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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #46,901
  • Jul 7, 2014 11:22am Jul 7, 2014 11:22am
Pullback trade on fibo worked perfectly .
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  • #46,902
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:16pm Jul 7, 2014 5:16pm
May have some more down to it; waiting for a stochastics cross on the 1H:

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My TP is about where the 200H MA lies pretty much at a confluence with the Daily Classic S1 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,903
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:25pm Jul 7, 2014 5:25pm
IMO, back to 102.15 area with a run at 102.50 by weeks end

Strong confluential support at 101.80

FIB, 4H 100SMA, 34EMA, TL channel
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,904
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:32pm Jul 7, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting Expo33
IMO, back to 102.15 area with a run at 102.50 by weeks end Strong confluential support at 101.80 FIB, 4H 100SMA, 34EMA, TL channel {image}
Makes me think about flipping to long around 101.8 ... . However, want to see Nikkei's reaction to Wall Street down day (which will affect JPY strength/weakness).

P.S. -- Nice to see someone else using that 34 EMA ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,905
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:39pm Jul 7, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Makes me think about flipping to long around 101.8 ... . However, want to see Nikkei's reaction to Wall Street down day (which will affect JPY strength/weakness). P.S. -- Nice to see someone else using that 34 EMA ... .
H4 has a double top that got completed.I was thinking for a lomg too.
  • #46,906
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:49pm Jul 7, 2014 5:49pm
Leery about going long here ... . Want to see if that middle-channel rising trendline Expo 33's got on their chart is going to hold up ... It's spanking that line right now ... .

Or, in the alternative, how price holds up against that 50 Fib at 101.8-ish. Wicked through it earlier today ... :

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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,907
  • Jul 7, 2014 6:13pm Jul 7, 2014 6:13pm
Looking at that chart, gotta love how the pair respects those Fib lines (mostly).

Got the Slow Stoch signal lines cross on the 1H I wanted to see, but very little in corresponding price movement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,908
  • Jul 7, 2014 6:22pm Jul 7, 2014 6:22pm
I wonder if the news coming in 30 minutes will make a move. At lower balance area. Could move up from here. Not a lot of steam past 101.70 if it even gets there. I can see 101.914 and 102.03 really quick if the news moves it.
  • #46,909
  • Jul 7, 2014 6:25pm Jul 7, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting Trendzalore
I wonder if the news coming in 30 minutes will make a move. At lower balance area. Could move up from here. Not a lot of steam past 101.70 if it even gets there. I can see 101.914 and 102.03 really quick if the news moves it.
Agreed. May want to fasten seat belts for a little bit of turbulence, tho.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,910
  • Jul 7, 2014 6:57pm Jul 7, 2014 6:57pm
Guess I would characterize Yen movement as "muted" post-trade balance figures ... . That is, so far ....
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,911
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:09pm Jul 7, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Guess I would characterize Yen movement as "muted" post-trade balance figures ... . That is, so far ....
Then again, I may have spoken a bit too soon ... . Dipping below 101.8 ...
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,912
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:17pm Jul 7, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Then again, I may have spoken a bit too soon ... . Dipping below 101.8 ...
And ... BOOM! ... hit my TP of 101.713 (which I am frankly amazed by).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,913
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:39pm Jul 7, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting Trendzalore
I wonder if the news coming in 30 minutes will make a move. At lower balance area. Could move up from here. Not a lot of steam past 101.70 if it even gets there. I can see 101.914 and 102.03 really quick if the news moves it.
well 101.70 stopped it. If it breaks then 101.52 is next.
  • #46,914
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:48pm Jul 7, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Makes me think about flipping to long around 101.8 ... . However, want to see Nikkei's reaction to Wall Street down day (which will affect JPY strength/weakness). P.S. -- Nice to see someone else using that 34 EMA ... .
General Yen strength, 10 pip burst down just before 4H candle close, hmmmm, I smell a rat. Away from my charts at the moment, sticking with my long here, still have 10 pips before I get stopped out. Fourth down and inches looking for the big hold.

I think the 34EMA is a more powerful tool in a trending market but I still like to have a look at it even in a choppy market
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,915
  • Jul 7, 2014 8:14pm Jul 7, 2014 8:14pm
Japanese current account much better than expected, Nikkei down .8% and UJ only shuffled down 15 pips tells me the smart money is hesitant to go short here.

Disclaimer: I'm not very smart
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,916
  • Jul 7, 2014 9:58pm Jul 7, 2014 9:58pm
My sentiment is that the pair is in a range (he says, trying to talk himself into not entering a trade here either way, having just gotten out of a short with a small profit on the net position). That means I should buy low and sell high. If I look at it that way, I should probably wait for the pair to move more toward either end of the range before entering a trade. If I look at my Fib-laced chart above, this means I should probably wait to go long around the .382 or even the .236 and short it at either the .618 or the .764 or, in an ideal world, short at the 1, long at the 0.

Looking at the darn thing from a contrarian perspective (i.e., that it might be trending short-term), price is but 7 pips above the 200 on the 1H, below it on the 2H, 3H, 4H, and 8H (i.e., it's largely bearish and appears to be headed toward the low end of the range at this point in time).

From the Fib retracement angle, it is sitting at the .5, which is the most equivocal position a range-bound pair can enjoy. Ugh. (Tears hair out).

So, I'm gonna pass either way for now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,917
  • Jul 7, 2014 9:59pm Jul 7, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting BogiFX
Pullback trade on fibo worked perfectly . {image}
So, basically I'm gonna wait for a set-up like the BogiFx one above or a long from a lower Fib ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #46,918
  • Jul 7, 2014 10:15pm Jul 7, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} So, basically I'm gonna wait for a set-up like the BogiFx one above or a long from a lower Fib ... .
Stay safe .
  • #46,919
  • Jul 7, 2014 10:34pm Jul 7, 2014 10:34pm
i am long on usd/jpy..., 1hr and 4 hr is uptrending although there is pullback yesterday nite...cheers...
  • #46,920
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:06am Jul 8, 2014 2:06am
Long on USD-JPY lets see how many bulls we have
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