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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #9,521
  • Edited 10:09am Jul 10, 2014 9:56am | Edited 10:09am
GBPUSD

Thesis: Good morning Traders, This is just on my radar. I'm looking for a 1 to 1 completion at an area of challenge which happens to be 61.8 of the main swing with 161.8 ext of the AB.

Order Flow and Price Action: Price did make a Higher Low on NSL retest then produced a Higher High which would lead me to expect some more Bullish movement. The Bullish swing looks to be gaining momentum while the bears have decreased in strength.

Expectations: Right now, I'm not sure if this will complete because the overall picture is bearish and price seems to be having some trouble getting over 1.7125. But if Price can make it above the 1.7125 level I do expect Price to complete. If the PA looks to be weak then I'll take the trade.

Update : 0(800 Hrs Pacific Time) And just like that Bears show some strength.... Kind of looks like desperation to me tho. I'll have to re-evalute my analysis. To early to call another 1 to 1

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/Qlwwn.png
  • #9,522
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:01am Jul 10, 2014 10:01am
Quoting FineForex
{quote} stops moved to BE {image}
I know I already said it but good call with the EURUSD yesterday. both the small AB=CD and the bigger one. (Even tho you didn't take the small one) Your expectations and calls were very good. I seen the bigger one but thought Price was to bullish. I was blinded by my overall bias and couldn't see the weakness
  • #9,523
  • Jul 10, 2014 11:07am Jul 10, 2014 11:07am
AUD USD H1 long trade

First there's a sharp momentum impluse leg, then pa found support and retraced to 61.8, from there it bounced on aggressive C sell, but failed to make new structure low

So based on the deeper pullback and the correction, order flow is to the upside or as I per my analysis , pls correct me about order flow on this trade
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  • #9,524
  • Jul 10, 2014 11:33am Jul 10, 2014 11:33am
Quoting Mack2013
GBPUSD Thesis: Good morning Traders, This is just on my radar. I'm looking for a 1 to 1 completion at an area of challenge which happens to be 61.8 of the main swing with 161.8 ext of the AB. Order Flow and Price Action: Price did make a Higher Low on NSL retest then produced a Higher High which would lead me to expect some more Bullish movement. The Bullish swing looks to be gaining momentum while the bears have decreased in strength. Expectations: Right now, I'm not sure if this will complete because the overall picture is bearish and price seems...
Going to try this again. LOL

GBPUSD

Thesis: Looking at 2 X 1 to 1's that end at some structure (1.7135) There is alot of ratio confluence in this area. In the short term, I believe the bulls to be in charge after a strong push down by the bears at the begining of the London Session.

Expectations: Again, if price can push above 1.7125, i'll be expecting price to rise to 1.7135. At this area, I'll be looking for some weakness in the Bulls and some Bearish evidence. There is a problem tho, The 1.7125 level is showing some significant resistance , which, most likely, will become Support


http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/clwwn.png
  • #9,525
  • Jul 10, 2014 12:19pm Jul 10, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Going to try this again. LOL GBPUSD Thesis: Looking at 2 X 1 to 1's that end at some structure (1.7135) There is alot of ratio confluence in this area. In the short term, I believe the bulls to be in charge after a strong push down by the bears at the begining of the London Session. Expectations: Again, if price can push above 1.7125, i'll be expecting price to rise to 1.7135. At this area, I'll be looking for some weakness in the Bulls and some Bearish evidence. There is a problem tho, The 1.7125 level is showing some significant resistance...
Possible scenario Mack,
I like to see the price at 1.7135 which I see as the best area of ​​PRZ
http://i1243.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2eaaba96.jpg
  • #9,526
  • Jul 10, 2014 12:32pm Jul 10, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting GiovanniV
{quote} Possible scenario Mack, I like to see the price at 1.7135 which I see as the best area of ​​PRZ {image}
Yeah, I was thinking the same. But 1.7125 is looking like a challenge. Price has retest that level multiple times but has establish Higher Lows everytime. (Rising Wedge). I expect it to eventually fail. But I'm worried that if we are correct, the 1.7125 will act as support for further up movement.

