USD/TRY

Thanks! Doing pretty good overall this week, I've let go of all fundamental bias and reverted to just trading what i see, these things are gonna drag out forever and i was doing really bad on the its gonna explode doom scenario, although I'm sure at some point it will.

I'm long now on both. ZAR news coming up in 10 minutes, and in a few hours.

Thursday July 10 2014ActualPreviousSurvey http://www.tradingeconomics.com/imag...info_gray2.gifForecast http://www.tradingeconomics.com/imag...info_gray2.gif
11:30 AMZAMining Production YoY MAY-6.5%2.0% (R)http://www.tradingeconomics.com/images/rating/1.png
11:30 AMZAMining Production MoM MAY-3.1%6.3% (R)http://www.tradingeconomics.com/images/rating/1.png
01:00 PMZAhttp://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/char...production-momMAY-3.3%3.5%-0.11%http://www.tradingeconomics.com/images/rating/1.png
01:00 PMZAhttp://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/char...ial-productionMAY-3.7%-1.5%0.59%http://www.tradingeconomics.com/images/rating/1.png
The Zar is not moving just because of technical… It went up on both bad news and then down due to foreign transferts... Difficult to predict

Would like to see this butterfly play out. It's a little too soon to confirm point C, but it is bouncing off of the 4hr 200 EMA. Ideal sell for me would be 2.149 area IF the pattern completes.



For a TRY pair a 20 pip PRZ is pretty damn good!

Israel: Same volume yesterday than Wednesday for bombing and missiles. Reasonably small casualties on Palestinian side
Ukraine: another small city taken back. Casualties in the area liberated 450/500 of which 40 civilians. Government announces that it will take the time before attacking the major cities of Lugansk and Donetsk to spare civilians. Blocus should be completed before week end.EU helping dialogue between Poutine and Ukraine. Let’s hope…!
Turkey: data on deficit of current account. 50 bips down on slightly better than expected but still very bad figures! Last three days continuing of symmetry between ZAR and Tyr except wideness of movements! Still no explantations
TR
Current Account MAY $ -3.43B $ -4.80B $ -4.8B

Sorry, my competence is insufficient to understand the technical point of Shug. If he believes that Tyr may go to 2,149 fine but I do not know why

Just heard an offer was declined by SA mine workers this morning....

I am noticing that between 14H00 GMT and 16H00 GMT the Tyr and the Zar are usually going up because of investments transactions during the early US session and during the end of our night and morning the Tyr and Zar are devaluating… But, so far, for the last days, going nowhere at the end.

Could you guys post your low on USDTRY from an hour ago please?

To Jeffmichaels: did not understand your request?
The week end has brought rather slightly negative news
Ukraine: The fighting continues despite the new offer of a cease fire from Ukraine government. A new column of trucks and military materials has been partially destroyed while crossing Russian border to assist the rebels. The rebels have bombarded Russia territory to attempt to attract Russia in the fighting in support of the rebels! The dialogue pursued by Hollande and Merkel with Poutine, attempt to alleviate this impact. But the risk of a confrontation is still there unfortunately.
Iraq: the political crisis continues with no government because the Sunnites refused to negotiate a compromise to form a majority while the rebels continue to progress despite the new forces brought by the government
Israel: The civilian casualties increase in Gaza while the Hamas continue to send rockets on Tel Avis-v and Jerusalem. It is still possible that the Israeli forces will invade Gaza. A first ground incursion was made Saturday night.
This morning a new decrease of the Dollar index with weakening g of Tyr and Zar after a nigh upsurge Still difficult to determine where they will go
European and Turkish stock markets are up this morning. Portuguese crisi appears fully resolved

Ukraine, Today we have a plane full of troops destroyed by what appears Russian missiles fired from Russia. May be a revenge for the bombing of Russian that Russia wants to attribute to Ukraine rather than to Rebels. Thus situations still very fragile with Poutine attitude unclear (say the least) in what he will really do.
Israel: One of the key issue is the amount of missiles that Hamas owns They have fired so far over a thousand missiles against Israel in three weeks which is a sold figure for a country that must import through illegal tunnels in Sinai. Furthermore, they have also shown to int. TV a drone ready to be put to work! Where does it come from? Thus, despite the visit of Kerry a ground attack to destroy all the illegal tunnels at the Egypt borders appears unavoidable also because Hamas does not want to accept any cease fire.
Today, Turkey Unemployment at 9%, general consensus. An improvement but still way out to generate revaluation of lira! Tomorrow sales figures of SA. And Thursday 11H00 GMT rate decision in Turkey. Turkey stock market on the downside (slightly) US Index stable at 80,25

Ukraine : No news! Awaiting decision of EU regarding sanctions and conditions
Iraq: Very limited signs of political truce between Sunnites and Shiites in Parliament…
Israel; Cease fire missed due essentially to feuding between groups of Hamas and further weakening of Hamas in Arab world! Thus Hamas wants to go on War to create reactions in Arab world. Probable increase in oil price from lows attained on Monday night.
Looking at Lira and Zar, It appears that US funds are more interested lately (last three days) to Zar than to Lira thus possibly that they fear greater devaluation of Lira versus Zar in coming months….? Or a significant change in Internal Rate from Central bank in Turkey?.
Presently, lira seems more stable than ZAR

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date joyfultrader! Still holding on to my TRY longs...swaps hurt though

Added some very big longs with tight stops on this breakout higher. avg is about 2.1335, SL at 2.1260.


lets see if this is the move....considering USeconomy vs turkey rate cuts and regional instability

sitting on massive gains already.... considering the circumstances ill keep the celebration out of it.

but there really is a perfect storm brewing for USDTRY at this point

Ukraine: the situation is really delicate. AS President Obama stated there is no doubt that the Malaysian plane was shot down by the pro-Russian rebels

