USD/TRY

Turkey news in UTC time

That site seems to have UTC mixed up, news out allready, spiking on the disappointing number

61.8fib of 12 Jun lows comes in about 2.12
Until that is broken, or buyers come in...it will just be stop hunt both sides.

On the other hand, USDZAR buyers r emerging. Taken long (hedged with NZD longs for USDindex protection thru US session)

Dear all, We are at D Day fir Ukraine! The discussion will be held in Donetsk between Ukraine government and rebels knowing that the positions are very much wide apart and that, if an agreement is not reached before tomorrow latest the war will be back again but worse than before... Position of Russia still unclear. OSCE (900 observers on site) has confirmed that all violations of cease fire this week were due to rebels which does not help to be optimistic! EU does not give 50% chance to reaching an agreement.

Situation in Iraq worsen every day with causalities among civilians and tightening control in the north by rebels of Baghdadi

Turkish stock market slightly up while European stock markets flat for one hour. Us index reached lowest for over 10 days at 80,15. The market cannot forget the results of the 1st Quarter US GDP plus the mitigated results of yesterday. Some people are writing today that the upturn of the American economy is in question and, here, we do not believe that at all but, as always, the market is always right… It appears that once more Scotty is right we have to be patient until the market start to realize that the US is in rather good shape. Let’s hope that the figures at 1.55 GMT will be really good this time

Ukraine and Europe have signed an agreement on economic association Friday but, concurrently the rebels are still refusing the cease fire (More casualties this week end) and Ukraine has extended it until Monday night 19H00 GMT…! In a two hours phone conversation, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko have discussed with Poutine about the cease fire and the role of USSR. Europe has warned Russia that if the rebels are not going to negotiations, Europe (in agreement with US) will clearly recognize Russia as accomplice and thus reinforce seriously the sanctions, even at a cost for Europe. Today Europe does not give a fifty chances for a cease fire, despite the release of 7 observers from OSCE this week end…

In Iraq, the government has begun military action to regain Tikrit but despite important forces the situation is still unclear in that region. (total estimated refugees over 300.000 people in northern Iraq!). Furthermore Iraq has acquired Shukoi fighter bombardiers from Russia and the first one could be operational in one week, for a total cost of 320 million US Dollars. Russia is isolated on international scene! Thus Iran is a privileged ally for Russia and thus helping Shiites in Iraq is a good play for Poutine. The only positive point today is that the rebels will not be in position to go south and thus affect oil production in Iraq thereby releasing slightly the pressure on oil price (Brent)

The dollar index went to a two weeks low at 80,05 and thus it appears that the turnaround for Tyr may take some time now. ! (Same for ZAR!). Turkish Stock Market opened one percent higher. People are refusing to consider the positive points of the US economy. Anyway bravo to those have said the TYR would go to 2,1220. I just hope that the Tyr will go back to 2,15 before my holidays on July 20.. Your opinion would be appreciated

today i am gonna get rid of this crap... and took my losses

this swap rate is not affordable....

Venceremos

2.1125 is the 50% fib. The market has been sluggish to pick back up but I still expect another bull ran to complete an abcd pattern on the longer TFs. I'm still targeting 2.2. Patience. Hopefully the market is building up stops on everyone who is trying to carry this. Should provide good fuel for our trade. TWT.

Quoting Scotty B"I'm still targeting 2.2. Patience. Hopefully the market is building up stops on everyone who is trying to carry this. Should provide good fuel for our trade."

What timeline are you looking at for the 2.2 target, still mid July?

Yes

The moment it broke 2.12 (61.8fib of earlier long), now expecting 2.1120 (larger 50fib long) to print.
So took short yesterday (hedged with UZAR longs). Working well so far.

