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  • #911,061
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:51am Jul 17, 2014 3:51am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} {quote} valady1974, just said the reason in my reply... I understand many are shoring EU, but let's ask ourselves what would it take to break the 1.3500 and what is the 1.3500 meaning to EU right now. The only thing on the table that would possible take out 1.3500 is the QE and USD rate decision as far as i would concern.
I get why you mentioned QE. However, Price fell without QE ending - so currently it's less about QE's impact as the threat of interest rate rises or moves to that effect. Yes, QE is related but even the slightest whiff of rates rising or falling for EU or US sends this baby into panic or madness.

Next, why 1.35 pricisely? I could argue that the 3 Feb low of 1.3477 is just as likely? If anything, it's probably likely that we will consolidate or bounce between 1.3470 and 1.3530 for a retrace to 1.3570 for another short potential. My bias is that we are headed sub 1.35 to 1.3470ish where I will look to reverse.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,062
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:54am Jul 17, 2014 3:54am
No need to rush for longs but there wont be any break of 1.35 as I see it. Besides that there are a lot who are going to take profit as soon as it goes to the 1.35 lows, which will see a spike on price.

by the way stops above 1.3540
  • #911,063
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:55am Jul 17, 2014 3:55am
Current sentiment seems to be that CPI data will show a small sign of improvement. If this is the case then we should see that bounce back up to 1.36. Failing that we are on ride down to key support at 1.3500. What happens from there is anyone's guess.
  • #911,064
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:57am Jul 17, 2014 3:57am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Was merely using GiveAChance's terminology where he described shorting from 3526 as suicidal. I was kindly pointing out that a seasoned trader who was shorting from the top was continuing to add to his directional trade - and by extension of that logic, mustn't be considered "suicidal". And Couldn't agree more about breaking the 4H low. 3520 has strong king fu.
yes haha kung fu, sorry I just jumped the gun again it is the privilege of the crazy, Im thinking the Camel pattern was Phanti,s and also agree about adding to green positions, actually the longer it hovers here I may jst add one myself
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  • #911,065
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:58am Jul 17, 2014 3:58am
Quoting vlady1974
Asian session could see a retrace to 1.35395 area. {image}
I wonder if this can be taken out pre NYC?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,066
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:58am Jul 17, 2014 3:58am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I get why you mentioned QE. However, Price fell without QE ending - so currently it's less about QE's impact as the threat of interest rate rises or moves to that effect. Yes, QE is related but even the slightest whiff of rates rising or falling for EU or US sends this baby into panic or madness. Next, why 1.35 pricisely? I could argue that the 3 Feb low of 1.3477 is just as likely? If anything, it's probably likely that we will consolidate or bounce between 1.3470 and 1.3530 for a retrace to 1.3570 for another short potential. My bias is...


Think that fx saver has an important point. QE will end in october. Bad news from the euro sone has minimal effect on th market. I think this is the main reason why the euro is not declining much.

It is all abouth QE WE see the rise of the euro parallell with the QE last year. End of QE the rates are rising. QE keeps the rates down.
  • #911,067
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:01am Jul 17, 2014 4:01am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Think that fx saver has an important point. QE will end in october. Bad news from the euro sone has minimal effect on th market. I think this is the main reason why the euro is not declining much. It is all abouth QE WE see the rise of the euro parallell with the QE last year. End of QE the rates are rising. QE keeps the rates down.
Well Draghi wants EUR down. If US stops QE, what will happen?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,068
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:04am Jul 17, 2014 4:04am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Well Draghi wants EUR down. If US stops QE, what will happen?

I am waiting for the euro to decline but I am not sure it is yet. Also we see when the traders buy the GBP the euro is declining.

Today we see the traders back on the euro again
  • #911,069
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:04am Jul 17, 2014 4:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the beauty of norm is you can set your own. you can loosen yours, so you get more trades with wider stops. or tighten it up some for less trades with less pips risked. its up to you. i use it to stay out of trades too early most times. pros and cons either way.. if your using indis and are making money. that Incorporated into the wait, will make more money. once you figure an example norm like 3102. you can use it to guide other trades for direction. for instance a 3451 target. when near it, and we haven't retraced to norm. i would be looking...
Went to sleep before reading your answer...

I'm thinking I have the tools to give me the reason for a retrace. The levels I "discovered" (an idea stolen from some wizard's posts from 2009) which work since 1995 seem to be very helpful. A "most times" approach with the shape and length of the candles allows one to think there will / won't be a rebound from any of the lines for these levels.

Not a fan of the indicators, so I will stick with my own levels-indicators.

I was playing a double game (moves/retraces/mofus and rebounds/break outs between levels), but the more I study it the more I think these can be combined to get a more powerfull and consistant technique. Thanks, G.
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  • #911,070
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:05am Jul 17, 2014 4:05am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Well Draghi wants EUR down. If US stops QE, what will happen?
HE does but i think the Germans will dictate on this, since its their economy that kind of shows the flow of the eurozone... I think the market will push Euro higher in order to get the ECB to do more than just negative rates... hence pushing exchange rate higher and pushing ECB into corner and must act with a QE of their own.

