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Hanover - can you help me with MT4 qs please? 4 replies

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Hanover replies to PMs

  • #141
  • Edited 4:27pm Jun 15, 2014 4:15pm | Edited 4:27pm
Quoting hanover
In summary then, if you have a spare $100k+, are happy averaging 1%–4% return per month, and aren’t fazed by a steep learning curve, then IMO selling covered calls is definitely worthy of consideration.
Below is a graphic from a XLS that I created, showing my performance this month.

Totalling column T shows that I needed $84,513 to buy the stocks. (I currently have a $100k account).
Totalling column R, my P/L so far for the month, by using a covered call strategy, is $1,287.21 (or ~1.52% return for the month)
By way of comparison, had I merely purchased the stocks, totalling column W shows that my profit would have been $426.21 (or ~0.5% return for the month)

Note how much lower the breakeven prices (column P) are than simply buying the stock (column F).

The higher profit and the lower breakeven are the result of the premiums received (column J).

For me, selling covered calls is a viable investment strategy. A relatively safe return of 20%—30% p.a., while spending less than 10 minutes per day at the computer, is better than any other 'conventional' investment that I currently know of. For those who've messaged me, asking why I've switched from forex to stock options, that's my answer.
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  • #142
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:52pm Jul 3, 2014 5:52pm
Hanover, you have mentioned in previous threads that you are effectively retired from investing and presumably trading.

As a guy who is on the opposite end of the spectrum what suggestions would you have.

In your experience is fundamental better than technical? Is it better to move away from forex because it is so complex to easier markets?

Really I'm asking is, what is the path of least resistance to success in your book?
  • #143
  • Edited Jul 5, 2014 12:11am Jul 4, 2014 5:59am | Edited Jul 5, 2014 12:11am
Quoting MCRotter
Hanover, you have mentioned in previous threads that you are effectively retired from investing and presumably trading. As a guy who is on the opposite end of the spectrum what suggestions would you have. In your experience is fundamental better than technical? Is it better to move away from forex because it is so complex to easier markets? Really I'm asking is, what is the path of least resistance to success in your book?
MC,

I've been retired since around 2003. Virtually all of my income comes from investments. I experimented with automated forex systems for around 7-8 years. As I've said many times, I believe automated systems can never trade with the intelligence of an experienced human trader.

Due to problems with MT4 build 600, I've quit coding MQL4. I haven't completely given up on forex; in fact, I'm currently involved in a small team testing a new system. However, my primary focus at the moment is stock options, as described in post #129.

I believe that other markets (primarily stocks, indices, ETFs) are less complex than forex. However, some of the buddies who I communicate with are very successful at forex. As for my own knowledge, I don't think I can add much more to what I said in post #1. If you want to look at FA, check out Jarratt Davis' free videos and commentary. He is the only fundamentalist whose analysis I find easy to understand.

Re TA, I believe it's a case of finding something that's orderflow-oriented, and putting in a lot of time to become expert at it. If you choose supply/demand, then here is a very comprehensive thread by Alfonso. Or if you're looking for something different, you might like to check out Claudia's thread: she is an ex-bank trader who makes her living from trading; her basic system is very simple. I haven't studied Sonic's system, but it's survived the test of time, and he's one of the highest subscribed FF members. I don't believe that there's an easy 'plug-n-play' system; a lot of it comes down to understanding the hows and whys of price movement. Also, the low volatility at the moment makes any kind of trend trading even more difficult; however, under 'normal' market conditions I'd add one thought: that all of the profitable traders I know maintain an average RR > 1.

I also typed some other thoughts here and here. Along with the info in post #1, that's about the best that I can do.

Good luck,
David
  • #144
  • Jul 4, 2014 8:04am Jul 4, 2014 8:04am
Quoting hanover
{quote} MC, I've been retired since around 2003. Virtually all of my income comes from investments. I experimented with automated forex systems for around 7-8 years. As I've said many times, I believe automated systems can never trade with the intelligence of an experienced human trader. Due to problems with MT4 build 600, I've quit coding MQL4. I haven't completely given up on forex; in fact, I'm currently involved in a small team testing a new system. However, my primary focus at the moment is stock options, as described in post #129. I believe...
Thanks Hanover, I appreciate your advice. Seems like I am forever digging!
Thanks again
  • #145
  • Jul 4, 2014 5:54pm Jul 4, 2014 5:54pm
Thanks hanover! A wealth of useful information.
  • #146
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:26pm Jul 4, 2014 6:26pm
Hah!!! Hanover has to start his own thread, just to handle his own PM requests...