We will see. If we get a good entry, we might be able to scalp + 10 pips
  • #9,527
  • Jul 10, 2014 1:10pm Jul 10, 2014 1:10pm
Hello fellow traders,

Gartley pattern is forming up in EU 4H chart, I have taken the aggressive "C", pattern should get completed in the range 1.3551/1.3535

I'm planning to ride it until 38.2 retracement and then sell it.
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  • #9,528
  • Edited 6:22pm Jul 10, 2014 3:28pm | Edited 6:22pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Yeah, I was thinking the same. But 1.7125 is looking like a challenge. Price has retest that level multiple times but has establish Higher Lows everytime. (Rising Wedge). I expect it to eventually fail. But I'm worried that if we are correct, the 1.7125 will act as support for further up movement. We will see. If we get a good entry, we might be able to scalp + 10 pips
Review: Well, That was a bust. entered at 1.7134 on what i thought was some weakness. Stall in price. I was wrong. Bulls were to strong and there was no participation from the bears at this level. I was to eager to enter. - 7 pips + Comm.

Re-Entry: I did re enter at 1.7141 after rejection on a retest at the 61.8 of the main swing, which I'm looking to ride back down to the 1.7125 level. Honestly I thought I had a good rational for re-entry but after looking at it, I think this was a revenge trade. What do you guys think?

The new Higher High was established, order flow looks to have switched for now (Order Flow = Bullish). The bears look weak with the swing I'm in so I'll be managing it aggressively

Anybody's thoughts are welcomed. Not the best of trades.....

Update: (1415 hrs PST) Stopped out at at 1.7134. +7 pips - Comm.
Update 2: (1620 hrs PST) Guess I played it to close. Target was reached. Damn!

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/Suwwn.png
  • #9,529
  • Edited Jul 11, 2014 4:40am Jul 10, 2014 4:52pm | Edited Jul 11, 2014 4:40am
Quoting puzzlepeak
Hi All looking to get long on the CAD JPY. with an aggressive C i like that the price action has retraced down to a previous supply / demand level at 95.20 Before i enter i want PA to confirm its with order flow and if it takes out 78.6 no trade All feed back welcome{image}
just an update on the CAD JPY my PA skills are improving and still learning , i entered at 95.20 it didnt quite get to BE so didnt move my stop up
and overnight got stopped. i do like these ABCD trades and Mr PIPs ROE thanks Mr Pip
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  • #9,530
  • Jul 10, 2014 6:05pm Jul 10, 2014 6:05pm
Was on auto pilot last night and was filled short at .7948 as my main trading session is the asian time frame anyway the ABCD pattern had a couple of closes above the fib78.6 level overnight
which makes it not strictly by the rules
the stop at .7970 is well protected by the 50 fib on the main swing and is also good support resistance level to the left of the chart
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  • #9,531
  • Edited 3:06am Jul 11, 2014 2:14am | Edited 3:06am
GBPUSD M5,

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Edit :Taken out, rather quickly...
I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #9,532
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:28am Jul 11, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Mack2013
GBPUSD Thesis: Good morning Traders, This is just on my radar. I'm looking for a 1 to 1 completion at an area of challenge which happens to be 61.8 of the main swing with 161.8 ext of the AB. Order Flow and Price Action: Price did make a Higher Low on NSL retest then produced a Higher High which would lead me to expect some more Bullish movement. The Bullish swing looks to be gaining momentum while the bears have decreased in strength. Expectations: Right now, I'm not sure if this will complete because the overall picture is bearish and price seems...

