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  • #909,481
  • Jul 9, 2014 8:45pm Jul 9, 2014 8:45pm
13000+ traders online 9.45 EST..... whats cooking!
  • #909,482
  • Jul 9, 2014 8:50pm Jul 9, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Big players don't sit in front of the screen and enter randomly...they have pending orders at certain numbers. And they have the power to push the price towards them. Thats what he means with bears allow...bulls allow. If you want to short 1 million lots, will you do it from the bottom or rather drive the price 100 pips up first?
hey, you clearly understand market better, even if you are new member here on FF.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,483
  • Jul 9, 2014 8:56pm Jul 9, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} hey, you clearly understand market better, even if you are new member here on FF.
I am a new member, because I was simply too lazy to register and post, but I have been coming here for years. And btw, I have been following your posts and analysis and always enjoyed it.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #909,484
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:03pm Jul 9, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting milam
{quote} In my view this is complete nonsense, "its normal for bears to allow 373x retrace before going lower"....... Market is created by orders.......and they are filled when instructed.........they do not pause or reverse at a certain level just because gator or somebody else would like to think that is the case.....
ditto
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,485
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:07pm Jul 9, 2014 9:07pm
The market is just weird and random and I think we can close all discussion threads as we anyway canīt figure out where it goes Letīs stop wasting bandwidth
  • #909,486
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:14pm Jul 9, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi Gatorinla, I like your analysis. I'm just curious as to how you came up with these levels: "its normal for bears to allow 373x retrace before going lower" "bulls have a legitimate reason to go to 4146, its just most times, it will go to 3102 before" Is this purely based on experience or market profile or looking at S/R lines? Looking at the D1 chart, I see a similar scenario to now back in Summer of 1995. Just trying to understand By the way, I'm not implying to anyone that something like what happened in Summer of 1995 will happen...
its as simple as this, if you think we will go down. wait for a retrace at a place where it tends to retrace. so wait for a higher bounce to that place. if your wrong, the bounce helped you loss to be smaller. if you are right, then selling at a higher price means more profit. the point is you wait for the setup that happens most times on most time frames. the trick is to see the possible set ups. Fridays norms and todays norms were posted before the moves. its not a crystal ball doing this, its just normal p.a. normal does not mean 100% accuracy. but if one has a system the are making money with. using the retrace principle in tandem with their system will allow better, less draw down entries. in simple terms, a way to make more money by risking less, and more profit potential.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,487
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:16pm Jul 9, 2014 9:16pm
It is not the fault of gatorinla if you don't under stand the language of trading. he is one of his kind grate person having in-depth knowledge.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #909,488
  • Edited 9:52pm Jul 9, 2014 9:27pm | Edited 9:52pm
Quoting Eaze
I see people are happy about grabbing 10-20 even 30 pips im guessing their volumes are high? Sadly I can't get a high volume at the moment not enough margin so I shoot for 100-250 pips and do alright. Im guessing the higher volume the less pips you can take and yield a higher profit anyway hope to get there one day!
With narrow ranges these days better strategy is: 10 pips x 10 profitable trades = 100 pips, no need for high margin / overleveraging
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #909,489
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:29pm Jul 9, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting moneymove
{quote} With the narrow ranges these days better strategy is: 10 pips x 10 profitable trades = 100 pips, No need for high margin.
agree. no need to increase leverage. Just trade more frequently.

If one increases leverage, a sudden spike and slippage will create a lot of pain.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,490
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:34pm Jul 9, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its as simple as this, if you think we will go down. wait for a retrace at a place where it tends to retrace. so wait for a higher bounce to that place. if your wrong, the bounce helped you loss to be smaller. if you are right, then selling at a higher price means more profit. the point is you wait for the setup that happens most times on most time frames. the trick is to see the possible set ups. Fridays norms and todays norms were posted before the moves. its not a crystal ball doing this, its just normal p.a. normal does not mean 100%...
Yea, I get what you are saying. And thank you for your reply. I'm guessing these levels mostly apply to the swing traders looking to catch at least 100+ pips in a single trade.