Hah, sorry, but I find that hilarious! Because Mr. Hanover is the best and most genius programmer in town ;-)

Also the most friendliest, one-of-a-kind helpful souls alive!

Happy 4th everyone, and especially to you Mr. Hanover!!! You have served this community proud and strong
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #147
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:30pm Jul 4, 2014 6:30pm
Quoting smash1820
Hah!!! Hanover has to start his own thread, just to handle his own PM requests... Hah, sorry, but I find that hilarious! Because Mr. Hanover is the best and most genius programmer in town ;-) Also the most friendliest, one-of-a-kind helpful souls alive! Happy 4th everyone, and especially to you Mr. Hanover!!! You have served this community proud and strong
I only wish you would go back to MT4 coding
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #148
  • Jul 6, 2014 3:25am Jul 6, 2014 3:25am
Quoting smash1820
Hah!!! Hanover has to start his own thread, just to handle his own PM requests... Hah, sorry, but I find that hilarious! Because Mr. Hanover is the best and most genius programmer in town ;-) Also the most friendliest, one-of-a-kind helpful souls alive! Happy 4th everyone, and especially to you Mr. Hanover!!! You have served this community proud and strong
Smash, many thanks for the kind words.

There are still plenty of capable programmers around, and they are much more generous than I ever was: I only tackled requests where I thought the indicator might also be useful to me personally.

Best wishes,
David
  • #149
  • Jul 6, 2014 6:52pm Jul 6, 2014 6:52pm
Hi Hanover,

Reading your replies and now realizing your in depth experience with FOREX. I would like to ask if you ever tried Elliott Wave in Forex and whats was your results?

In the past I have said many many thanks for the work you have done and I am still using some of your code/functions to this day. Shows you how efficient and elegant the codes was written.

Best wishes in your future endeavors and the ones you associated with will be truly blessed.

Look forward to you comments with you Elliott Wave experience.

P.S. We just beat u in cricket ? but hope u will still find time respond. One of our rare moments...
  • #150
  • Edited 6:03am Jul 7, 2014 5:35am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting fxworldwide
Hi Hanover, Reading your replies and now realizing your in depth experience with FOREX. I would like to ask if you ever tried Elliott Wave in Forex and whats was your results? In the past I have said many many thanks for the work you have done and I am still using some of your code/functions to this day. Shows you how efficient and elegant the codes was written. Best wishes in your future endeavors and the ones you associated with will be truly blessed. Look forward to you comments with you Elliott Wave experience. P.S. We just beat u in cricket...
FXWW,

Many thanks for your kind words.

Firstly, I’m a huge fan of West Indies cricket --- Weekes, Sobers, Kanhai, Rowe, Greenidge, Richards, Lara --- among my favorite cricket batting greats.
And Hall, Holding, Marshall, Garner, Ambrose --- arguably the greatest fast bowlers. I had the privilege of meeting Michael Holding when he visited NZ some years ago — he was a computer programmer for Barclays Bank in Jamaica before he got into professional cricket.

Secondly, I’m a programmer, not a pro forex trader. But I have spent some time studying the financial markets since 2001.

About EW. Elliotticians (as they apparently like to call themselves) believe that EW the best road map to view the fractal (wave) like nature of the markets. Whereas skeptics main criticism of EW is that the analysis is highly subjective. I guess the acid test would be to put 10 Elliotticians in different rooms, then ask them to mark the waves on copies of the same price chart, and give their predictions, and then evaluate their uniformity of opinion.

As for me, I did look at EW at one point, and I’m familiar with its basic ideas and rules (5-wave imulse move, 3-wave retracement, etc), but I wouldn’t call myself a serious student. IMO forex is the most complex of all markets — it has the most different types of forces acting upon it, and the largest diversity of participant agendas — hence making it the most difficult to analyze. (I guess many pro forex traders will disagree with this, but you asked for my opinion LOL). EW depends on markets being fractal based — see my views here. I would also guess that complexity works against any wave type analysis.

I believe that, in terms of cause and effect, price is caused by drivers; and all studies, indicators etc are caused by price. Hence EW, even if it is an objective analysis, still remains two steps away from the primary cause.

Like everything else, there's plenty of info to be found on EW on the internet. Anyway, the above is my 2 cents worth.

