{quote} I will retain my move-1 until my move-2 and move-3 yields my $Basically I am hedging.
- #912,042
- Edited 9:40am Jul 22, 2014 9:23am | Edited 9:40am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts
{quote} Very good point again Looking at the averages there: Avg Long @:1.3571 Avg Short@:1.3424 All Avg @: 1.3555 So this might get to 1.3550ish area just based on that. My TP is well below 1.3550 so that makes me feel more confident with my trade then..I'm new to looking at all the trades @ FF.. that might actually provide some insight on how not to be like the 95% and trade against them. Anybody been successful at using the "Trades" to their advantage?
Well but seriously speaking i tried to develop some system on it. The thing is that it cant be used as crude reliable information to base entry on probably not even as side info, simply you have seen users before posting Net Short candles from retailers and calling upsides of big targets which never happen. Thing is you need COT report to add, MMs dont simply move price only becouse retailers are on one side, there is more going on than just that on targeting and there are other reasons hidden.But here was my analysis of SSI.
Conceptual representation, forgive my drawing skills:
http://prntscr.com/4583oq
http://prntscr.com/457l40
At this point for example sentiment on most reported brokers went into positive sharply. So most traders just started buying simply becouse price landed on previous strong structure.
Saying that most traders are on wrong side isnt any fiction, you can see from this chart how horrible it actually is. This is cumulation of EU price from 1.30 to 1.40, price was in strong up trend and yet with exception of two little green spikes retailers stayed deeply short all the time!
http://prntscr.com/457mlt
Even more extreme on GU, notice those shorts were already so strong on and before 1.7, we are (have been) 200 pips higher after that. And dont be fooled most of those retailers were taken out, its just new that keep comming and adding onto, not same players holding and adding- you can see this if you observe relation of SSI and Oanda position report that changes over time.
http://prntscr.com/457ndi
And here we go into down trend, and retailers go even more heavy. You can see completly out of sync on what should one do on market. You can see on left side while market was still bullish and there were strong bounces to buy, actually retailers were more interested to buy once market started down trend. This kinda seems that most retailers operate on system of hope, or gut feeling..it will reverse....sometime.
And here is one example that there is actually one quite strong info SSI offers is for example when you have retailers selling for while, and price was in up trend, and then price drops on some strong support, retailers will switch side into buying, while actual structure calls for break, now that is good signal to go on oposite side of retailers. But the thing is if you can read price structure ok you dont need that info from SSI.
http://prntscr.com/457so8
Another example:
http://prntscr.com/457vke
And absolutely my favourite one, it backs my conceptual example drawn up, we had up trend for long time, and then precisely where trend shift has happened retrailers switched sites (on wrong side). I mean its like comedy isnt it?
http://prntscr.com/457w4f
There are little SSI indicators out there, mostly becouse its bit hard to get realtime data (which is the most golden one) where non ECN brokers use it to trade against (some of them).
So with that being said not being disrespective but if you look for best traders on this forum you will see most of them are trend traders. Best thing any beginner or trader overall can do is switch to trend trading system, the rule is just to properly spot trends early with PA, not using MAs to do it.
So with that said there is one information which you might be interested to put in custom indicator, its when there is strong long lasting trend, with retailers mainly staying on one side (actually not needed to separate this rule, becouse second part of statement follows first automatically
), then wait for lows break and retailers to shift sides, then look for big profits depending on size of previous trend.
- #912,045
- Jul 22, 2014 9:42am Jul 22, 2014 9:42am
- | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Giving earnings to the wife | 1,193 Posts
I don't even have a cool signature
- #912,046
- Jul 22, 2014 9:46am Jul 22, 2014 9:46am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} Interesting observation.. let's see if 95% of the traders are wrong
My JPY crosses are playing much nicer.
- #912,048
- Jul 22, 2014 9:48am Jul 22, 2014 9:48am
{quote} i would say that your line is placed a bit to high on the first point, and when you correct it you will notice that price has broken that line. the right question will we test the breakout? on daily we kind of have, but it does look a bit shady, thats why i look for some retest and to make sure we are not faking out but thats my view, and i have had a bad day predicting this monkey. I'm looking for 3560-3575 area for a real test.
thanks
- #912,050
- Jul 22, 2014 10:09am Jul 22, 2014 10:09am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
To those longing it anywhere around here, outside of scalpers - why? Go look at the weekly chart, this is always a smooth moving area down to at least 1.34.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #912,051
- Jul 22, 2014 10:12am Jul 22, 2014 10:12am
To those longing it anywhere around here, outside of scalpers - why? Go look at the weekly chart, this is always a smooth moving area down to at least 1.34.
1.3514, at least.
- #912,053
- Jul 22, 2014 10:19am Jul 22, 2014 10:19am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,929 Posts
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return:
35.8%
- #912,054
- Jul 22, 2014 10:25am Jul 22, 2014 10:25am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts
not euphoria follower
- #912,055
- Jul 22, 2014 10:44am Jul 22, 2014 10:44am
{quote} Doesn't each trend start with a countertrend move first? At each point you start a trend-trade, your bet is that it will go further its way. At each time you start a counter-trend trade, your bet is, that it will go reversing/retracing. The best long term trend-trades are started as counter-trend trades, because only at/near the potential reversing zones you have best R:R
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
- #912,056
- Jul 22, 2014 11:36am Jul 22, 2014 11:36am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 6,363 Posts
{quote} The trend is your friend until it stabbed you in the back
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
- #912,058
- Jul 22, 2014 1:05pm Jul 22, 2014 1:05pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,127 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #912,060
- Jul 22, 2014 1:18pm Jul 22, 2014 1:18pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,127 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can