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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,001
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:54pm Jul 12, 2014 11:54pm
Total newbie and really enjoy the knowledge of you all ! I noticed it spiked down on the last minute of trade on Friday against the Us & the Aussie and can't find any news advents that would of caused it ? your help would be appreciated .
  • #47,002
  • Jul 13, 2014 7:10am Jul 13, 2014 7:10am
Quoting Ken A
Maybe 101.00 if didn't hold then to X Or this is just the usual FOMC effects {image}
Hm, you have more experience with this - how is it usual for FOMC?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #47,003
  • Jul 13, 2014 7:52am Jul 13, 2014 7:52am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hm, you have more experience with this - how is it usual for FOMC?
Investor expectations before the FOMC minutes were released may have been that the FED would sound a bit more hawkish as far as the time frame concerning a future interest rate hike based on better than expected employment numbers, etc etc.

Instead, the minutes were basically the 'usual' regurgitated dovish doodoo. So the 'usual' effect of UJ selling off back to 101

I think the bulls were expecting hawk stew but got dove pie instead and ended up with egg on their face
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #47,004
  • Jul 13, 2014 8:19am Jul 13, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Investor expectations before the FOMC minutes were released may have been that the FED would sound a bit more hawkish as far as the time frame concerning a future interest rate hike based on better than expected employment numbers, etc etc. Instead, the minutes were basically the 'usual' regurgitated dovish doodoo. So the 'usual' effect of UJ selling off back to 101 I think the bulls were expecting hawk stew but got dove pie instead and ended up with egg on their face
lol ... thanks, makes sense.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #47,005
  • Jul 13, 2014 8:25am Jul 13, 2014 8:25am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} lol ... thanks, makes sense.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #47,006
  • Jul 13, 2014 8:46am Jul 13, 2014 8:46am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Yes, something like that. Natural disasters will cause a (rapid) decline in any currency or asset, from my understanding. No one wants them to happen. With that said, you could also just read a chart correctly (or a few of them, lol) and understand the same picture... downward bias for U/J at the beginning of the week, then support should be established mid-week and quite possibly hold. The alternative to that, imo, is more downside pressure, for say, 1 to 3 more weeks. I agree with posters above... 101.27 area can still be broken... but...
hi smash1820...if there's a rapid decline in Japanese currency because of the earthquake, then U/J should go up right?
  • #47,007
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:31am Jul 13, 2014 9:31am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hm, you have more experience with this - how is it usual for FOMC?
Attached Image
  • #47,008
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:35am Jul 13, 2014 9:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {image}
I am not in the boat. Not the worst news.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #47,009
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:41am Jul 13, 2014 9:41am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I am not in the boat. Not the worst news.
Directly or not you are in when related to USD
  • #47,010
  • Jul 13, 2014 1:14pm Jul 13, 2014 1:14pm
box... likely to break up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 254 KB
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #47,011
  • Jul 13, 2014 4:13pm Jul 13, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting jorgz
Hi Exodus, it sounds fundamental. Does that mean that natural disaster in Japan causes Yen to appreciate and drives the UJ to go down?
Hi, 'bin playin so not on the forum 'til now.

Last mega-disaster (all over the news, huge tsunami, countless TV programs about what happened and 'look at all the floating cars!') and the Yen went very strong for a while. TEPCO has still not fixed the nuclear plant and have now resorted to freezing the ground to retain the contaminated water while they think up a better plan.

There was massive damage to housing and other property. The injury count was not mentioned much, now that I think about it, so hopefully the number of casualties did not match the scale of the disaster.

Why did the Yen strengthen? Well after a lot of consideration I decided that Mr.&Mrs. Wasabi had to repatriate their money from Australia (Japanese housewives are very into the carry-trade it seems) in order to rebuild their houses, pay for hotels, or whatever. So that is my view; and it is not the first time that significant natural disasters have strengthened the Yen. So I guess we will find out in about an hour or two.

This is also the reason why some people recommend closing all positions before the market close - just in case something unforeseen happens.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,012
  • Jul 13, 2014 4:20pm Jul 13, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {image}
Hey Ken, I see you've busy with the crayons since the last time you posted this sketch....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,013
  • Jul 13, 2014 4:24pm Jul 13, 2014 4:24pm
The interesting thing is the TOPIX (Japanese banks index). I know I bang on about it all the time but it gave an early warning signal before the last big Tsunami. Looking at the news it doesn't look to me like there's much in the way of similarities except that the break down in the Topix looks ominous. It also broke down two days before the last Tsunami and gave USD/JPY longs at least ne or two days warning to get out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOPIX Yen July.PNG Size: 170 KB
  • #47,014
  • Jul 13, 2014 4:35pm Jul 13, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting Hyperion
The interesting thing is the TOPIX (Japanese banks index). I know I bang on about it all the time but it gave an early warning signal before the last big Tsunami. Looking at the news it doesn't look to me like there's much in the way of similarities except that the break down in the Topix looks ominous. It also broke down two days before the last Tsunami and gave USD/JPY longs at least ne or two days warning to get out. {image}
Ok, thanks

Here is the post where I read about the tsunami. There has been little coverage in the press - not that I have been looking that much - so maybe more of a fright than a calamity.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,015
  • Jul 13, 2014 7:25pm Jul 13, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting Hyperion
The interesting thing is the TOPIX (Japanese banks index). I know I bang on about it all the time but it gave an early warning signal before the last big Tsunami. Looking at the news it doesn't look to me like there's much in the way of similarities except that the break down in the Topix looks ominous. It also broke down two days before the last Tsunami and gave USD/JPY longs at least ne or two days warning to get out. {image}
Go ahead, bang away ... . Inverse correlation between JPY and TOPIX/Nikkei 225, so it's good to type an eye on those indices if you're trading Yen crosses. Japanese market up, JPY down (Yen crosses up). Japanese market down, JPY up (Yen crosses down). Right now, Nikkei 225 up .25% (basically at the opening), so there has also been slightly tick upward of USD/JPY ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #47,016
  • Jul 13, 2014 7:48pm Jul 13, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Hi, 'bin playin so not on the forum 'til now. Last mega-disaster (all over the news, huge tsunami, countless TV programs about what happened and 'look at all the floating cars!') and the Yen went very strong for a while. TEPCO has still not fixed the nuclear plant and have now resorted to freezing the ground to retain the contaminated water while they think up a better plan. There was massive damage to housing and other property. The injury count was not mentioned much, now that I think about it, so hopefully the number of casualties did...

Thanks Exodus!
  • #47,017
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:47pm Jul 13, 2014 11:47pm
I think it might be time to buy U/J... We'll see.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,018
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:49pm Jul 13, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting smash1820
I think it might be time to buy U/J... We'll see.
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #47,019
  • Jul 14, 2014 12:39am Jul 14, 2014 12:39am
Quoting smash1820
I think it might be time to buy U/J... We'll see.
To me looks like a fairly good place to go short from this S/R line with good R:R

H4 Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 27 KB
  • #47,020
  • Jul 14, 2014 1:40am Jul 14, 2014 1:40am
Quoting smash1820
I think it might be time to buy U/J... We'll see.
Sounds and looks about right. Considering that price is already on a strong support zone-
targetwise- 100 pips for buys on the first retracement up
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