waiting for 261.8 to be tested again for short
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  • #9,533
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:58am Jul 11, 2014 5:58am
Quoting ewgcorp
{quote} waiting for 261.8 to be tested again for short {image}
Looks like 30M some areas need to be tested first before going up, anyone have different analysis?
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  • #9,534
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:05am Jul 11, 2014 6:05am
Hello Mack 2013. Would you tell me to say what the letters ISH, NSL mean in your chart? thank you very much
  • #9,535
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:41am Jul 11, 2014 6:41am
Quoting granainoe
Hello Mack 2013. Would you tell me to say what the letters ISH, NSL mean in your chart? thank you very much
When I start my order flow analysis, I usually choose a swing of some significancy. It most likely the largest swing. then a start from there. ISH = initial Structure High, ISL = Initial Structure Low, then;

HH = Higher High
HL = Higher Low
LL = Lower Low
LH = Lower High
NSL= New Structure Low
NSH = New Strucutre High

when I'm analyzing the swings, once the ISH is passed then I would label it NSH otherwise everything inside is HH or LH and vise versa with ISL.

I usualy find areas of interest after a NSL which is followed by a LH then HL then a HH. It might be a complex pullback but if the HH surpassed the swing point that established the NSL then I'm think order flow change otherwise trend continued. And Vise versa with NSH's

This isn't always the case and you have to guage the strength of the swings but its just something I'm looking for.

Hope this wasn't confusing...
  • #9,536
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:47am Jul 11, 2014 6:47am
For me that is totally clear. Not confusing at all. Thank you very much again for your help
  • #9,537
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:55am Jul 11, 2014 6:55am
Hi all traders,
EU
30min possible AB=CD.
Session the London the price has a NSH fate. the last candle has closed above 78.6 pinbar as confirmed by the time the C.
Support 1.3604
Resistance 1.3624
http://i1243.photobucket.com/albums/...ps21ee3780.jpg


5Min
after break the trend line, I waiting for the price to break the last LH and then wait for the pullback to 1.3610.
The price is in a bullish channel and I expect that it directs its resistance.
for the moment I see a slight weakness of the sellers but still no forta of buyers.
http://i1243.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2019cd03.jpg
http://i1243.photobucket.com/albums/...ps32236f56.jpg
  • #9,538
  • Jul 11, 2014 7:15am Jul 11, 2014 7:15am
Quoting ewgcorp
{quote} Looks like 30M some areas need to be tested first before going up, anyone have different analysis? {image}
Good morning,

GBPUSD

At the moment the obvious trend is UP but the recent"whipping" of price this morning has me a little confused. There is a AB=CD which ends at 1.7175 but its still ways away and with the current price will likely become invalid. I'll continue to monitor but for now but I am uncertain whether the Bears or Bulls will take control.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/V9wwn.png
  • #9,539
  • Jul 11, 2014 7:31am Jul 11, 2014 7:31am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Good morning, GBPUSD At the moment the obvious trend is UP but the recent"whipping" of price this morning has me a little confused. There is a AB=CD which ends at 1.7175 but its still ways away and with the current price will likely become invalid. I'll continue to monitor but for now but I am uncertain whether the Bears or Bulls will take control. {image}
Edited....

GBPUSD

Expectations: Bears looking to take control. There seems to be strong shorting or selling at current price so I'm expecting more downward movement. But with the whipping of price this morning I'll be cautious.

There is another AB=CD Testing the Lows of the week. Right now there is some ratio confluence. 127 of AB leg & 138.6 of CB inverted. I'll be looking for more confluence with a smaller 1 to 1 or ratios while price moves down.

Will update later

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/W9wwn.png
  • #9,540
  • Jul 11, 2014 8:30am Jul 11, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Good morning, GBPUSD At the moment the obvious trend is UP but the recent"whipping" of price this morning has me a little confused. There is a AB=CD which ends at 1.7175 but its still ways away and with the current price will likely become invalid. I'll continue to monitor but for now but I am uncertain whether the Bears or Bulls will take control. {image}
Good morning

thanks for you reply.

at moment I think order flow is down. because of ABCD. lighting bolt. for how much longer not sure. but I think all the way down.
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