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  • #908,001
  • Edited 5:01am Jul 1, 2014 4:49am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} Hello sir. Would you please be able to post a side by side chart which proves your theory? A chart would make it much easier to verify don't you think?
Ok CholiPop will submit pictures next time on analisis.

@MaxDoom hehe nice one. Your candles remind me on Ricky Gervais show, the bull candle is Karl Pilkington, and red candle is Ricky, where it ends with: Play the record, you are an idiot

@saver0 Thank you for link, interesting. I am personally ok predicting currency direction simply from PA and analysing all of its pairs or just from CHF index, but i was thinking maybe would be interesting to develop some sort of grid system that could predict targets per CHF -index currency that could be then applied to any pair of that X currency so that targets and bounces and be expected not from only X pair but also from index of that currency aswell to back up theory. Your heatmap is doing something similar but it doesnt have targets in i think. Gona think it trough today.

@vlady from my perspective move on USD is technical move, and especially if you cant find fundamental reasons for it should back it up.
USDCHF double top with pressure on demand which is highly bear setup especially the one that developed there, there was consolidated pressure on USDTRY bottom which is also bearish, there was upside preasure without bears on EURUSD on friday, all along only technical reasons why selloff happen. It was just that this setup has come in place across many pairs and it was enough to bring down dollar, somethimes thats enough .

Those are my two dollar shorts, meanwhile closed 3 shorts yesterday already, target is still at least 40 pips lower:
http://prntscr.com/3y9fv4

Also UCAD shorts:
http://prntscr.com/3y9j5z
  • #908,002
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:01am Jul 1, 2014 5:01am
Starting this week I'll go back to trading the majors.
Slowly retreating from Turkish Lira trades, since there is too much pressure of lowering interest rates in Turkey to support growth.
So far it was a blast and it still is, but it's getting riskier.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #908,003
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:04am Jul 1, 2014 5:04am
EURUSD starting to break free from the interest rate diffential correlation once again after being pushed down from post-ECB conference.
This in other times it would be a short signal, but today it only means that EUR is going to break free even more. A complete failure by Draghi, I hope he learns that to weaken a currency he cant just talk and do fantasy programs.
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  • #908,004
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:05am Jul 1, 2014 5:05am
will it hit 720 by today? I have currently longs at avg 685. planning TP at 720.
  • #908,005
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:06am Jul 1, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Cross 1.374 first and the Euro manage to hold the area, then we could talk about higher targets ... it's still thinking about taking yesterday's high!
Quite right. And that's why I used the "If". I still don't understand why most traders think of short when no evidence is present. I guess that's the reason most of us are losing money- the urge to predict rather wait for the price to show its direction. Sooner or later shorties will be right but I think some of them won't be around to profit from it. Throw away the complicated charts with bearish butterflies, rhinos, elephants or whatever.

Sentiment is still bullish until solid signs- failure to break recent high- correction- another failed attempt to break high- lower low. Then I'll be looking for short. Of course this scenario is too perfect to always take place but something similar still works.

By the way, I am long since 1.356 and intend to hold it until 1.3850- 1.3900 or until my stop loss is hit at good profit. Good luck all.
  • #908,006
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:06am Jul 1, 2014 5:06am
planning to set sl to BE now but am afraid too tight.
  • #908,007
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:06am Jul 1, 2014 5:06am
Quoting KillerWhale
So far it was a blast and it still is, but it's getting riskier.
Indeed, it is - glad u finally got u r head off this trade ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,008
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:07am Jul 1, 2014 5:07am
short 3693 risking 10 pips
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #908,009
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:08am Jul 1, 2014 5:08am
Quoting KillerWhale
Starting this week I'll go back to trading the majors. Slowly retreating from Turkish Lira trades, since there is too much pressure of lowering interest rates in Turkey to support growth. So far it was a blast and it still is, but it's getting riskier.
I still get 5.15 pips in daily interest, but that is down from 5.97 pips per day.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #908,010
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:09am Jul 1, 2014 5:09am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Indeed, it is - glad u finally got u r head off this trade ...
Of course you where right all along, and thanks for warning me.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #908,011
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:10am Jul 1, 2014 5:10am
Quoting Chicago
{quote} Quite right. And that's why I used the "If". I still don't understand why most traders think of short when no evidence is present. I guess that's the reason most of us are losing money- the urge to predict rather wait for the price to show its direction. Sooner or later shorties will be right but I think some of them won't be around to profit from it. Throw away the complicated charts with bearish butterflies, rhinos, elephants or whatever. Sentiment is still bullish until solid signs- failure to break recent high- correction- another failed...
I completely agree...
The retailers thing are medium/ high leverage community, and they target a trade setup possible with max 20 pips SL - so the majority are counters actually
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,012
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:15am Jul 1, 2014 5:15am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Cross 1.374 first and the Euro manage to hold the area, then we could talk about higher targets ... it's still thinking about taking yesterday's high!
hello vachus, do you think will hit 720 by today? or will go down for a new low again
  • #908,013
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:19am Jul 1, 2014 5:19am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Of course you where right all along, and thanks for warning me.
Well, this remains to be revealed - so, i don't think you are wrong / i'm right yet ... but in any case, glad i helped and you took a good sum out of it!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,014
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:22am Jul 1, 2014 5:22am
Quoting littlesmall
{quote} hello vachus, do you think will hit 720 by today? or will go down for a new low again
No idea really ...

It's standing near yesterday's high and price started looking comfortable there ... if it falls, i'm watching 1.36840! So, i'm waiting to see exactly what will happen
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,015
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:28am Jul 1, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} No idea really ... It's standing near yesterday's high and price started looking comfortable there ... if it falls, i'm watching 1.36840! So, i'm waiting to see exactly what will happen
im seeing almost almost similar candle structure in the 15m now and yesterday's price before it broke 1.3664.
if its similar and work out the same, then the next 15m candle will go higher and 1 hour later will shoot up again to 720 and range.
  • #908,016
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:29am Jul 1, 2014 5:29am
Don't you find the dollar weakness in a positive setting (yesterday's news, etc.) quite a sign?
  • #908,017
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:31am Jul 1, 2014 5:31am
Quoting littlesmall
{quote} im seeing almost almost similar candle structure in the 15m now and yesterday's price before it broke 1.3664. if its similar and work out the same, then the next 15m candle will go higher and 1 hour later will shoot up again to 720 and range.
Wait, are talking about 1.372 or 1.3772 ? Because i think you are talking about 1.372 and my reply is around this ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #908,018
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:32am Jul 1, 2014 5:32am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Wait, are talking about 1.372 or 1.3772 ? Because i think you are talking about 1.372 and my reply is around this ..
yes yes 1.372
  • #908,019
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:32am Jul 1, 2014 5:32am
More adds to shorts.... avg now 1.3680.

Put SLs at 1.3703, 1.3727
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #908,020
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:36am Jul 1, 2014 5:36am
Quoting littlesmall
{quote} yes yes 1.372
Ah, okay ...

Still, it is i don't know - the Dollar index broke two levels without looking back ... so, there is a fair chance of a pull back! (Don't bet the farm)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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