1. Since Late June, Nato has photo evidence that pro-Russian received medium distance Bouk missiles (1960 USSR) with their radar stations and more than one.
2. Also medium level Russian officials communicate internally on internet to confirm that Pro Russian were now protected against air strike from Ukraine forces (effectively they shot down two military airplanes lately).
3. Internally, the population of Russia is totally misinformed on Ukrainian situation. “The Russian speaking population of Ukraine is attacked and martyrized by extremists and fascists of Kiev, denying their fundamental rights including their right to speak Russian". In fact, the reality is that the pro-Russian are bunch of Mafiosi who took power on the basis of the nationalistic feeling of the population but today the population is far from happy of their leadership. Furthermore there are an unknown number of Russian federation “volunteers” helping the military forces of the rebels…!
4. At the moment of the crash, Nato intercepted and recorded radio conversations between military of rebel forces stating that they were preparing and then firing a missile against an identified Ukraine plane. They also have a recording of the Awacs plane visualizing the missile firing. Two minutes later the rebels posted on their internet site that they had shot down an Ukrainian plane but it was eliminated from the site ten minutes later when they realized that they had shot down a foreign civilian aircraft. Furthermore pictures were taken in daylight on the 17 of a Bouk missiles set up trucked towards the USSR border…!
5. The rebels found the black boxes of the aircraft, then denied it, then recognized it officially but want to use the boxes as negotiating tools in their discussion with Ukraine!
6. Today the problem remains who ordered the firing. A stupidity of incompetent and unprofessional people or a deliberate firing to create serious political problems.

President Obama clearly left doors opened because the evidence he has in hand does not allow Pouitine to escape responsibility but the objective is first to try to bring back Poutine at the negotiation table to allow not only an international investigation but also a negotiated peace process in Ukraine, impossible without Russia. Yesterday John Kerry was even harsher in his statement taking into consideration the negative reactions of all international community against Russia. . Pouting has to balance between loosing seriously face internally with its people or find himself and Russia completely isolated on international scene because now Latin America and south east Asia will consider him as a criminal… This morning, Poutine , facing the tough reactions in South East Asia, said he will do everything to warrant an international investigation and provide the black boxes, while saying also that he wants a negotiated political settlement for Ukraine! EU could not decide where the probability lies! Merkel has helped also Obama to try to convince Poutine but yet nobody knows what he will really do
Gaza: the civilian toll goes up dramatically 470 dead (half in the last three days) and 3500 wounded Palestinian while 12 dead for Tsahal and this does reinforce tension in the Arab world
Iraq and Syria The Baghdadi forces are progressing on Syrian front and Iraq front thus situation more and more delicate with growing control by Bagdadhi forces on more oil wells
In the meantime the market so far quickly shrug off the risks and return to business as usual helped with good corporate results
We have seen on Thursday and Friday that in order to have devaluation of the lira and the Zar, we need to see Vix at the level of 15 and beyond… Now we are back to 12 and thus the lira has regained the losses and the zar also. Again a uncomprehensible symetry between the two currencies except in amplitude (5 min chart)

Fighting resumes around Donetsk despite the crash investigation. Ukraine deciding to push for gaining ground in area. Very difficult to provide interpretation of situation. EU will decide new sanctions against USSR this week. Most probably US also. Train with corpses of victims still blocked because rebels continue to negotiate with everything to obtain advantages!

Good morning everyone.

Feeling like an idiot looking at my posts from last week... that was a insane reversal.


This pair is still at the top of my list for buying the Dollar in a risk off situaiton. Watching it closely

this is good stuff man, much appreciated

Ukraine / aircraft Corpses returned to Ukraine authorities this afternoon and Black Boxes remitted to experts of Malaysian under conditions of reading a stupid declaration in favor of republic of Donetsk in front of Russian and international press. They will be brought today in England. Yesterday Ukraine has regained Djenistky, a 75000 inhabitants city at 100km of Donetsk! The citizen explained to international journalists that they wanted to do like Crimea that is to join Russia! It seems now to them that it will not be possible thus staying in Ukraine is the second best solution; the rebels being the worse because they have not done anything except confiscating! Now Putin is asking a full cease fire to help the situation regarding the Investigation. Ukraine has committed Saturday a cease fire zone of 40 KM around the crash zone but Donetsk is out of the crash area. That is why Poutine would like a full cease fire to allow feeding arms to Donetsk now in danger. EU has finally decided to request new light sanctions (personalities) for this week that should be published on Friday in view of Poutine declaration and also because any negotiated settlement will require Poutine cooperation. But by the end of next week, if nothing has moved on the diplomatic front, new tougher sanctions will be decided by the heads of state! So Far Obama is not really happy with EU stance.
Gaza: 600 civilians killed and over 4000 wounded in ten days… Ban Kimoon has not been able to achieve much because the Israelis can say truthfully that Hamas so far is refusing any cease fire and has launched thousands of rockets before any Israeli reaction. But it does not justify such carnage of Children (70% of dead or wounded) John Kerry, scandalized by the civilian toll, has so far not been able to do better.
Market is continuing to shrug off geopolitical risks but the lower than expected US inflation (thus no rate hike soon) has created a new outflow of funds in favor of Turkey putting the Lira at 2,1050 and in favor of SA putting Zar at 10,57 yesterday! Crazy when one looks at the fundamental but the market is always right. This morning 2,0950 and 10,53!! The Turkish stock market has gone up 3% in two days! AT ten, the inflation rate in SA amounts 6,6% for the year an d 0,3% for the month! Thus not to encourage Reevaluation but market always right… ZAR from 10,54 to 10,52 on the news!

Are yall seeing this movement? Lolol