Due to two new conference calls yesterday between Poutine, Pooroshenko, Hollande and Merkel, the cease fire has been extended until tonight. The EU start to give 50% chance to initiation of serious peace talks with the rebels but wait and see until tomorrow! Civilian casualties increasing and refugees close to 100.000 with lack of everything… Continued report of banditism acts all over Rebel area

Fighting continue around Tikrit with important means but so far the rebels are holding ground. Proclamation of an independant califat by rebels!!

This morning, another drop in US Dollar index of 2,5% (so a total of 10% in ten days!) and a declining stock market while Tyr is slightly declining and Zar also but regaining ground. If Scotty could give us his feeling for a timing for upside movement this would be nice but it is clear that it will require a upside in dollar index and general strength of us dollar on the market in the foreseeable future. As Kimen pointed out, the symmetry between movements of tyr and zar has been lost since Thursday afternoon, I do not know why but it allows the gamble of Kimen successfully so far...

Sorry if this was noted before, but I found a UTRY financial news feed site today (has other countries too)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar

cheers

maximum downwrd tagret is 2.1027 but i think it will start bull run even before this level as too much daily candles. today will be a bullish candle for this pair after 4 bearish candles

many thanks i realy was looking for it

i agree with u,swap is unaffordable and if one manage to short this pair from appropriate level return can be extremely good.but the problem is its not so easy to short this pair as its in long term uptrend.
to be honest i hate taking any loss,i just dont take it,rather i will manage position with the proper position size and very low leverage.usually leverage is the cause of closing the position due to its big impact on psyche.

Awaiting news from Ukraine! But on Iraq, EU report that Saudi Arabia has put his army on alert and ask support of US because Baghdadi is starting little fights on its border! Jordan is also concerned for same reason! Egypt, at the request of Kerry, is also promising Saudi some help! It appears that the proclamation of the califat has put Baghdadi beyond his capacities! Today his army is evaluated to 20 to 30 thousand men, half in Iraq and half in Syria. Getting Iran and Saudi against him would be foolish!

Today the Turkish market went down 2.5% and the USD/Tyr went up in the last six hours by 120 bips.. The USD/Zar went up from 10,61 to 10,68 and this time the symmetry is back as before. How long will it last? The dollar index is not moving back up and the us stock market appears up while the EU stock markets are flat, after few days of decline. (they are up on after hours, same as yesterday) Again the figures of Us economy were not bad but somewhat insufficient to satisfy the market…

Thanks to GJGJG For the Turkish data site

Just received news tonight that, unfortunately, the rebels refused to accept the cease fire and to negotiate seriously a peace plan! Thus war has resumed and it will be worse than in the recent past. Role of Poutine unclear: may be from total passive to undercover support to rebels It will be delicate days ahead!

In the EU, the key question on all lips is how far Poutine will go with defending rebels in Ukraine! He has to resist to his own desire, to his political environment (many hawks) and to his population who wants annexing East Ukraine…
Today the Tyr has gone over 2,1300 and, after a decline of the stock market in Turkey of 3% yesterday, it opened again today in the red by 0,5%! This morning seems Zar and Tyr are going up again… Let’s hope…

National Union of Metalworkers, biggets union of South Africa (NUMSA) have entered into the second day after waged negotiations failed. NUMSA said that it would revert to a higher wage demand after talks with employers collapsed. The strike will not be resolved quickly, it's not just about wages, there are political motivations as well. Concerns over power supplies increase as the strike disrupted construction at two much needed power stations. Rolling blackouts caused by South Africa's aging power grid has and continues to impact the economy. The rand has weaked also after the nation's Finance Minister said that he expects the SA economy to miss this years growth target of 2.7% as the impacts recently ended five month long platinum miners strike that cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of the year.

Luliloo: Thanks for the news on Zar and SA Economy. Let's hope this time it will go to 10.85. But USD/tyr is again on the decline...! Tonight ZAR is at 10.77... but tyr has not moved at all...

ZAR has made a statement, and 10.85 is imminent.
Taken long USDZAR, short USDTRY.
Adding more at 10.68 (if it gets there)