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  • #909,141
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:12pm Jul 8, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i have a 3616.8 print last hour. did your sl get hit?
My stop hit.
Looks like I'll have to reconsider my view.
I'm moderately short with 80% of equity at 1.3613 lol

However I'm getting discouraged about this short...
When I'll be completely put off... I'll go again 100% short.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #909,142
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:23pm Jul 8, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} I only have 50:1 here in the US can't seem to pick the correct trade lately.... Always goes the opposite side.
Earlier you said 500:1. Now you quoted 50:1. Which is the correct one?

I use 50:1 sometimes with very tight SL during off-peak hours. And most importantly I never keep it open for long duration. Basically, quick bucks.

My most favorite is 5:1 and top up when it goes against it. In such situation, my SL = previous week profit. Touch wood, that situation never arise so far.
  • #909,143
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:23pm Jul 8, 2014 12:23pm
have few longs here...SL BE.

i've moved to Gold...since euro is too boring
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fokyou forexfactory
  • #909,144
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:25pm Jul 8, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Earlier you said 500:1. Now you quoted 50:1. Which is the correct one? I use 50:1 sometimes with very tight SL during off-peak hours. And most importantly I never keep it open for long duration. Basically, quick bucks. My most favorite is 5:1 and top up when it goes against it. In such situation, my SL = previous week profit. Touch wood, that situation never arise so far.

Quoting arinforex
lost thousands already this 2 days. sighhh

What the heck are you talking about? EU didn't move at all in last couple of days.


Magicmen,

I was just telling you how anyone can lost thousands ...
without moving much pips at all ...

EU have been ranging from 1.3575 - 1.3617
that's like 40 pips .... $50/pip .. that's 2 grand ...
  • #909,145
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:37pm Jul 8, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} Quoting arinforex lost thousands already this 2 days. sighhh What the heck are you talking about? EU didn't move at all in last couple of days. Magicmen, I was just telling you how anyone can lost thousands ... without moving much pips at all ... EU have been ranging from 1.3575 - 1.3617 that's like 40 pips .... $50/pip .. that's 2 grand ...
I got it. Thanks for sharing. GL
  • #909,146
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:42pm Jul 8, 2014 12:42pm
GBPCHF was uptrend since last week,i am expecting to reach my D 1.5420 where my take profit was.
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  • #909,147
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:42pm Jul 8, 2014 12:42pm
Short at 1.3612 and tp=1.3605

i will add more shorts if it needs
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #909,148
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:45pm Jul 8, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting Vachus
This is what i'm watching, the 20 pips area between $1.35850 / $1.35750 / $1.35650 ... i'm waiting / watching for a buying momentum to kick start around this area, if i'm correct - Monday's low or Friday's low shouldn't be breached again for the rest of July. Below these levels, things will get more difficult then it already is. {image}
I'm still trading that, and i got the entry today - $1.3592 ...

Quoting Vachus
It looks like a nice buy here, i'm giving it a try ...
I'm still having it open, BTW
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,149
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:52pm Jul 8, 2014 12:52pm
GBPCHF was uptrend since last week,i am expecting to reach my D 1.5420 where my take profit was
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  • #909,150
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:52pm Jul 8, 2014 12:52pm
Remember saying 1.3600 would be the braking point for EU two weeks ago after the previous FOMC. And oh look, 24 hours before the next FOMC, we are backed at 1.3610 AGAIN.

Interesting how the FX market works. :nerd:
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #909,151
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:12pm Jul 8, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
Remember saying 1.3600 would be the braking point for EU two weeks ago after the previous FOMC. And oh look, 24 hours before the next FOMC, we are backed at 1.3610 AGAIN. Interesting how the FX market works. :nerd:
You must be the new brains of the thread Einstein...
  • #909,152
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:21pm Jul 8, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting flofri
{quote} Oh sure, for this part I agree. But he closes it at 3607 and then shorts again at 3612...so this is fairly relative discipline. Still stubborn, with 5 pips and 10% difference I really thought a trader must be made a little conscious of this behavior... Is this guessing? Or is this technique, discipline or a system? What on earth would make you go short again after closing a short 5 pips earlier, apart from the *hope* to make up your loss? Is there any new indication in the price that we are to be shorter now than we would have been at...
i never said i was a fan of the trade. quite the opposite, i said i didnt want to be in his shoes. to his benefit, he set a s/l. i applaud the setting of a stop. i didnt agree on the leverage or the placement. but its not my account. to each his own
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,153
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:33pm Jul 8, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} My stop hit. Looks like I'll have to reconsider my view. I'm moderately short with 80% of equity at 1.3613 lol However I'm getting discouraged about this short... When I'll be completely put off... I'll go again 100% short.
using the 200 daily? the bulls wanted to get to 3589/93. they got that. so we either go to 3734/37+ or bears may be setting a counter strike 3637ish 374ish if we dont break last weeks high. month closed a hammer ... and we got a norm at 3734... st bulls have the setup and target to 373x ... its up to the 3102 bears to mount a attack.. st that may be 363/364x.. the trend has been lower, but the 3102 bears most times let us go back to 3734
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,154
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:36pm Jul 8, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} A) the -2.8% is real gdp, so its not -4.8% because the way its calculated is chain weighted. B) I don't want to appear rude in anyway, but that is plain wrong. Those relative GDPs mean nothing with regard to the 1.7x ratio between $ and £ What those charts basically show is the interest rate differential, which yes, is very important. and a major reason as to why the GBP is ~1.7. C) seriously this is not how QE / money "printing" works... I suppose you think QE leads to hyperinflation... it doesn't. I would like to elaborate on...
Hey. Thats 2yr diferentials plotted versus GBP. Yes interest rate diferentials are still working on the pound, but on the EUR they arent working anymore.
I also believe US growth will translate into USD weakness versus the EUR, as it is impossible for the US to grow without Europe to catch up.
Or the other no-growth scenario would be a deflation Japan style scenario, so the currency would appreaciate as well.

