMA, 2.0
One normal, one +3 forward and one -3 back shifted.

awesome indicator

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/213524...nshot-6961-png

Hi juhanimi,

Yes. Your lines are firmly drawn with clear intent and strong deliberation.
Avoid unnecessary reflection as therein lies the source of dissolution and disarray.
True mastery opens the way to Yearly and higher Time Frames along with dealer rebates ;-)

Some follow up to the rookie intro. There isn't much to add really as it is a fair starting point.

This is NOT a Trading Strategy or a System.

Further down the Points of Interest and Lines are dubbed “PI and PI Lines” for brevity.

The Works:
Here we are, zooming along an outside BB, looking at wins or losses piling up.
And wouldn't it be nice to run across a sign that says: "Last Exit for winners cashing in. Losers to remain on board. Re-entry imminent."
Yeah, nice, give over.

Some signal can be made to show up. It is a price value to the crim's last digit, a price point on a bar; Stable, WYSYG …
But it's three bars late and as you get off your ride, you now have the satisfaction of seeing it fire, from far away mostly.

It says: "Turnaround has come and gone, see you later".

As the BB's Close value of the current bar paints back across a three bar period it may hit that prior bar.
If it does it marks price outside the cross as more improbable (out of whack), relative to later price levels to the inside.

It is a very handy visual marker, which can and will show up in all time frames.
In the higher TFs, they are more rare and significant. Pretty coherent, overall.

Quick & dirty, visual fix only, no numbers, hard to trade ... Only one standard indicator; a BB & 2 clones..
There are no rules, at least against common sense, so if you see a close touch, look at it especially in the higher TFs.
Grouped ones are pretty suggestive.

Trader Stuff:
Focus on the stronger BB runs and their tops and put your lines on the PIs.
The more significant ones will be found along there.
When markets are ranging the cloned BBs nicely point out channels.

Does a PI Line initially behave as a short S/R (turn around) line?
Using habitual price points for S/R, do these show other levels?

When price comes back, look for mid-long S/R and when broken its opposite.
Check both ways for any distant price action at/off it.
In consolidation, does it set up an upper/lower limit for a channel, a mid-channel line?

Put some lines on, in the higher TFs, to gauge any S/R in the lowers, etc.
Take bearings from your familiar Indicators.

Greedy Bands.mq4

Three BBs are hard to manage, especially when changing Periods or setting Standard Deviation units.

Greedy Bands.mq4 clones all those lines, so one dialogue box sorts the lot.

Please get it from foot of first post.
It’s a bit short order kind, so if indicator lines turn buggy (straight lines, graphics “off”), click to some other TF or limit the number of Bars tested.

The intention was to give an overview, but since the USDJPY Monthly is currently “show casing” some PI Lines at their very best, just put up Greedy on the pair and watch along. Date on the visuals is July 17, 2014:



On the left, 1993, new market low and signal.
After some traffic, the signal line runs uninterruptedly across until 2006 where 2 new ones fire.

Solid Red and Green PI lines mark the crosses, with added dotted Bar High and Low markers.
Those correspond more closely with traditional S/R derived from previously seen price levels and allow for judging interplay.
The right, longer part of the dotted lines points out the bar the greedy BB originated from.

What is disorienting is to be potentially informed so early, way out of left-field, when normally one looks back from the present and meets up with more recent events first.

So a paradox; blast from the past, back to the future … Early bird gets the worm!
Afraid not. The signal is 3 Bars late and your worm is toast ;-)

But later, when price reacts conclusively, reveals a hardening S/R level, or marks mid- top- and bottom channel lines, that situation would be less unexpected.

As for a closer look at the present:

Still USDJPY, Monthly


Set interesting PI Lines to “Ray” and rename them, if you wish to keep some around for reference.

We find 3 Green lines from Low Hits (below the SMA) and a more recent Red High Hit.
Pretty tight spread. I wouldn’t know how to define this in market terms, but I know my classics.

Dynamically seen, it becomes a “sinking galleon with masts being chopped off at the deck-line” pattern.
Or more up to date, laser beams and stuff. The Force is still with us ;-)

Anyway, a whole lot of traders are hunkered down at price in an MN1 Bar being whittled down top and bottom.
It’s not happening up front guys … somebody should warn them.

