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  • #907,901
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:56pm Jun 30, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting pips777
hav a whole bunch of shorts , TP1 @36777 = http://screencast.com/t/NFkObe4JySDt No demo acct.
That looks a lot like my account. I made a mistake and shorted too soon, buy I can take the DD no problem. Will be waiting whenever the Euro decides to go down.

Pity I didn't profit more from the push upwards though.
  • #907,902
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:56pm Jun 30, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting Abdul2012
WAW. that was big move. thanks man
I agree about it being a big move. Look at the spike left on the h4. I can't find the very same formation on the h4 over the last 3 years of trading. At this point what do you expect. Of course it would be a pull back, but the reality is since we have nothing to compare it to (past formations on the h4 which looks relatively similar) we really are taking a stab at the price action which is to come.

Do recall the price which I mentioned about 6 hours ago. Once it closed over that price on the 30m E/U never looked back. Basic engulf rules always applies. We may want to believe that we can predict what shall happen in the upcoming hours,days, but unless engulfs occur, then it is DEATH TO YOUR ACCOUNT to be shorting EU. Before anyone shorts EU please wait for an engulf of the last candle to create a high on the h4. Many of us have the ability of picking tops and bottoms, but one must admit that we fail more times then none.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,903
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:01pm Jun 30, 2014 2:01pm
In target range, ready for setup to catch the bear tomorrow when it completes it's last leg up near 1.3700.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #907,904
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:12pm Jun 30, 2014 2:12pm
The question is really now: Over the coming days, what will happen to Dollar/Yen USDJPY 100.8?! It's approaching again it's daily bottom and if it doesn't hold - the sell off will be like last year 94.00 at best ?!

That is a very interesting question and could prove profitable...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #907,905
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:14pm Jun 30, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} I can't find the very same formation on the h4 over the last 3 years of trading.
That is the reason why EAs seldom work.

It is always different than before.

But a big move for me starts @>100 pips. We had bigger moves like that out of nothing but technical reasons.
  • #907,906
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:22pm Jun 30, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting Vachus
The question is really now: Over the coming days, what will happen to Dollar/Yen USDJPY 100.8?! It's approaching again it's daily bottom and if it doesn't hold - the sell off will be like last year 94.00 at best ?! That is a very interesting question and could prove profitable...
Yes defenetly, simply to put in in place:
USDCHF will go lower, which means dollar will go lower. Dollar as index itself is more part of USDCHF than USDJPY in price action so if USDCHF goes down doesnt matter really that much where UJ goes as it will drag EU on upside. On JPY index there is upside coming which is clearly seen and neither can moves on GJ be faded away easily from today. So the question is how much will AJ EJ and GJ drag UJ on upside, or how big will weight be from USDCHF to counter drag it. Probably UJ will move down, defenetly there is USD weakness everywhere, EURUSD, USDTRY, USDCHF, GBPUSD...but then again its all JPY strenght on almost all JPY pairs GBPJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY so basically its very balanced battle between USD and JPY, which means it could drag along support before it breaks lower?
  • #907,907
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:45pm Jun 30, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes defenetly, simply to put in in place: USDCHF will go lower, which means dollar will go lower.
Hold your horses, right there ...

Dollar/Yen is a major pair, not a cross - correlation doesn't really work ... I agree, in the case of broad weakness - spill over happens, but you can't really take it as an evidence of direction. Take the buying leg on USDCHF and compare it to USDJPY: If you bought the absolute bottom on USDCHF, 8th of May and did the same thing on USDJPY, despite the strong buying leg on the Dollar/CHF, the Dollar/ yen trade will be in a loss ...

So, this pair has a life of it's own
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #907,908
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:03pm Jun 30, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Hold your horses, right there ... Dollar/Yen is a major pair, not a cross - correlation doesn't really work ... I agree, in the case of broad weakness - spill over happens, but you can't really take it as an evidence of direction. Take the buying leg on USDCHF and compare it to USDJPY: If you bought the absolute bottom on USDCHF, 8th of May and did the same thing on USDJPY, despite the strong buying leg on the Dollar/CHF, the Dollar/ yen trade will be in a loss ... So, this pair has a life of it's own
Read more carefully my post, you will notice i said that it also matter the strenght of Yen when it comes to predicting UJ direction in comparision of USDCHF direction. If you know Yen direction and if you know Dollar direction, UJ and USDCHF direction is written in stone, unles both dollar and yen are strong in same direction, then UJ will be a blur.