It's just that with my research I have found past patterns can be matched to about 80+% accuracy but even then the next market move is very unique since its based on unique conditions. Even the matched patterns don't have the same outcome. Which means even in the past, each outcome was unique. I'm able to take the highest probability though, but even that's not for certain.. haha
But when you say "bulls have a legitimate reason to go to 4146", I'm just like.. how can anyone say such a level with such confidence. I'm not criticizing your capacity to analyze and predict future movement. I know you are a much respected trader here on FF. Just trying to understand how one could form such an outlook. If you have the time, could you please tell me if you have a thread where you talk about this or could you perhaps make one so I could learn the way of reasoning out certain price levels are higher probable than another. I'm sure that would help a lot of us

Thanks again!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #909,491
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:44pm Jul 9, 2014 9:44pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi Gatorinla, I like your analysis. I'm just curious as to how you came up with these levels: "its normal for bears to allow 373x retrace before going lower" "bulls have a legitimate reason to go to 4146, its just most times, it will go to 3102 before" Is this purely based on experience or market profile or looking at S/R lines? Looking at the D1 chart, I see a similar scenario to now back in Summer of 1995. Just trying to understand By the way, I'm not implying to anyone that something like what happened in Summer of 1995 will happen...
Summer of 1995 ? Didn't the Euro come into trading only in 1999 ?
Enter Signature
  • #909,492
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:46pm Jul 9, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yea, I get what you are saying. And thank you for your reply. I'm guessing these levels mostly apply to the swing traders looking to catch at least 100+ pips in a single trade. It's just that with my research I have found past patterns can be matched to about 80+% accuracy but even then the next market move is very unique since its based on unique conditions. Even the matched patterns don't have the same outcome. Which means even in the past, each outcome was unique. I'm able to take the highest probability though, but even that's not for...
And in addition. I do agree with gatorinla.

Based on past patterns. The overall direction for EU is up. Going up higher is more probable than down at the moment. So going to 373 will most probably happen

Here is the heat map saying what the outcome should be based on historical patterns that matched the current pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screen1.png Size: 48 KB
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #909,493
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:51pm Jul 9, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yea, I get what you are saying. And thank you for your reply. I'm guessing these levels mostly apply to the swing traders looking to catch at least 100+ pips in a single trade. It's just that with my research I have found past patterns can be matched to about 80+% accuracy but even then the next market move is very unique since its based on unique conditions. Even the matched patterns don't have the same outcome. Which means even in the past, each outcome was unique. I'm able to take the highest probability though, but even that's not for...
Exactly. Why 1.4146? Is it because it was a high somewhere in the past and since it went close to it then he assumes that 'the bulls' (whoever they are) simply target it. I think there is a disconnect of what you are trading and what the markets are telling you. I believe for gator this are just numbers with no meaning. Euro at 1.41 or euro at 1.31 is such a diferent outlook for europe with very diferent implications.
  • #909,494
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:53pm Jul 9, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting san99
{quote} Summer of 1995 ? Didn't the Euro come into trading only in 1999 ?
Sorry, summer of 1996

