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  • #921
  • Jul 11, 2014 7:47am Jul 11, 2014 7:47am
Banked half now at hard BE so locked in half profits now let the rest run until 100lwma slope changes and see what I get. Proper trend trading.
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  • #922
  • Jul 11, 2014 7:55am Jul 11, 2014 7:55am
As my EURAUD trade is now sorted thought I'd have a go at this GBPJPY setup taking half off so now paper breakeven will move to hard BE after retest of entry.
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  • #923
  • Jul 11, 2014 8:27am Jul 11, 2014 8:27am
Both my trades are going very nicely today both are now at BE so can't lose with some profit locked in on EURAUD. I'm going to try something different today and trade the trend until the end.

now my trend to me is the 100LWMA so I'm going to hold these trades until the 100LWMA turns back up eg changes colour to green.
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  • #924
  • Jul 11, 2014 9:51am Jul 11, 2014 9:51am
Clive,

GBPAUD - system trade - banked profit...

GBPAUD - gave back 7.4% chasing - NON SYSTEM TRADE - NOTHING WAS IN LINE!

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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #925
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:49am Jul 11, 2014 11:49am
Quoting pres78
Clive, GBPAUD - system trade - banked profit... GBPAUD - gave back 7.4% chasing - NON SYSTEM TRADE - NOTHING WAS IN LINE! {image}
Ouch!!!! That hurt!!!

But I'm not sure I'm guilty as charged. Have a look at all these entries to me they are identical as 210 CCI did drop back over -100 level each time but was returning up???If you look at the last one that lost the 7.4% without the right hand side eg as I saw it. Its identical to the other 3 just didn't work out.

Only thing I will say is it was at full ATR and after 2/3 good entries enough is enough should of stopped but other than that the set up was the same wasn't it????

Mind you have got some thoughts on it all to share later.
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  • #926
  • Jul 11, 2014 12:37pm Jul 11, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Ouch!!!! That hurt!!! But I'm not sure I'm guilty as charged. Have a look at all these entries to me they are identical as 210 CCI did drop back over -100 level each time but was returning up???If you look at the last one that lost the 7.4% without the right hand side eg as I saw it. Its identical to the other 3 just didn't work out. Only thing I will say is it was at full ATR and after 2/3 good entries enough is enough should of stopped but other than that the set up was the same wasn't it???? Mind you have got some thoughts on it...
It was different. The CCI 210 never returned back below -100 and therefore never went back into trend. In fact I would not have taken any of the entries you took at the time you took them as the trend CCI was not in trend. Are there entries there for me? Yes after the CCI was back in trend. No consideration for the HA for me as I do not use those.

I am surprised to be honest that you would take an entry when the CCI is above -100 since you have been so focused on that being a possible sign of trend change.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #927
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:17pm Jul 11, 2014 3:17pm
Ok Pres78 fair enough so the 210 cci has to be over the 100 level before you take an entry so just to clarify for a sell entry wait for 14cci to go over +100 then as it goes over zero level the 210 cci must also be over -100 level then you hit it?? Ok no probs.

As for this other side cross of 100 levels it is without doubt the first sign of a possible reversal but needs confirmation before playing the reversal trade. This GBPAUD did exactly that shortly afterwards went straight up for 35 pips.

There's one other thing I need to say and I'm not sure if I've said this before or not, but the CCI when it goes over the 100 level is officially overbought and oversold as the designer Mr Lambert designed it to be. He also designed it so price would run 70% of the time between the 100 levels. Now it does denote a strong trend when price runs over the 100 levels, which is great for our continuation trades ,however we should also remember we are in fact buying and selling an overbought or oversold market so only 30% of the time will they complete satisfactory. That being said as we're looking for the London breakout trade it could happen far more often than that with a bit of luck. However it does mean that 70% of the time its going to come back to the "twilight zone" and maybe if its just run one way strongly it will give us a reversal trade setup.

Like pres78 has just reminded me I need to keep an eye on that 100 level as critical it stays above it for a successful continuation trade set up.

I also think its very relevant that if the 15 min CCI goes wildly overbought or sold from a strong move one way or the other then its also highly likely it will give us a very clear reversal setup to trade from that overbought/sold level as traders bank their profits from the previous run. I would say 200 plus is seriously overbought/sold territory when we should consider a possible reversal is on the cards.