In the supposedly real world, the 120 period SMA is sitting at 98.913.
Under price now and a rough indication of the last 10 year up and down, relatively very close on that scope.

The Fibs line up very well here. No idea how that works out overall, but have a go or try other familiar tools.

Some things cannot be invented:



The two top lines, red and green, are from signals 6-7 years apart, to within one pip …
The two bottom lines from 20+ and 7 years ago are at 28 pips.

This pair cherry picks many things to look for when running down normally more confused layouts.

The mission is to find an underlying effect that might be in play; psychological, market theory, statistics etc.
Any more would be out of place in a rookie forum.

If somebody thinks I am out of line and needlessly confusing participants, please put in your opinion to give a perspective.
That is after playing with the mq4 of course ;-)

I'm sorry if some people were led into thinking we are actually doing a rerun of Trafalgar or Death Star.
The fact is, I looked at these plays for a long time before hitting on a possible "why".
It did not occur to me to post Gramps' Indicator, until some recent satisfaction in working things through, made it more plausible.

It was a great surprise to find additional lines on this pair at current price, and that led to an mq4.
Now I'm utterly gob smacked by this to the pip stuff.
To a rookie everything is new and equally plausible, so you could probably step on board conceptually without a hitch.

Not so, many experienced traders, I'm sure. Me neither, and that despite pursuing this matter for the last 3 years ...

You will have noticed by now that, at the point of trade, things are not so rosy and that the BBs still fake out the same.
Also, there are an unexpectedly high number of bars that the mq4 qualifies, many falsely, and sorting them is impossible.

Easiest would be to follow down from the Monthlies and the Weeklies to observe those lines in detail in lower TFs.

As for experimenting, you can vary two variables:

1. SMA period, at 25 by default in mq4.
2. Units of Standard Deviation (useStdDev in dialogue box); any positive double! i.e. 1.96, 2.33 ...

and of course, the pairs.

One can take things only so far in one go.
Also, it's back to the drawing board until further notice.

Rookies, please feel free to post anything in this thread, or engage in discussion.
In particular cherry picked screen shots, can't have too many. Relieve me of a chore ;-)

Others might PM me if interest, or take it up in other threads.
Of course, the old fallacy is always lurking around the corner and somebody will kindly point it out then.

**************

All this Pie is getting old fast, let's conclude with the Snake Oil:

Early 2011, recently a rookie, your trader friend has invited you along to the end-of-month bash of his crew.
All big time traders showing leverage, boasting, backslapping. The usual.

Naturally, the discussion turns to the recent all-time low on the JPY:


How, the question goes, does one call the next big move without any existing prior price info at these levels?
These guys never TP at less than a thousand pips, so it's a serious matter.

Guts, you hear. Savvy, intuition, fundamentals, probabilities. The usual.
Bets are taken, levels set. Luckily, you have the new notebook that you got to trade 24/7.
With a nod and a wink your friend springs for you and you are on for 10 large.

Years later, by now a well respected and successful trader yourself, you run into the same crowd again.
They are going nuts, you won the pot!



Hmm ... at least that old indicator was good for something, never managed to trade off the sucker.
They want to know how you did it. You hem and haw, not going to come clean on that one.

The usual, pure luck really. But let me tell you this story about a guy they used to call Gramps ...

The Greedy Bands mq4 has been updated to reject false signals.

*** Make sure you get it from first post, please, as otherwise nothing much can be followed. ***

Many meaningless or misleading lines are gone, but this does not make any remaining lines somehow valid or of importance.
When they are, little doubt is left.

Not all interesting lines can be found by the mq4. Some rejected close touches turn out to be quiet significant

If you find yourself here without having read the thread, please do so before going further. 15-20 minutes tops.

One cannot help noticing the utter simplicity of what is not even a set-up.
Every PI line the mq4 draws can be reproduced by hand. There are no calculations as such involved.

Taking some note of the points just mentioned, will help to better appreciate the next posts.

yes, still many false signals, anyways if you find signal in these places, then it is a go, think so

dont know why this happens, maybe time for change direction

hmm... Miten ongelmasta otetaan kuvakaappaus?

