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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,061
  • Jul 17, 2014 11:55pm Jul 17, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting yeniful
I'm 400,000 long on yen @101.150. holding on for a long time on this one. top hedge funds and major institutions or long on yen big time! dont forget this major point!
Very nice entry!!!

I am long just a few pips above you, at 101.18.

And yes, I agree COMPLETELY.
Quoting yeniful
holding on for a long time on this one
I am just starting to manage a small bankroll for a family member, only about $1k, but we're going long on the yen and plan to hold for the next 12 months or so!

It should be an easy 300% - 500% gain, but we'll see... I will re-adjust my thinking around then.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,062
  • Jul 18, 2014 12:27am Jul 18, 2014 12:27am
Quoting yeniful
top hedge funds and major institutions or long on yen big time! dont forget this major point!
If that is true, this might be the first time these people were actually right!
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  • #47,063
  • Jul 18, 2014 12:37am Jul 18, 2014 12:37am
I guess U/J could go a little lower from here, but the dips WILL BE BOUGHT...

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  • #47,064
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:10am Jul 18, 2014 2:10am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Haresh, UJ appears to be locked into the weekly ichimoku cloud. Sometimes previous and external S/R matters in the cloud, but more often does not. It may make an attempt to leave the cloud at about 102 (and possibly get rejected down again), or may now sink towards cloud bottom at about 98 - which also happens to be the previous triangle apex area. FYI, triangle theory often expects a return to the apex, so 98 ish would make sense in that regard. I know that Smash will scoff at such a suggestion.
True, USDJPY can drop to 98.00 mark. However, any move cannot be in a linear fashion and would always provide opportunities for fresh trade entry. Sub-100, 99.80 to be precise, is the expected first target on the downside, where I am expecting some bounce back before the pair resumes its near-term depreciating move.
  • #47,065
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:18am Jul 18, 2014 2:18am
Quoting HareshBM
True, USDJPY can drop to 98.00 mark. However, any move cannot be in a linear fashion and would always provide opportunities for fresh trade entry. Sub-100, 99.80 to be precise, is the expected first target on the downside, where I am expecting some bounce back before the pair resumes its near-term depreciating move.
Just be careful. I would urge that to you, and to Mr. Mpt...... Ok, and to myself....

And anyone else who trades...

The USD/JPY ain't going below 100... no way. It probably isn't going below 101 either.
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  • #47,066
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:21am Jul 18, 2014 2:21am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Just be careful. I would urge that to you, and to Mr. Mpt...... Ok, and to myself.... The USD/JPY ain't going below 100... no way. It probably isn't going below 101 either.
Again if you refer to my previous post, USJPY bearish move would be confirmed only if it breaks below the horizontal line support of the triangular pattern near 101.00-100.80.
  • #47,067
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:26am Jul 18, 2014 2:26am
Quoting HareshBM
Again if you refer to my previous post, USJPY bearish move would be confirmed only if it breaks below the horizontal line support of the triangular pattern near 101.00-100.80.
May the pips be with you, sir.

I'm off to bed... too late for me. Night all!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,068
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:33am Jul 18, 2014 2:33am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} May the pips be with you, sir. I'm off to bed... too late for me. Night all!
  • #47,069
  • Jul 18, 2014 2:53am Jul 18, 2014 2:53am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} May the pips be with you, sir. I'm off to bed... too late for me. Night all!
What's wrong with you? My son just got back from IL and he was up for at least another 4 hours every night.
  • #47,070
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:53am Jul 18, 2014 8:53am
I have a sell at @101.24. Should I wait or close it or wait? Can anybody give me any suggestion please?
  • #47,071
  • Jul 18, 2014 11:26am Jul 18, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Unfortunate
I have a sell at @101.24. Should I wait or close it or wait? Can anybody give me any suggestion please?
Whenever you open a trade you need 3 things.
1 - some reason or signal to open the trade
2 - some idea of where you expect to close the trade (your target)
3 - some idea of what would show that your original trade was a bad or incorrect entry.

So now we are at situation 3.