If dollar is strong and yen is weak, USDCHF goes up, and USDJPY go up. If one of those companions is in equal / similar strenght obviously its much harder to tell UJ direction. But like i said, focous on USDCHF where direction can be told and EURUSD cannot ignore USDCHF drop no matter how many spinups on rollercoster UJ does.
  • #907,909
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:11pm Jun 30, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} get em on the next one bra
  • #907,910
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:18pm Jun 30, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} That is the reason why EAs seldom work. It is always different than before. But a big move for me starts @>100 pips. We had bigger moves like that out of nothing but technical reasons.
Agreed. One thing is certain. We won't drop from here without printing a new high. That new high may come here when all markets are closed. Yet if we accumulate on the m30, you can bet your bottom dollars that during asia she will pop once more (Which is beyond me, as I would rather shake the weak hands out by dropping it first then push it up) because clearly market sentiment is now favoring the bear side as many people are saying "EU is over-bought". So that would be another reason for it to be pushed higher once more.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,911
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:19pm Jun 30, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Read more carefully my post, you will notice i said that it also matter the strenght of Yen when it comes to predicting UJ direction in comparision of USDCHF direction. If you know Yen direction and if you know Dollar direction, UJ and USDCHF direction is written in stone, unles both dollar and yen are strong in same direction, then UJ will be a blur. If dollar is strong and yen is weak, USDCHF goes up, and USDJPY go up. If one of those companions is in equal / similar strenght obviously its much harder to tell UJ direction. But like i said,...
Hello sir. Would you please be able to post a side by side chart which proves your theory? A chart would make it much easier to verify don't you think?
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,912
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:21pm Jun 30, 2014 3:21pm
I am very curious to see what will happen @1.3709.

Unfortunately I will probably sleep then. But before I will squeeze my guitar now
  • #907,913
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:28pm Jun 30, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting CandleStar
I am very curious to see what will happen @1.3709. Unfortunately I will probably sleep then. But before I will squeeze my guitar now
I bet you 20 bitcoins that EU touches 1.3670 before it does 1.3709 Good bet?
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,914
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:29pm Jun 30, 2014 3:29pm
Closed all my EU shorts as loss.
25% of June winnings gone to toilet but I am ok with that.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #907,915
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:34pm Jun 30, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting Davit
Closed all my EU shorts as loss. 25% of June winnings gone to toilet but I am ok with that.
Davit look positive side u still have 75% of winnings with you
My trade and art is to live.
  • #907,916
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:37pm Jun 30, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} I bet you 20 bitcoins that EU touches 1.3670 before it does 1.3709 Good bet?
Are you sure? Seems no drop now and Asia certainly will push Euro upper..
  • #907,917
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:39pm Jun 30, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting mac2233
{quote} Davit look positive side u still have 75% of winnings with you
June has been my worse month.Still up but I have good chunk DD which negates any gain.
DD mostly is on NU and less on GU
I must give time for these pairs to come down to reality.Both extreme overbought
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #907,918
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:39pm Jun 30, 2014 3:39pm
Missed the push up on the EU an caught it halfway, wont miss the retracement that follows. Expectingthe tougher 3650 howerver targeting the safer R1 3663
  • #907,919
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:50pm Jun 30, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes defenetly, simply to put in in place: USDCHF will go lower, which means dollar will go lower. Dollar as index itself is more part of USDCHF than USDJPY in price action so if USDCHF goes down doesnt matter really that much where UJ goes as it will drag EU on upside. On JPY index there is upside coming which is clearly seen and neither can moves on GJ be faded away easily from today. So the question is how much will AJ EJ and GJ drag UJ on upside, or how big will weight be from USDCHF to counter drag it. Probably UJ will move down, defenetly...
This is a site that I often use to find correlated pairs quickly:
http://www.investing.com/forex-tools...ion-calculator
As you can see from that, over the last 500hours (H1 bars 100 bars)
Most closely correlated pairs to EURUSD are:
CHF/JPY0.74
EUR/JPY0.59
EUR/AUD0.52
And the negative correlated ones:
AUD/CHF-0.64
USD/CHF-0.91
USD/DKK-0.99

USD/JPY is very close to zero at USD/JPY-0.09

The closer it is to 0, it means the currencies aren't that correlated. Higher positive number means very correlated and lower negative number means they move in opposite.

I use correlated pairs in my heat map predictions
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #907,920
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:58pm Jun 30, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} This is a site that I often use to find correlated pairs quickly: http://www.investing.com/forex-tools...ion-calculator As you can see from that, over the last 500hours (H1 bars 100 bars) Most closely correlated pairs to EURUSD are: CHF/JPY0.74 EUR/JPY0.59 EUR/AUD0.52 And the negative correlated ones: AUD/CHF-0.64 USD/CHF-0.91 USD/DKK-0.99 USD/JPY is very close to zero at USD/JPY-0.09 The closer it is to 0, it means the currencies aren't that correlated. Higher positive number means very correlated and lower negative number...
thanks for this great site.I like that it covers news as well related to pairs.

Kathy Lien summery is very good.
She is my "teacher" using modified BB system from her.
http://www.investing.com/analysis/to...-dollar-217898
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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