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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #9,541
  • Jul 11, 2014 8:42am Jul 11, 2014 8:42am
Quoting ewgcorp
{quote} Good morning thanks for you reply. at moment I think order flow is down. because of ABCD. lighting bolt. for how much longer not sure. but I think all the way down. {image}
I agree. at first I was thinking up trend but the sharp move down changed my bias. I also agree that price will continue to push down to 1.70900. Theres some barriers between but this is what I'm expecting.

Good Luck
  • #9,542
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:11am Jul 11, 2014 10:11am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Good morning, GBPUSD At the moment the obvious trend is UP but the recent"whipping" of price this morning has me a little confused. There is a AB=CD which ends at 1.7175 but its still ways away and with the current price will likely become invalid. I'll continue to monitor but for now but I am uncertain whether the Bears or Bulls will take control. {image}
Hi Mack,This is my vision, then get some pips during the early morning, to await the arrival PRZ, to see the reaction of the price there.
regards
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  • #9,543
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:26am Jul 11, 2014 10:26am
Hello Traders,

Don't let the market fool you. Remember order flow and structure analysis. It tells you what your bias should be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,544
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:48am Jul 11, 2014 10:48am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Don't let the market fool you. Remember order flow and structure analysis. It tells you what your bias should be. {image}
Hi Damien,

Could you please alter your background on the charts to white and also change the fibs accordingly ?. Itīs very hard to see your fibs etc on a black chart.

Also could you please post what pair it was that you did your analysis on.

I for one would very much appreciate this as I cant see the important things in your chart.

Thanks in advance.

Hans.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #9,545
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:57am Jul 11, 2014 10:57am
Quoting hansma
{quote} Hi Damien, Could you please alter your background on the charts to white and also change the fibs accordingly ?. Itīs very hard to see your fibs etc on a black chart. Also could you please post what pair it was that you did your analysis on. I for one would very much appreciate this as I cant see the important things in your chart. Thanks in advance. Hans.
The pair is across the top GBPUSD. These are the colors I use and have not received any complaints. Are you sure it's not something on your end? If I click on the image I can see it fine. If it's a real issue I will see what I can do to make it easier to see.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,546
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:03am Jul 11, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} The pair is across the top GBPUSD. These are the colors I use and have not received any complaints. Are you sure it's not something on your end? If I click on the image I can see it fine. If it's a real issue I will see what I can do to make it easier to see.
Hi Damien,

For me it is a real issue - because I have a hard time seeing your fib levels, descriptions etc due to being colour blind on dark coulours.

Sorry for asking is it works for the majority of people here.

Hans
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #9,547
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:34am Jul 11, 2014 11:34am
Quoting hansma
{quote} Hi Damien, For me it is a real issue - because I have a hard time seeing your fib levels, descriptions etc due to being colour blind on dark coulours. Sorry for asking is it works for the majority of people here. Hans
I can understand that post your chart so I can see what colors work for you
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,548
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:44am Jul 11, 2014 11:44am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I can understand that post your chart so I can see what colors work for you
Thanks Damien. You are so kind beyound belief.

Here is a sample of the chart I use.

Hope this helps.

Thanks

Hans
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #9,549
  • Jul 11, 2014 7:13pm Jul 11, 2014 7:13pm
A possible AB=CD on the 5 minute GBPUSD. The only concern I have with my expectation is the super big PRZ (blue box on the bottom). How would you guys/gals fine tune that PRZ? I used the fib expansion and the end of the CD leg for my PRZ. Any inputs on my overall analysis?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #9,550
  • Jul 11, 2014 8:01pm Jul 11, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Hi Mack,This is my vision, then get some pips during the early morning, to await the arrival PRZ, to see the reaction of the price there. regards {image}
The PRZ is reached, now control the price action there.
Beyond figures, important thing is the confluence of ratios.
In turn, the order flow, will give us the chance of success in the operation. In addition to the structure, it facilitates the likely resistance and support.
An example of this is the high of the last candle. He stopped exactly at OPEN LINE and the DPV. They are very important part of the structure, in my opinion.
The abcd, minors, tell us where they could put the fibos, to support potential S and R.
Cheers, and see as follows.
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  • #9,551
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:41pm Jul 11, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Don't let the market fool you. Remember order flow and structure analysis. It tells you what your bias should be. {image}
Hi

I like the simplicity of breaking down price action in regards to supply and demand zones and Fibonacci