About FED hiking rates, its seems clear to me they will avoid that at all costs, meaning that they will use "Macroprudential" measures to fight any signs of heating-up economy. I think thats the new normal.

The main point is that 2yr diferentials are not working anymore, look at this chart from april, its stuck sending sell signals since 2012 like a broken record.. I think it has to do with the experimental policys central banks are using, you can't use that classic interest rate diferential anymore.
To me is reprincing risk out of EA that is what drives euro stronger. I cant see it any other way.
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  • #909,155
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:43pm Jul 8, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting meleeam
{quote} Hey. Thats 2yr diferentials plotted versus GBP. Yes interest rate diferentials are still working on the pound, but on the EUR they arent working anymore. I also believe US growth will translate into USD weakness versus the EUR, as it is impossible for the US to grow without Europe to catch up. Or the other no-growth scenario would be a deflation Japan style scenario, so the currency would appreaciate as well. About FED hiking rates, its seems clear to me they will avoid that at all costs, meaning that they will use "Macroprudential"...
TL;DR Don't trade interest rate diferentials, that is classical FX trading when central banks didn't go into QE or try to interefere with markets until they are pricing what the FED thinks they are should be pricing. Times changed.
  • #909,156
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:44pm Jul 8, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} using the 200 daily? the bulls wanted to get to 3589/93. they got that. so we either go to 3734/37+ or bears may be setting a counter strike 3637ish 374ish if we dont break last weeks high. month closed a hammer ... and we got a norm at 3734... st bulls have the setup and target to 373x ... its up to the 3102 bears to mount a attack.. st that may be 363/364x.. the trend has been lower, but the 3102 bears most times let us go back to 3734
Hello gatorinla thats some cute analysis. How does that fit into the macro picture world we are living now? Do you have any thoughts on that?
  • #909,157
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:51pm Jul 8, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting math_GB
{quote} You must be the new brains of the thread Einstein...
Everyone could use a lift.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #909,158
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:06pm Jul 8, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting meleeam
{quote} Hey. Thats 2yr diferentials plotted versus GBP. Yes interest rate diferentials are still working on the pound, but on the EUR they arent working anymore. I also believe US growth will translate into USD weakness versus the EUR, as it is impossible for the US to grow without Europe to catch up. Or the other no-growth scenario would be a deflation Japan style scenario, so the currency would appreaciate as well. About FED hiking rates, its seems clear to me they will avoid that at all costs, meaning that they will use "Macroprudential" measures...
the 2yr rate spread is not a golden tool... but interest rates are the key for any currency move. its just which interest rate... that chart you post is poorly scaled... and disguises the relationship a lot (my chart is better, and shows that while some disconnect rate spreads are still super key!)

Furthermore, I don't think the fed will avoid it at any cost. Raising rates is not a bad thing at all... its a good sign and the Fed will want to as soon as its sensible (probably Q2 '15) - Especially considering that the UNR is getting close to the NRU and wage pressures are likely to occur, rate hikes will be needed.

I also think that the US is sufficiently disconnected from the EZ to not really be overly affected by it, The UK would be far more concerned, and we havent had any problems whatsoever. So I dont think there is a problem there.
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  • #909,159
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:11pm Jul 8, 2014 2:11pm
TL;DR if you're serious, ignoring interest rates is possibly the most dangerous thing possible...

look at these charts and tell me rates dont matter?

in each case purple = interest rate, yellow = currency.

in each case, yes. there are times when its not the most important factor, but in the long run. it always is.
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  • #909,160
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:12pm Jul 8, 2014 2:12pm
again there is no movement on the eur/usd from the beginning of the week
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