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  • #908,901
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:52am Jul 7, 2014 3:52am
expecting yet another bounce for a short scalp here:

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  • #908,902
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:54am Jul 7, 2014 3:54am
EURUSD pair fell during the session on Friday, but unrequired to say since the U.S. we’re celebrating Independence Day, liquidity was extremely low.
EURUSD starting to bounce around the 1.36 level, so it’s possible to get a bounce from here, but at the end of the day, the market are still pretty tight, therefore aren’t necessarily interested in trading the pair the moment.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #908,903
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:55am Jul 7, 2014 3:55am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} morning doom man. range is 20 pips for the day. 3600 is still not breached.expecting close below 3560 or 3540
how do you know the day is not lived yet
  • #908,904
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:56am Jul 7, 2014 3:56am
Quoting Tint
EURUSD remains under pressure after last week’s rejection of the falling 55-day average, currently seen at 1.3684, and the subsequent completion of a small top below 1.3640 keeps us bearish for 1.3576 next, below which can aim at "neckline" support at 1.3513/03, with scope to more important levels at 1.3487/77 – trendline support and the early year low. A break of this level is needed to compete a large “bear wedge” pattern, and now also a further top, warning of further significant weakness to 1.3248 initially. Near-term resistance moves to 1.3603/13,...
who are you quoting this time
  • #908,905
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:57am Jul 7, 2014 3:57am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} how do you know the day is not lived yet
I mean for the day till now. I am certainly not meaning it for rest of the day.
  • #908,906
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:58am Jul 7, 2014 3:58am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I mean for the day till now. I am certainly not meaning it for rest of the day.
  • #908,907
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:00am Jul 7, 2014 4:00am
Quoting Danny Maina
expecting yet another bounce for a short scalp here: {image}
that is right just for today but the wave is down tend we should just be careful on the long position
  • #908,908
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:03am Jul 7, 2014 4:03am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} who are you quoting this time
Looks like someone will hit the commercial corner as well ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #908,909
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:11am Jul 7, 2014 4:11am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} so we got the level which is a 61.8% retrace level hence the bounce from there, looking to re-enter shorts anytime now....
short @ 3597
  • #908,910
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:14am Jul 7, 2014 4:14am
S EU since 1.3691. Holding tight. Not much FX trading for me lately since we opened our own fund, we use FX mostly for hedging these days, but I like this one, a no-brainer really. Couldn´t just let it pass.

I hope you are all doing fine and noobs and muppets behave. Good to see PTL, Gator and MaxDoom still hanging around. Have fun, chaps!

FXM
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #908,911
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:17am Jul 7, 2014 4:17am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} short @ 3597
Good luck, but way too low ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,912
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:18am Jul 7, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Vachus
I'm thinking these days to prepare for a Long /GBPAUD, no idea really what price level ... but i will wait for Aussie to reach 0.94/0.945 and maybe re-consider it seriously ! ( First time to try it really, but i'm short biased on the Australian Dollar and i think it might reach 0.97 over the coming weeks )
Same here looking for AU short, it looks very weak at momemnt but its not safe to short here as DD can be significant, 95 does seem much better area hopefully it gets there. Not sure what you mean by 0.97 if its typo, becouse there is little chance (h4 structure, supply in control) we will see that any soon. First 0.92.

But then again AUDCHF goes against what i am saying above, becouse there is weakness looking for retest of bottom demand and then going up on H4, which will rally AU higher.
http://prntscr.com/407eof

Which means maybe better idea for me to stay out of it if there are conflicting views on currency.
  • #908,913
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:19am Jul 7, 2014 4:19am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} short @ 3597
With tight stop 5 pips should be ok.
  • #908,914
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:23am Jul 7, 2014 4:23am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} who are you quoting this time
Credit Suisse, but all major market participants are expressed such opinions.
  • #908,915
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:24am Jul 7, 2014 4:24am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Same here looking for AU short, it looks very weak at momemnt but its not safe to short here as DD can be significant, 95 does seem much better area hopefully it gets there. Not sure what you mean by 0.97 if its typo, becouse there is little chance (h4 structure, supply in control) we will see that any soon. First 0.92. But then again AUDCHF goes against what i am saying above, becouse there is weakness looking for retest of bottom demand and then going up on H4, which will rally AU higher. http://prntscr.com/407eof Which means...
Agreed ...

Initially, i was thinking 0.95 on the Aussie could be an attractive level to sell - but it pulled back on a comment by the central bank governor ( So, i'm waiting for it to rebound, see what its planning to do. There is also lack of catalyst recently on either the US Dollar/ Australian one. Which makes the Australian Dollar biased to the upside, due to the positive swap. I'm still thinking on three pairs : Short Canadian /Australian and Long Pound ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,916
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:39am Jul 7, 2014 4:39am
Quoting Tint
{quote} Credit Suisse, but all major market participants are expressed such opinions.
then you should state who you are quoting otherwise 1) you are likely to be in breech of their copyright 2) people will think you are trying to claim credit for the analysis..... you wouldn't want that now would you

equally if all your posts are simply cut and paste from other sources you are likely to end up marked as a commercial member and will not be able to post here
  • #908,917
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:41am Jul 7, 2014 4:41am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Agreed ... Initially, i was thinking 0.95 on the Aussie could be an attractive level to sell - but it pulled back on a comment by the central bank governor ( So, i'm waiting for it to rebound, see what its planning to do. There is also lack of catalyst recently on either the US Dollar/ Australian one. Which makes the Australian Dollar biased to the upside, due to the positive swap. I'm still thinking on three pairs : Short Canadian /Australian and Long Pound ..
also looking at this from a technical point......from here can go either way, maybe south first...not sure....certainly the small bar shows a possible reversal at that level......that bar can also mean a continuation of the previous trend up trapping a few bears....
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #908,918
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:44am Jul 7, 2014 4:44am
Buy eurusd, initial TP 1.3621
  • #908,919
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:48am Jul 7, 2014 4:48am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Agreed ... Initially, i was thinking 0.95 on the Aussie could be an attractive level to sell - but it pulled back on a comment by the central bank governor ( So, i'm waiting for it to rebound, see what its planning to do. There is also lack of catalyst recently on either the US Dollar/ Australian one. Which makes the Australian Dollar biased to the upside, due to the positive swap. I'm still thinking on three pairs : Short Canadian /Australian and Long Pound ..
Hm as for dollar i rather see short bias, we have quite a lot of weakness signals and probably most important one is current test of daily supply on UCHF that has to react, due to previous broken lows, no matter how strong that pullback was due to news last week:


This is my dollar analysis
http://prntscr.com/407ko1
http://prntscr.com/407laz
http://prntscr.com/407llo
  • #908,920
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:51am Jul 7, 2014 4:51am
Quoting milam
{quote} also looking at this from a technical point......from here can go either way, maybe south first...not sure....certainly the small bar shows a possible reversal at that level......that bar can also mean a continuation of the previous trend up trapping a few bears.... {image}
Well, the Aussie has been in a bearish trend since Mid 2013 and then it started correcting since 0.88 was reached ... In anycase, the bearish trend is really suffering bad timing and unintended consequences:
1- The NZD rate hikes, is lending a supporting hand too all commodity currencies.
2- The U.S. Dollar weakness is not supporting either
3- the Euro sell-off against most of G10 currencies

But all of these together, and trying to short the Aussie you will get:
1- Risk to the upside is greater, because of the carry hunters.
2- Modest gains to the downside, which will be eaten by negative swap

So, i'm still waiting
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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