I know I keep harping on about it but I do feel they are going to be the more profitable trades as we will be getting in on the very first pullback back with the new trend. Wave 3 of Elliot wave setup and many times will lead to a 100sma break and retest entry that as we know very often just fly!!! The other thing about a reversal trade is you will also have wave 5 to trade so can have one add on trade to boot.

On the subject of add ons I also feel we should limit ourselves to just those two entries wave 3 and 5, then as wave 5 falters close out both trades. I'm sick to death of trying to trade the trends that sometimes setup like the GBPJPY one yesterday but the truth is they are the exceptions, rather than the rule, as generally the high probability trade is just 2 waves maximium so thats what we should go for just the 2 entries then close out soon as trade 2 falters.

Talking of trend trading as opposed to trading with the trend, I've tried for the last 5 years to catch these all elusive trend trades like the GBPJPY one below but apart from a handful I've hardly ever traded one succesfully. More often than not they just fizzle out for one good trade or if you're lucky one and a half trades.

I'm considering just taking a full close just on the momentum run and nothing else but if it sets up again satisfactory then take another entry and repeat as many times as it sets up keeping an eye on ATR. This way if it is just one push I will make a full profit but if it is one of those rare beasts a 100 pip trend with LH after LH I will have a lot of single winners instead of add ons.

That means from now on I'm just bagging what I can out of each entry. Just gonna grab as much as I can out of each momentum run.

right next week is a new week lets see how this one goes.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #928
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:28pm Jul 11, 2014 5:28pm
Its a funny thing but I originally came up with the idea of trading the 1 minute charts at market opens for one reason only , to capture the London and New York breakout trades. I figured that when the money came to the table we should see it in the steepness of the 100lwma, the usual thing whichever pairs100lwma is sloping the most is where the moneys going???

Well I kinda forgot all about that with launching this thread and other 1 minute threads etc but tonight I thought, lets have a look see if we can identify a good time of day to see who is top of my TT indy, which might tell me where most of the money's going???

Well did some quick checking back tonight and lo and behold it looks like its sort of 0800hrs to 0900hrs. Seen some absolutely beautiful 1 minute trends start around that time. not really surprising is it? Just after London opens theres a trend developed??

Well I will look into it a bit more and see how it goes if it looks like there's something in it will do the same for New York and maybe even Tokyo.

Anyone else wants to have a look and let me know their findings and lets see if we agree??

Could be a nice little earner that???
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  • #929
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:48pm Jul 11, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting clivepackham
Its a funny thing but I originally came up with the idea of trading the 1 minute charts at market opens for one reason only , to capture the London and New York breakout trades. I figured that when the money came to the table we should see it in the steepness of the 100lwma, the usual thing whichever pairs100lwma is sloping the most is where the moneys going??? Well I kinda forgot all about that with launching this thread and other 1 minute threads etc but tonight I thought, lets have a look see if we can identify a good time of day to see who is...
i'm not sure how you'll ever be profitable if you don't stop chasing everything that tickles your fancy.

do thorough backtests--not just daily retrofitting your strategy to something that would have produced that day--decide on rules and stick to them.
It's a buy the dip scheme, ya feel me?
  • #930
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:24am Jul 12, 2014 4:24am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Good morning sir, how the devil are you?? Yep good thinking but to be honest I'm fairly happy that the 100lwma is quick enough on the 1 min TT , it switches to and fro between pairs as it is, so not too keen to shorten the 1 min LWMA. As for the 5 min TT side I don't wait for that to set up as that is too slow and almost gaurantees you miss the first trade opportunity. I think the 1 min settings are fine but we need to assess very quickly whether we have a tradable setup once we pull the top trenders charts up, that for me is the issue right...
Hi Clive

Which trade to take should be simple (should be).

As has been pointed out many times, what are your rules? First question for any set up is has cci 210 hit +100 for buys and -100 for sells. Then its ticking off the rest of the rules. Hopefully catching the first trade its highly likely when rules are met, you will have had a move out of the immediate trading range and a retrace and test of the extreme of range to create the a b c and checking for pairs which are the top of the TT indi.

I am not too fussed about TT having a certain figure (have not focused on this) as you are looking for those that are the top at any given point. The break of a range and retrace to test break out level and give an a b c is such a trading basic that if rules comply and seeing top of TT that should be good enough. Well it certainly has been on the month or so I have been watching.

The idea about reducing the 1 min TT ma was merely to try and highlight those first trades quicker/clearer.