Maybe the short was a good idea, maybe it was not a good idea.
If it was a good idea, has anything happened to change your view or opinion?
If it was a bad idea then something has already changed your view or opinion, so when did that happen?

Now what?

If you believe that UJ will continue down sometime in the future......
....what do you want to do?
If you believe that UJ will not drop below your entry at some time in the future.....
....what do you want to do?

There, I have resolved your problem for you; and if I did not resolve your problem then go back to demo-trading until you can see what you should do at this point.

Have a great weekend!
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  • #47,072
  • Jul 18, 2014 11:47am Jul 18, 2014 11:47am
@Exodus Very nice comment. Thank you. You are fully right. I thought as you said everything. But I am a little afraid as there created a Hammer in the hourly chart.
  • #47,073
  • Jul 18, 2014 1:11pm Jul 18, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Unfortunate
I have a sell at @101.24. Should I wait or close it or wait? Can anybody give me any suggestion please?
Personally I believe it will be rising up and hitting the upper 102's soon. So I would not have a short at that spot.
  • #47,074
  • Jul 18, 2014 1:18pm Jul 18, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} Personally I believe it will be rising up and hitting the upper 102's soon. So I would not have a short at that spot.
I would either sell at the top of the range or wait until it breaks out below and hopefully retraces up myself.
  • #47,075
  • Jul 18, 2014 1:19pm Jul 18, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting Unfortunate
I have a sell at @101.24. Should I wait or close it or wait? Can anybody give me any suggestion please?
don't like holding bag over the weekend personally.. especially if it's not already in profit..
  • #47,076
  • Jul 18, 2014 4:43pm Jul 18, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting Unfortunate
I have a sell at @101.24. Should I wait or close it or wait? Can anybody give me any suggestion please?
I think, at this point, there's no harm in holding onto your short trade a little longer.

I too would not want to be short at 101.24, but since you are, here's what I would do. Also keep in mind you are only -10 pips so that's not bad at all and if you can afford to take a loss you may just want to consider it and move on to your next trade (hopefully a long one!).

If you don't want to take a loss, it seems as though the 4H chart is going to make one more push down on Sun-Mon, so there is a chance it will go down to .25 and you can close at breakeven. My objective would be to exit as close to B/E as possible, and then hop on the long train.

If, for some reason, U/J breaks .40 with force, I would exit the trade immediately and go long.

I hope that helps... it's just my 2 cents!
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  • #47,077
  • Jul 19, 2014 2:23am Jul 19, 2014 2:23am
from the daily chart, support is around 101.14, me still think that there is going to be a breakout to 102 level this coming week...
  • #47,078
  • Jul 19, 2014 2:34am Jul 19, 2014 2:34am
Quoting bluetoss
from the daily chart, support is around 101.14, me still think that there is going to be a breakout to 102 level this coming week...
Very nice 102
Capital management
  • #47,079
  • Jul 19, 2014 3:05am Jul 19, 2014 3:05am
hmm well looks like usd might get some power on tuesday and ppl will be closing positions on monday so if there is a good spot to reverse your move it might be on monday... personally i'll be looking more into gold/silver these coming weeks. looks like big moves are forming
  • #47,080
  • Jul 19, 2014 3:28am Jul 19, 2014 3:28am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think, at this point, there's no harm in holding onto your short trade a little longer. I too would not want to be short at 101.24, but since you are, here's what I would do. Also keep in mind you are only -10 pips so that's not bad at all and if you can afford to take a loss you may just want to consider it and move on to your next trade (hopefully a long one!). If you don't want to take a loss, it seems as though the 4H chart is going to make one more push down on Sun-Mon, so there is a chance it will go down to .25 and you can close...
I am also agree with you. Actually it went down to 101.08-10 after my short position but couldn't take profit as I was sleeping at that time. You can tell me about TP but I thought it would break the 101.15 level. Actually that was my fault. So now I also want to close it at breakeven if possible.

But if it breaks the 101.15 level then it will go more down otherwise that is true from @bluetoss
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