Why would you consider the BC leg swing forming LH and not rather break down the swing into smaller HH , HL until reaching the 61.8 , as I can see sometime members use that and thought that its necessity or just go by the whole BC swing as one leg forming in the GBP example a lower high at aggressive C sell

This exact trade reminds me of the video that you have done on the order flow and expectation in regards to structure and fibs some months ago

Wishing everyone relaxing weekend
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #9,552
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:44am Jul 12, 2014 10:44am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} Hi I like the simplicity of breaking down price action in regards to supply and demand zones and Fibonacci Why would you consider the BC leg swing forming LH and not rather break down the swing into smaller HH , HL until reaching the 61.8 , as I can see sometime members use that and thought that its necessity or just go by the whole BC swing as one leg forming in the GBP example a lower high at aggressive C sell This exact trade reminds me of the video that you have done on the order flow and expectation in regards to structure and fibs...
Good morning. Maybe I can help, and please correct me if I'm wrong Mr.Pip, but you kind of have to do both. In my opinion theres 3 types of order flow;

 

  1. short term - less important
  2. medium term - important
  3. and long term - more important


The long term order flow gives you a clearer picture of whats happening and who is ultimately in charge. I try to use medium term order flow to confirm and refine my expectations and thesis of long term order flow. I don't necessarily ignore short term order flow but only use it to pin point entry with the help of Price Action. I also use medium term order flow for shorter term trades that go with the longer term order flow out look.

I can only speak for myself but sometime I get caught up with the med-term order flow set ups and lose sign of the higher probability/ long term order flow set up.

GBPUSD July 11, 2014 Review

in the morning this is what I was thinking

0515 Hrs PST/0800 Hrs EST

"At the moment the obvious trend is UP but the recent"whipping" of price this morning has me a little confused. There is a AB=CD which ends at 1.7175 but its still ways away and with the current price will likely become invalid. I'll continue to monitor but for now but I am uncertain whether the Bears or Bulls will take control."

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/V9wwn.png

It wasn't untill 0515 PST/0815 EST, when price dropped below 1.7020 that I changes my bias. I seen the Aggressive C but thought I could hang on for a AB=CD completion to get a better entry. I was also scared out by the whipping of price and needed a clearer picture of who was in control.

It wasn't till afterward, that I extend my charts and realized the missed opportunity. In the Bigger picture the whipping of price was insignificant. Mr.Pip was correct when he stated that it was a breakdown of price. (Back to Order Flow) I was focusing on the medium term swings to confirm entry. In the second chart (the Bigger picture) it was all one swing with Bears regaining strength. I also under estimated the strength of the structure at the 61.8 level of the main swing.

Perfect trade:

  1. The perfect trade in this situation would of been to short on the retest of the aggressive C. On the 5 min charts price made a small double top on the retest, it was confirmed with the engulfing candle at the end at 0240 PST/ 0540 EST. I dont necessarily use candle patterns but this was an obvious display of dominance.
  2. But since I was asleep the trade I should of taken was when price broke the 1.7120 structure, price pullback to it before continuing. I should of entered on the pullback and rode it down to 1.7100 RN.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/9beIKkFX
For reference, Mr.Pip posted his thought in post #9543

Lessons:

  1. While looking at medium term order flow, don't lose sight of the bigger picture/ long term order flow.
  2. Dont let short term volitility scare you from the longer term expectations.

  • #9,553
  • Edited 3:00am Jul 13, 2014 12:38am | Edited 3:00am
Mack2013

What a nice post, short term order flow and long term order flow, last week I was ready to take a short on EJ H1 but I was hit by the short term order flow and instead of shorting the pair I was waiting for a resumption to the short term order flow to long the pair which never happened

I draw fibs from last bullish order flow and waited a retracement to 61.8 to buy from there, but PA kept sinking, went back to higher time frame to see the big picture and before I knew it, the pair just retraced back to 61.8 fibs retracement from the long term down trend and continued sinking from there

