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  • #912,081
  • Jul 22, 2014 3:56pm Jul 22, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting Ck87
I think we now have a situation where most long term bears want it higher and obviously the bulls do too….. 1.37 would be wonderful area to short again... I'm definitely a long term bear that wants it higher, both because I am long and because I want to short higher levels.
I am lost. I fear you expect $ from both directions. GL.
  • #912,082
  • Jul 22, 2014 3:59pm Jul 22, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I am lost. I fear you expect $ from both directions. GL.
I don't expect anything really because i've been burned enough times to know that anything can happen.

What I do know is that this pair is now in a downtrend after that major one day reversal from 1.4…. but it can stay sideways for quite a while before meaningfully breaking out lower.

If I wasn't short term trader and stuck to the long term only I would just be short and not buy this dip, looking to add to shorts on any meaningful rally higher (1.37) etc.
  • #912,083
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:17pm Jul 22, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I don't expect anything really because i've been burned enough times to know that anything can happen. What I do know is that this pair is now in a downtrend after that major one day reversal from 1.4…. but it can stay sideways for quite a while before meaningfully breaking out lower. If I wasn't short term trader and stuck to the long term only I would just be short and not buy this dip, looking to add to shorts on any meaningful rally higher (1.37) etc.
I think this is a good post.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #912,084
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:30pm Jul 22, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} heck, that doesn't make it easier for both, e/u and e/j. last time, we were here, we had a home-run, so I could risk these, but then again... no. did you look at the low of Feb., 2nd to March, 7th? if not, do it.
yeah that was the larger bounce anticipated ( just less then normal). i could be wrong. what would suck is for eu 3451 to break and the bounce be 3444/42...the little one here has not retraced. its in its own mofu. the other one could use a retrace also. i am just looking for as many other reasons as i can find
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,085
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:31pm Jul 22, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting Ck87
I think we now have a situation where most long term bears want it higher and obviously the bulls do too….. 1.37 would be wonderful area to short again...
//----
hey ck..... you are probably correct on all 3 points..... but i would 'pleasantly' surprised if we saw 1.37 again anytime soon..... that's over a 50% retrace.....

might have to be satisfied with 1.36......

soon people will be lookin back sayin, '1.34 would be wonderful area to short again'.......

the hard part now will be holding those shorts for 3000 pips.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #912,086
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:41pm Jul 22, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} heck, that doesn't make it easier for both, e/u and e/j. last time, we were here, we had a home-run, so I could risk these, but then again... no. did you look at the low of Feb., 2nd to March, 7th? if not, do it.
another in yellow

if you look at the uj.. the same thing.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,087
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:44pm Jul 22, 2014 4:44pm
If you look at the weekly......this is very much a bull......price hit the 100ema and the 200 is just below, the 3474 that just broke is the previous swing low, look at what happened when prices hit this level previopusly as mentioned in my previous post.......

Also now bears are really excited which is also a good sign to initiated longs..........

I am not saying this is going to reverse because of the above..... what I am saying maybe this could be a great RR...bears are all in...has broke...if it reverses it could fun...

my two lire..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #912,088
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:56pm Jul 22, 2014 4:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont have a reason for the ej to bounce except profit taking 136.44/136.68, and the support 136.xx in the same area.. 136.21 held it last visit. it does have a smaller setup for 135.71 and atm that mid is where it is, mid at 1.36.59 so using the db it does have potential to bounce to 141.7 .. i doubt the euro has normal power any more. but it would take much profit taking to bounce a pair with the swap against it. that bounce could help eu bounce. just speculating...atm at 136.61.
I have a reason for ej to bounce. It is very close to monthly S2 which is the same as quarterly S1 at 136.47. The last significant low is 136.27 made on Feb 4th.

Right now euro is sitting at quarterly S1 at 1.3466, and the monthly S2 is just below at 1.3436. This month euro dropped from the middle of monthly R1 and pivot all the way to almost S2. It is highly likely to bounce at the current level.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #912,089
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:05pm Jul 22, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} but it would not take much profit taking to bounce a pair with the swap against it. that bounce could help eu bounce. just speculating...atm at 136.61.
edit... i didnt put not like intended in the original
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,090
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:08pm Jul 22, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I have a reason for ej to bounce. It is very close to monthly S2 which is the same as quarterly S1 at 136.47. The last significant low is 136.27 made on Feb 4th. Right now euro is sitting at quarterly S1 at 1.3466, and the monthly S2 is just below at 1.3436. This month euro dropped from the middle of monthly R1 and pivot all the way to almost S2. It is highly likely to bounce at the current level.
thats what i have.. just support.. nothing concrete to go with it.. i am in but my stops had to be wider then normal
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,091
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:10pm Jul 22, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} It either bounces now or breaks down 3502 and bounces near your 3451. Fib extension likes 1.272 and 1.618 very much. So if it breaks down now, the next bounce area is near your 3451, which is near quarterly S1 at 3465, which is at the edge of current market profile, a place mostly for big reversal. {image}
now it hits fib extension of 1.27 and 1.62 of last two up swings, and the edge of the current major market profile. It is at a place very attractive for bulls to go long for a big bounce.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #912,092
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:13pm Jul 22, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} now it hits fib extension of 1.27 and 1.62 of last two up swings, and the edge of the current major market profile. It is at a place very attractive for bulls to go long for a big bounce. {image}
glad u found something on the profile.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,093
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:13pm Jul 22, 2014 5:13pm
...as well, this can be possible !?
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  • #912,094
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:18pm Jul 22, 2014 5:18pm
Quoting Miguel.N
...as well, this can be possible !? {image}
yes yes yes
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #912,095
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:24pm Jul 22, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} glad u found something on the profile.
The peak, groove, and edge of market profile is S/R, and most significant levels appear there. when they coincide with fib levels, we have better confluence, especially for big edge and groove of market profile. Like before at 1.4, there was a big edge/groove of the current major market profile to block euro from going above.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #912,096
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:24pm Jul 22, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting Miguel.N
...as well, this can be possible !? {image}
anything is possible...that state of mind is per se' a great edge....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #912,097
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:29pm Jul 22, 2014 5:29pm
Quoting Miguel.N
...as well, this can be possible !? {image}
if you have a farm bet it on euro short. If you do not have a farm, bet your house on euro shorts. If you do not have a house, bet yourself on euro shorts. if you do not own yourself, bet your wife on euro shorts. If you do not have a wife, you have nothing to bet.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #912,098
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:35pm Jul 22, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Somehow I agree with you, despite all "bearishness"........ this is what happened last time she got here: those are weekly bars, scary? Well, we cannot predict the future with the past but......... {image}
Yes, it is very difficult to make a prediction ............. especially about future.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #912,099
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:38pm Jul 22, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} if you have a farm bet it on euro short. If you do not have a farm, bet your house on euro shorts. If you do not have a house, bet yourself on euro shorts. if you do not own yourself, bet your wife on euro shorts. If you do not have a wife, you have nothing to bet.
Which wife should I bet? first, second, third, fourth or fifth? ............................................... I think it will be more prudent to bet my neighbor's wife.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #912,100
  • Jul 22, 2014 5:41pm Jul 22, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Yes, it is very difficult to make a prediction ............. especially about future.
you are right.....but if to today is a sunny day.....there are more chances that tomorrow is going to be a sunny day. Is that a sure thing? NO....But probability is skewed on that possibility.....and if I am going to risk something, I would prefer to risk little for bigger gains.....
Wherever you go, there you are.
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