Lets see
Cheers!!
  • #911,071
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:05am Jul 17, 2014 4:05am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I wonder if this can be taken out pre NYC?

If the US data will not support the Dollar I think that this was the bottom now and in the next days we may see a test again of 1.3580ish area, were I will start building shorts again. Europe's inflation reports were on target with the expectations so I don't think we can go under 1.35 very soon .
  • #911,072
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:09am Jul 17, 2014 4:09am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} If the US data will not support the Dollar I think that this was the bottom now and in the next days we may see a test again of 1.3580ish area, were I will start building shorts again. Europe's inflation reports were on target with the expectations so I don't think we can go under 1.35 very soon .
Okay this, I understand as having little impact on volatility today.

Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} HE does but i think the Germans will dictate on this, since its their economy that kind of shows the flow of the eurozone... I think the market will push Euro higher in order to get the ECB to do more than just negative rates... hence pushing exchange rate higher and pushing ECB into corner and must act with a QE of their own. Lets see
This also makes sense, but you need an impetus. Just checking the calendar, the next major impact News Day is the 22 July for US Data... so we could be in limbo until then, unless some major institution decides to purchase a shitload of EUR at a low, sub 1.35 price
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,073
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:11am Jul 17, 2014 4:11am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I get why you mentioned QE. However, Price fell without QE ending - so currently it's less about QE's impact as the threat of interest rate rises or moves to that effect. Yes, QE is related but even the slightest whiff of rates rising or falling for EU or US sends this baby into panic or madness. Next, why 1.35 pricisely? I could argue that the 3 Feb low of 1.3477 is just as likely? If anything, it's probably likely that we will consolidate or bounce between 1.3470 and 1.3530 for a retrace to 1.3570 for another short potential. My bias is...

1.3500 holds a massive barrier option which requires a lot of volume to break - not sure when it expires I will dig for it

As for anybody saying a certain price cannot be breached until QE ends, well frankly the markets do not work like that, there is no rule that says it can't be taken out, it is all about volume and auction.

For my money, 3500 will get taken out when there has been enough consolidation above the level then a good run at it....

What is enough consolidation? depends how many start thinking this is a good place to take profit - it is unlikely that large traders will be going against the fundamentals at this level by taking longs, with low liquidity we could easily see any number up to 3580 today but more likely 355x will be enough claims and permits is the data to watch today, followed by philly or course..... good numbers we go down, bad numbers not so much.
  • #911,074
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:15am Jul 17, 2014 4:15am
In a few hours we got housing sales,and they are looking verry good.

I think we go much lower today.
  • #911,075
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:17am Jul 17, 2014 4:17am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} 1.3500 holds a massive barrier option which requires a lot of volume to break - not sure when it expires I will dig for it As for anybody saying a certain price cannot be breached until QE ends, well frankly the markets do not work like that, there is no rule that says it can't be taken out, it is all about volume and auction. For my money, 3500 will get taken out what it requires is enough consolidation above the level then a good run at it.... What is enough consolidation? depends how many start thinking this is a good place to take profit...
Looking at the fudamentals and Draghi wanting the euro down and still the euro is hardly declining. Well what can it be other than QE.
  • #911,076
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:19am Jul 17, 2014 4:19am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I wonder if this can be taken out pre NYC?
Biatch! My broker didn't fill it, but the price says 3539.2
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,077
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:22am Jul 17, 2014 4:22am
Quoting moneymove
will it break? {image}
Still unable to break. Not too optimistic. Move SL to BE ++
Attached Image
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #911,078
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:29am Jul 17, 2014 4:29am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} 1.3500 holds a massive barrier option which requires a lot of volume to break - not sure when it expires I will dig for it As for anybody saying a certain price cannot be breached until QE ends, well frankly the markets do not work like that, there is no rule that says it can't be taken out, it is all about volume and auction. For my money, 3500 will get taken out when there has been enough consolidation above the level then a good run at it.... What is enough consolidation? depends how many start thinking this is a good place to take profit...
Cheers Max!

I hear that MS have strong bids at 1.3520 but equally lots of selling above 550.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911,079
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:37am Jul 17, 2014 4:37am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Well what can it be other than QE.
Quoting MaxDoom
As for anybody saying a certain price cannot be breached until QE ends, well frankly the markets do not work like that, there is no rule that says it can't be taken out, it is all about volume and auction.
1. US yields is on the downtrend 2. while ECB refused to further easing. That goes the some of the reasons why EU is not going to break 1.3500 easily.

Max, normally i wouldn't put up a bold statement, but this time i am confident the 1.3500 is not going to break unless 1. ECB started further easing 2. Fed's QE is off the table.
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  • #911,080
  • Jul 17, 2014 4:40am Jul 17, 2014 4:40am
This place reminds of USA - it used to be the land of Freedom, now it's the land of RoboWarrior and Hiro Nakamura's students ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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