Am gonna saved that and turns it into PDF for further studying

Thanks for the post, and the clear explanation breaking down the importance of order flow
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #9,554
  • Jul 13, 2014 8:09am Jul 13, 2014 8:09am
Opportunity NZDJPY 15 min
Confluece:
AB=CD
127.2/138.2
demand zone
trend line channel bullish
strong support
http://i1243.photobucket.com/albums/...psf87cec9d.jpg
  • #9,555
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:10am Jul 13, 2014 9:10am
Quoting TheScorpS
Mack2013 What a nice post, short term order flow and long term order flow, last week I was ready to take a short on EJ H1 but I was hit by the short term order flow and instead of shorting the pair I was waiting for a resumption to the short term order flow to long the pair which never happened I draw fibs from last bullish order flow and waited a retracement to 61.8 to buy from there, but PA kept sinking, went back to higher time frame to see the big picture and before I knew it, the pair just retraced back to 61.8 fibs retracement from the long...
Dear comrades in trade, Macks and TheScorpS: In 4H, attached my analysis, you can see a ONE TO ONE, and then retreat to 38% and 61%, without reaching to the latter.
By breaking the HL, as are we, bearish order flow.
And to not break the first LH, 61%, sharply lower runs.
In analysis of strength and weakness, we see that a similar magnitude, we expect similar consequences.
In short, receding to 61% of a ONE TO ONE, strong resistance at the LH, order flow downward, with similar strength and weakness. And you in your chart, is divergence, bearish hidden.
It was, most likely, go down to go up.
Of course, all this with the newspaper on Monday.
hug and greetings. waiting for the definition of the World Cup football
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  • #9,556
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:50am Jul 13, 2014 9:50am
Quoting DizzleFX
I was reviewing Mr. Pips Order Flow video and thought that I would try to break down one of my charts to see if I could recognize the order flow. If you have seen the video, my picture below looks very similar to Mr. Pips chart on the video. Slightly different, but the concept is the same. On my chart momentum from leg AB and leg CD is about the same but you can see the decrease in momentum on leg 12 signaling a possible end to the trend and sure enough, it made a NSH. Its almost scary how close this resembles Mr. Pips chart on the video. Now I...
Looks very much the scenario in the order flow video. Could this be considered as an aggressive C buy ? After having seen NSH and NSL.

Or am I off base here or missing something in the learning process ?

Thanks

Hans
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #9,557
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:50am Jul 13, 2014 9:50am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Dear comrades in trade, Macks and TheScorpS: In 4H, attached my analysis, you can see a ONE TO ONE, and then retreat to 38% and 61%, without reaching to the latter. By breaking the HL, as are we, bearish order flow. And to not break the first LH, 61%, sharply lower runs. In analysis of strength and weakness, we see that a similar magnitude, we expect similar consequences. In short, receding to 61% of a ONE TO ONE, strong resistance at the LH, order flow downward, with similar strength and weakness. And you in your chart, is divergence, bearish...
good point.
  • #9,558
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:07am Jul 13, 2014 10:07am
Quoting TheScorpS
Mack2013 What a nice post, short term order flow and long term order flow, last week I was ready to take a short on EJ H1 but I was hit by the short term order flow and instead of shorting the pair I was waiting for a resumption to the short term order flow to long the pair which never happened I draw fibs from last bullish order flow and waited a retracement to 61.8 to buy from there, but PA kept sinking, went back to higher time frame to see the big picture and before I knew it, the pair just retraced back to 61.8 fibs retracement from the long...
Good idea with the PDF.

Since I still consider myself an amateur, one of the habits I got into is to print off charts with trades that I did right but mostly of charts of trades that I played wrong. Matter of fact that could be a title for a book, "When trades go horrible WRONG." LOL Anyway, I print off these charts with a review. I analyze the order flow and price action in it to determine what would have been the best possible entry of trading opportunity. I collect them and put them in a binder then read them latter in the future. I noticed that I as I grow as a trader, I start viewing them differently and see things that I missed before.

I know, hindsight is always 20/20 but it’s helped me with the learning curve and confidence builder. Its time consuming, but helpful.

I also noticed that when I post my trades & expectation, my trades and thought process has been better (in quality). I think better writing thinks out and I don't want to be ridiculed for a weak play.
  • #9,559
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:53am Jul 13, 2014 10:53am
Building a case while still trying to learn the order flow consept. After seing projection and momentum increase I made this chart.

Am I correct in my analysis or totally wrong ?

Appreciate any comments

Thanks

Hans
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #9,560
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:27am Jul 13, 2014 11:27am
Quoting hansma
Building a case while still trying to learn the order flow consept. After seing projection and momentum increase I made this chart. Am I correct in my analysis or totally wrong ? Appreciate any comments Thanks Hans {image}
Hi Hansma,

Mr. Pip does a fantastic job here, so I mostly try to stay out of the way. Also, I understand he wants the thread's focus to be on orderflow and not patterns, so hopefully he will not mind. But I do have a couple charts handy so I will share them. Hopefully, someone may find it helpful.

Of course, I would also take a look at GU and UJ to see what you see.....
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