Please note all other trading norms apply i.e. such as Asian massive moves on news and likelihood of follow through (or not), LO quick LO moves 50-70 pips are likely to be it on most days until US session, first trade is best (i.e. first trade of session means 1st trade when rules are met - if that's not working rethink your rules but I think we are OK on that score), London close reversal likely when 5 day ATR met, higher TF SR levels.
  • #931
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:32am Jul 12, 2014 4:32am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Ouch!!!! That hurt!!! But I'm not sure I'm guilty as charged. Have a look at all these entries to me they are identical as 210 CCI did drop back over -100 level each time but was returning up???If you look at the last one that lost the 7.4% without the right hand side eg as I saw it. Its identical to the other 3 just didn't work out. Only thing I will say is it was at full ATR and after 2/3 good entries enough is enough should of stopped but other than that the set up was the same wasn't it???? Mind you have got some thoughts on it...
Don't have to over complicate this, do we? First 3 trades of the US session work, the 4th trade (that is rapidly closing in on possible London close reversal period) fails?
  • #932
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:38am Jul 12, 2014 4:38am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Don't have to over complicate this, do we? First 3 trades of the US session work, the 4th trade (that is rapidly closing in on possible London close reversal period) fails?
But much more important than this is the W pivot W M2 at what has been a proven bounce point this week. Easily missed just trading from 1 min charts.
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  • #933
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:41am Jul 12, 2014 4:41am
Quoting nightstocher
{quote} i'm not sure how you'll ever be profitable if you don't stop chasing everything that tickles your fancy. do thorough backtests--not just daily retrofitting your strategy to something that would have produced that day--decide on rules and stick to them.
I'll second that.
  • #934
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:46am Jul 12, 2014 4:46am
Quoting clivepackham
Its a funny thing but I originally came up with the idea of trading the 1 minute charts at market opens for one reason only , to capture the London and New York breakout trades. I figured that when the money came to the table we should see it in the steepness of the 100lwma, the usual thing whichever pairs100lwma is sloping the most is where the moneys going??? Well I kinda forgot all about that with launching this thread and other 1 minute threads etc but tonight I thought, lets have a look see if we can identify a good time of day to see who is...
Don't need to look further. AUD, JPY pairs for the most part move predictably on their high news events. Moves in and around LO and US open are absolute trading basics that 2721 different threads here at FF (go on count them) have identified them as being important.
  • #935
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:49am Jul 12, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} But much more important than this is the W pivot W M2 at what has been a proven bounce point this week. Easily missed just trading from 1 min charts. {image} {image}
AUD pairs really seem to like (and react to) their W pivots and I'd recommend anyone have them on their charts. I use the pivots from first post of the higher low lower high thread.
  • #936
  • Jul 12, 2014 6:55am Jul 12, 2014 6:55am
I do not mean to intrude. I have been lurking a bit. Maybe it would help to have clives CCI Histogram coded so it is gray when between 100 and -100 and red below -100 and green +100. Just a thought. I have been trying the histogram in combination with a couple of other things too. Thx.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #937
  • Jul 12, 2014 8:38am Jul 12, 2014 8:38am
A word on the poem that your father gave you......It was written by a man named Walter D. Wintle in the early 1900's. Your Dad showed great understanding in giving it to you when you ran into hard times. The name of the poem is "Thinking" but it is perhaps better known by it's fist line. Sorry to be off topic a bit.
  • #938
  • Jul 13, 2014 12:14pm Jul 13, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting Jollyroger
A word on the poem that your father gave you......It was written by a man named Walter D. Wintle in the early 1900's. Your Dad showed great understanding in giving it to you when you ran into hard times. The name of the poem is "Thinking" but it is perhaps better known by it's fist line. Sorry to be off topic a bit.
Many thanks for that info. I did actually point it out on post 34 as I sensed many had thought my Dad wrote it and I didn't want to mislead anyone. But as you say he showed great understanding when he gave it to me. Funny it should come up again about Dad as today is his birthday so went to his grave this afternoon with Mum and one of my brothers.

Miss him most days but especially today.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #939
  • Jul 14, 2014 1:45am Jul 14, 2014 1:45am
Looking good but I wander if its too early and I should wait to see who comes out the gate flying after the LO???

Also most of these trades would be running straight into some 15 min overnight levels also another few pips pulling back and the ABCD's would be invalid.

Not in any rush this morning just see how it all pans out a bit. See where the money goes and jump on
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  • #940
  • Jul 14, 2014 1:54am Jul 14, 2014 1:54am
More interested in these trendline breaks of the current top trenders than taking these moves with the trend but just gonna wait to see what happens
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