EURUSD

Quoting Aws1962

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TL;DR if you're serious, ignoring interest rates is possibly the most dangerous thing possible... look at these charts and tell me rates dont matter? in each case purple = interest rate, yellow = currency. in each case, yes. there are times when its not the most important factor, but in the long run. it always is. {image} {image} {image}

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Quoting Aws1962

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Furthermore, I don't think the fed will avoid it at any cost. Raising rates is not a bad thing at all... its a good sign and the Fed will want to as soon as its sensible (probably Q2 '15)

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Quoting meleeam

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{quote} You can argue that the chart I posted has poor scale but isn't exactly that non-deterministic nature of i.e. diferentials that makes it almost useless. With a diferent scale you can come up with fair value at 1.15 or 1.20 or 1.25 or 1.30 or 1.36.. its just a matter of what you like most. Anyway I won't ignore it no, just will try to find what could trigger it to become a driver, so far I think raising rates on US would cause a pick-up on that correlation.

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Quoting Vachus

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{quote} First or second rate hike aren't going to be too much tightening ( 25 basis points each), especially with historical average of 3% in a growing economy like the USA. About the timing of the first rate hike, the Q2/15 is your opinion since when?! I'm just trying to understand how you look at it, and what may effect your scenario ... * Strangely, i also think Q2/15 is very suitable - given the way the start of the tapering process came after the debt ceiling fight ... i think they gonna start fighting again on March 2015?!

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Quoting Avir

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I wont trust this call from Bank of America!! Today just before 2 PM London. but it bounced 20 pips just after 30 mins and staying there Squawk Recording : {file}

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Quoting Aws1962

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{quote} They were out with a sell reco y'day, but this was from the Tech desk (curry - he has an awful track record btw) He reiterated his call today, so that might be the recording. Here is the inital piece from BAML {image}

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Quoting Aws1962

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{quote} Q2 is the market implied time. roughly. This is the futures implied Fed funds (base rate) curve. expected to be at 0.5% in 1Y {image}

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Quoting PayTheLimit

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wow 4-0

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Quoting PayTheLimit

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wow 4-0

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