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USD/CAD

  • #5,841
  • Jul 16, 2014 5:02am Jul 16, 2014 5:02am
I will try to scalp volatility of this event in the eur/cad, in april we dont saw a huge movement, a decent movement in january, I looking my levels, I hope we see a 100 pips range at least
  • #5,842
  • Jul 16, 2014 6:35am Jul 16, 2014 6:35am
Almost time to rock... Got longs from 1.07, looking for 1.12 again eventually.


Looking for Poloz to be a little on the dovish side due to recent developments in labor market...

Canadian Dollar Back in The Crosshairs- http://trendersgame.com/2014/07/15/c...he-crosshairs/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 202 KB
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,843
  • Jul 16, 2014 6:44am Jul 16, 2014 6:44am
Possible outcome, tho even if USDCAD turns bearish today i'll hold my longs.
  • #5,844
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:02am Jul 16, 2014 7:02am
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,845
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:03am Jul 16, 2014 7:03am
Quoting Citiboy
  • #5,846
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:09am Jul 16, 2014 7:09am
Quoting Citiboy
Almost time to rock... Got longs from 1.07, looking for 1.12 again eventually. Looking for Poloz to be a little on the dovish side due to recent developments in labor market... Canadian Dollar Back in The Crosshairs- http://trendersgame.com/2014/07/15/c...he-crosshairs/ {image}
even if he is ultra dovish usd/cad cannot rise if euro is rising. I think we may have a top in at 1.080x area and we fall again
  • #5,847
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:13am Jul 16, 2014 7:13am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} even if he is ultra dovish usd/cad cannot rise if euro is rising. I think we may have a top in at 1.080x area and we fall again

Are you referring to short term or medium to long term...

In the short term sure...1.08 is reasonable for a pause and retracement...but if you think we are going lower than 1.06; hmm I don't think so...

Technically there was a lot of confluence in that area... we also have fib numbers hitting from lows of 2012...

As far as euro is concerned; medium to long term euro should fall (negative int rates) -- so you can't expect euro to make new highs...

GL!
  • #5,848
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:19am Jul 16, 2014 7:19am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Are you referring to short term or medium to long term... In the short term sure...1.08 is reasonable for a pause and retracement...but if you think we are going lower than 1.06; hmm I don't think so... Technically there was a lot of confluence in that area... we also have fib numbers hitting from lows of 2012... As far as euro is concerned; medium to long term euro should fall (negative int rates) -- so you can't expect euro to make new highs... GL!
i am referring to medium term. there is still pain for the dollar. euro is close to bottoming out. kiwi and gbp have already made new highs against the dollar. USD/JPY cannot cross 102 after yellen testimony. I am bearish dollar now
  • #5,849
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:23am Jul 16, 2014 7:23am
added my long, aiming to 1.08500...go go go BULLS
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #5,850
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:24am Jul 16, 2014 7:24am
Got in orders to take profit on 10% of my longs at 1.0815, I see 1.12 by year end off Fed moving away from easy policy.


BoC will remain dovish for a while, Friday's inflation print is very important. Need to see a decline CPI inflation
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,851
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:43am Jul 16, 2014 7:43am
Disappointed with the action till now.... Came down just as fast as it went up... statement is pretty dovish with inflation being termed as 'temporary'. Lets see what the press conference brings. Pretty sure we have bottomed out for now.
  • #5,852
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:55am Jul 16, 2014 7:55am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} i am referring to medium term. there is still pain for the dollar. euro is close to bottoming out. kiwi and gbp have already made new highs against the dollar. USD/JPY cannot cross 102 after yellen testimony. I am bearish dollar now
Yeah... It is obvious and intuitive to be bearish on the us dollar...

But on the weekly chart the usd index has seemed to bottom out too...

Eurusd... can break on the lower side from its range... (which it should have a month ago; when int rates became negative)

Gbpusd... getting into overbought territory on the weekly chart (even though I don't think there will be much downside)?

Even if interest rate hike will take a long time -- I still think there is a surprise dollar rally in the making!
  • #5,853
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:59am Jul 16, 2014 7:59am
BoC calls recent uptick in inflation caused by 'increases in energy prices' and 'temoporary sector specific factors'

'The banks judgement is that underlying inflationary pressures remain muted, given the persistent slack in the economy""
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,854
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:04am Jul 16, 2014 8:04am
Quoting Citiboy
BoC calls recent uptick in inflation caused by 'increases in energy prices' and 'temoporary sector specific factors' 'The banks judgement is that underlying inflationary pressures remain muted, given the persistent slack in the economy""

I think that was a no brainer...

It would have been suicidal for boc to raise interest rates...

(govt is looking to maximize revenue...best way for that is through more revenue collection via getting people employed)

meager inflation does not affect canada much... in fact it helps in asset appreciation!

Likewise asset appreciation is good for the housing market... which employs a lot of people and many facets of that sector help to further maximize government revenue... from the resale of homes (property or transfer taxes) to the gst collected on purchasing home improvements etc?
  • #5,855
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:10am Jul 16, 2014 8:10am
If Poloz reiterates the statements dismissal of the recent uptick inflation.... and the print friday misses expectations I think you can get 1.0850 easy. Press conf about to start, tune in..


good luck gents
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #5,856
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:12am Jul 16, 2014 8:12am
Should be coming down, the manipulation is done. And it was quite a bit of it.
  • #5,857
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:14am Jul 16, 2014 8:14am
Quoting justin7
Should be coming down, the manipulation is done. And it was quite a bit of it.
Manipulation? If any anything they just cleared out the stops for most people who were short. Path of least resistance is up.
  • #5,858
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:15am Jul 16, 2014 8:15am
http://download.isiglobal.ca/bocbdc/2014-07-16.html

In case anyone wants to watch the conference.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #5,859
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:16am Jul 16, 2014 8:16am
Quoting forexvegan
Anyone know if the conference is streaming? Link?
http://download.isiglobal.ca/bocbdc/2014-07-16.html
Disclaimer: I'm still new to forex
  • #5,860
  • Jul 16, 2014 8:19am Jul 16, 2014 8:19am
Quoting EpsilonVaz
{quote} http://download.isiglobal.ca/bocbdc/2014-07-16.html
Edited my post. Thanks buddy.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
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