David
  • #151
  • Edited 7:45pm Jul 11, 2014 6:57pm | Edited 7:45pm
Quoting hanover
Smash, many thanks for the kind words. There are still plenty of capable programmers around, and they are much more generous than I ever was: I only tackled requests where I thought the indicator might also be useful to me personally. Best wishes, David
Still, Mr. Hanover, you are one-of-a-kind. Thank you for your help and wisdom over the years
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #152
  • Jul 13, 2014 3:34am Jul 13, 2014 3:34am
Quoting hanover
{quote}Anyway, the above is my 2 cents worth. David
If I pay is there still a programming request for make it the changed new MT4 of your programmed currency meter. Is this the hourly payment plan as before also for MT4?
  • #153
  • Jul 13, 2014 3:49am Jul 13, 2014 3:49am
Quoting demateo
{quote} If I pay is there still a programming request for make it the changed new MT4 of your programmed currency meter. Is this the hourly payment plan as before also for MT4?
Sorry, but I'm no longer doing any MT4 programming. I explained why in the first section of post #129.
  • #154
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:18am Jul 14, 2014 6:18am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Below is a graphic from a XLS that I created, showing my performance this month. Totalling column T shows that I needed $84,513 to buy the stocks. (I currently have a $100k account). Totalling column R, my P/L so far for the month, by using a covered call strategy, is $1,287.21 (or ~1.52% return for the month) By way of comparison, had I merely purchased the stocks, totalling column W shows that my profit would have been $426.21 (or ~0.5% return for the month) Note how much lower the breakeven prices (column P) are than simply buying the...
Hi Hanover,

I think like all 80 - 90% winning strategies regardless of market, leverage or function of trading are always appealing. From my experience, including option writing what works most of the time rarely works in the long run and your 10% losses may just kill your premium collections over the long run. Maneuvering your way out of a bad write can be a great skill that makes your writing successful.

Good luck with it all.
  • #155
  • Edited 5:22pm Jul 14, 2014 7:08am | Edited 5:22pm
Quoting Markj
{quote} Hi Hanover, I think like all 80 - 90% winning strategies regardless of market, leverage or function of trading are always appealing. From my experience, including option writing what works most of the time rarely works in the long run and your 10% losses may just kill your premium collections over the long run. Maneuvering your way out of a bad write can be a great skill that makes your writing successful. Good luck with it all.
Thanks for posting, and for your good wishes.

Agreed, exit strategies are crucial.

Also the fact that, because covered calls cap gains, they effectively reduce the 'buffer' against losses that would be otherwise exist from simply buying the stock. As with forex, there is no free lunch; any edge ultimately depends on the efficacy of one's analysis — especially in picking the best performing stocks — along with (as you point out) skill and experience at entering and managing positions.

Good luck to you also.

David
  • #156
  • Jul 14, 2014 4:58pm Jul 14, 2014 4:58pm
Attached is a ZIP containing a comma separated (CSV) file of FF calendar news announcements from Jan 1, 2007 thru July 12, 2014, timestamped New York EST (or DST when applicable). The CSV file can be imported to any platform (e.g. Excel) for further analysis.

Columns (from left to right) are: Date, Time, Currency, News description, Impact, Actual, Forecast, Previous, Revised from, Plotted wingdings symbol (ignore), Color value (ignore), Spacing (ignore), FF event ID
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip News events 2007-01-01 thru 2014-07-12 timestamped New York time.zip   614 KB | 326 downloads
  • #157
  • Jul 14, 2014 5:43pm Jul 14, 2014 5:43pm
Thanks a lot Hanover, you are a star!

Is there any way to get these releases directly on the chart as dots?

Thanks a ton.
www.sme-fx.com
  • #158
  • Edited 4:34pm Jul 15, 2014 3:13pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting FractalFreak
Thanks a lot Hanover, you are a star! Is there any way to get these releases directly on the chart as dots? Thanks a ton.
You would need to write an indicator to do it.

Also, this is merely a one-off snapshot. If, going forward, you want continuously updated data, you'd need to write software to download the FF calendar HTML and extract the news announcements, on a periodic basis.
  • #159
  • Jul 16, 2014 3:52am Jul 16, 2014 3:52am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Sorry, but I'm no longer doing any MT4 programming. I explained why in the first section of post #129.
oh now i know this.

-I too have small teams like you do making systems with renko 15 pips boxes
  • #160
  • Jul 16, 2014 5:30am Jul 16, 2014 5:30am
Quoting demateo
{quote} oh now i know this. -I too have small teams like you do making systems with renko 15 pips boxes
Sorry, but you're completely mistaken. I don't have any programming teams working for me, and I've never used renko.
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