Just kidding, sorry. What pair/TF?

I do hope all false signals have been eliminated. Those are the ones one would ignore during a visual inspection.
Now only bars should pass that at least stick out of the normal BB.

A completely standard indicator, meant as a filter to obtain a sufficient number of trade opportunities, is used.
It's output is shifted back, and now points out where relatively higher levels of StdDev were reached on prior bars.

Those deviations do not have to be extreme for a pi line to be drawn, so we are not checking that value to see if it is really high, like over 3.0
It seems rather that one picks up on points were the market at that moment and in such a TF, was being force-fed pips.

S/R sets up, unseen, below the highs and above the lows where everybody was buying or selling the last pip at the same time. So to speak.
When this occurs in the higher TFs especially, S/R can persist and be marked as such by price, and the market will pick up on that as a new level.

It is entirely possible that nothing will show and then, later than sooner, the boot comes in.
That's how rookies can win bets off traders with big watches ;-)

Nothing is calculated. We just somehow watch the market set internal levels.

ja, jetzt bekomme ich es, vielleicht
have to study more

anyways, beautiful indi,,,Schweizer Uhrmacherarbeit

thanks

btw..."Now you see it, now you don't." is same than Kansas City Shuffle

All developments since first post are as new to me as to you.
Even if you did things by hand or read the thread and just looked at the mq4, you must have spotted how some of these "natural" lines are uncanny.

Setting the option showRay to "true", will draw all possible lines as rays.
This can be meaningful on monthlies and weeklies, but otherwise one has to limit the bars tested.

Uncanny? Well, yes.
The market was pointing them out all along; double tops 10 years away. Nuts^2 and a pretty long set-up ...


That is in the blue cut-out below.

In the circle on the left is a point that just missed qualifying. The orange bar and green lines make up an almost perfect Main Average.
Ignoring the market, which is always a sensible thing to do ;-) one is presented with a striking suggestion of distribution around a horizontal axis:



And left with a sense of awe that somehow things are taken care of anyway while we mess up front.

because i am a rookie, i can say whatever, and thats it,
so why (every)things work like this, it is just one "law of physics",
until we get new laws
everything has barriers, everything has playing field
it is just a way it is, it is intresting, dont know why
doesnt have to know why

God says in Bible His name: I am ....everything else says..HERE I am...lol

so, there must be some reason to use 3 bb,
so why not 2 with -1 & +1

flat candy looks good, maybe great
if i understood correct that flat candy is copy of that veroniques version,
and she had a some ma there 2,
do you use something in it

Thank you for sharing this, and yes wonder is a virtue.
The way these posts are shaping up does not give me any leeway to add "deep thinking" to the pot.

For even showing this, especially in a rookie thread, I should be drawn and quartered.
Preposterous claims as to unseen S/R, ridiculous predictive levels. What next? Dunno, hang around ;-)

Remember you were asked to pass the salt? Rookies, better break out a barrel and lay it on.
Do not let any of this distract you from learning the trade, you simply do not have the time to waste on what is at present pure conjecture.

I actually wouldn't mind to see these presentations debunked. Take a load off.

My goal was to get people interested in the z-score. It is used to measure price deviation in relation to the current Standard Deviation.
To a large extent one can observe events outside the BBs, such as seen on greedy bands.

All you need is in the zip here @ Z-Score Kit @ Forex Factory
It has full (need to read) documentation, and some helper software to work different indicators together.
The main indicator to use is called flat candy.mq4, and that will be added to all further screen views.

After the SMA and the SD, the Z-score is a third major statistical tool.
Anything you can pick up on it should serve all down the road.

Fortunately I got to work it up on mt4, but explaining things was beyond me then.
Luckily I found her presentation where one is walked through the z-score set-up.
She very wisely showed a use for it in trade, which might also get people interested.

"Z-Score Indicator" by Veronique Valcu
http://premium.working-money.com/wm/display.asp?art=344

Candy is not a copy, but a specific tool to study the z-score.
The kit also has the code to write programs.
It is a sandbox for investigation.

The z-score itself is a statistical tool which everybody is free to apply as they see fit.