There is data on EURUSD going back to 1971 through my broker... honestly I have no idea how they have data from back then.. haha Might be just an aggregate of the individual currencies that are in EUR currently from prior.. you know, like the Deutsche Mark, Franc etc. That's just my guess..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #909,495
  • Jul 9, 2014 9:59pm Jul 9, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yea, I get what you are saying. And thank you for your reply. I'm guessing these levels mostly apply to the swing traders looking to catch at least 100+ pips in a single trade. It's just that with my research I have found past patterns can be matched to about 80+% accuracy but even then the next market move is very unique since its based on unique conditions. Even the matched patterns don't have the same outcome. Which means even in the past, each outcome was unique. I'm able to take the highest probability though, but even that's not for...
tech wise 4146 is valid. one has to understand i am using past tech setups to produce the 4146 target. these past numbers were built on fundis before draggi and fed have given the recent reasons for a possible switch. we broke a support when we broke the low leading to 1876. in this case the retrace after the b/o has already happened. on a much larger scale then 4146...along with the dragi/fed and 3102 having a pull. going to 4146 is less likely. its valid, just less likely then before the dragi/fed sentiment change. if i had a preference i would rather short after 3734, trading does not always give that luxury. so i want to see if we make a LL or a high greater then last weeks. we are either going to 373x or making a LL. if its a LL, i will be looking to sell the bounce.. the place to go long was to look in the 3589 area for a signal.. as is the place to look to short if one is bearish is 363 or higher in the st w/o a hh..(last weeks high)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,496
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:04pm Jul 9, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Sorry, summer of 1996 There is data on EURUSD going back to 1971 through my broker... honestly I have no idea how they have data from back then.. haha Might be just an aggregate of the individual currencies that are in EUR currently from prior.. you know, like the Deutsche Mark, Franc etc. That's just my guess..
The ECU (European Currency Unit) was conceived on 13 March 1979 as an internal accounting unit.
The EURO became the successor to the European Currency Unit (ECU) 1 January 1999
  • #909,497
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:23pm Jul 9, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tech wise 4146 is valid. one has to understand i am using past tech setups to produce the 4146 target. these past numbers were built on fundis before draggi and fed have given the recent reasons for a possible switch. we broke a support when we broke the low leading to 1876. in this case the retrace after the b/o has already happened. on a much larger scale then 4146...along with the dragi/fed and 3102 having a pull. going to 4146 is less likely. its valid, just less likely then before the dragi/fed sentiment change. if i had a preference...
Got it, thanks!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #909,498
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:23pm Jul 9, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting Piters
{quote} The ECU (European Currency Unit) was conceived on 13 March 1979 as an internal accounting unit. The EURO became the successor to the European Currency Unit (ECU) 1 January 1999
Good to know. Thank you!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #909,499
  • Edited 11:38pm Jul 9, 2014 11:28pm | Edited 11:38pm
The more time this takes the more convinced I am that the euro will go down. We saw a lot of voiality in many currency pairs yesterday.The reason for this was expectations of signs og quicker rate hike than market expected in the summary. This did not happend in the june meeting. No worries abouth inflation l in the US accordint to the summary. So mabe it will continie to october to the end of the QE. The market is still pleased with low rate expectaions and rally we go despite good US figures which woud raise the USD.

But there are worries in the Europe figures and this also should demand a lower euro. Figures from Germany shows weakness. The ECB still wants to lower the euro and the euro must be lower for the eurozone to solve its problems.

If the euro doesnt go down at this level I think will comtinie to go up and down whithin a range before it goes down. Meanwhile it is the 20 pips.

The euro looked BEAR yday and now today it loooks bullish but this changes every day. Saying it is higher lows is in my opinion only n the week range.

Will see what this day brings-

Predicting it may go to 1.41 it is the same as predicting it may go to 1,25 again.

After two weeks away on holiday it is just the same level the same arguments as two weeks ago. Nothing has happend.
  • #909,500
  • Jul 9, 2014 11:34pm Jul 9, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
The more time this takes the more convinced I am that the euro will go down. We saw a lot of voiality in many currency pairs yesterday.The reason for this was expectations of signs og quicker rate hike than market expected in the summary. This did not happend in the june mmeting. No worries abouth inflation l in the US accordint to the summary. So mabe it will continie to october to the end of the QE. The market is still pleased with low rate expectaions and rally we go despite good US figures which woud raise the USD. But there are worries in the...
I just need 20 pips down
but it's stuck! At least 5-10 pips range
but more like 2-3
EA kinda hard to play it
the way it move up n down
Don't know when to catch it or throw it
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