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  • #907,521
  • Jun 28, 2014 7:28am Jun 28, 2014 7:28am
Quoting 45Condor
{image} Monthly moan ending June 2014 I’m liberal-minded – but not, I hasten to add, a fluffy liberal. As such, ...
You are a good writer. Much better than me at least. I agree with your sentiment on the Japanese economy. It will be interesting to see what the future has in store.
"Serenity, you sound like a frustrated Canadian living your life in the US"
  • #907,522
  • Jun 28, 2014 7:48am Jun 28, 2014 7:48am
Good evening all. It is anyones guess as to what will occur. What we do know is EUR/USD was able to make it's way to the last high which created. This creating a triple top on the h1 Above this triple top would be the the last highs created.

1.36689 and the high before that of 1.3677


I would say aiming for those price is a over shoot as nothing would be driving it that high. The highest I can see EU going once the market opens, before ASIA session would be the 1.3658 mr2 and higher then that the 1.3674 R2 which is in the smack middle of the 1.36770 and 1.36689 pivot.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,523
  • Jun 28, 2014 8:25am Jun 28, 2014 8:25am
Quoting CholiPop
Good evening all. It is anyones guess as to what will occur. What we do know is EUR/USD was able to make it's way to the last high which created. This creating a triple top on the h1 Above this triple top would be the the last highs created. 1.36689 and the high before that of 1.3677 I would say aiming for those price is a over shoot as nothing would be driving it that high. The highest I can see EU going once the market opens, before ASIA session would be the 1.3658 mr2 and higher then that the 1.3674 R2 which is in the smack middle of the 1.36770...
One thing I learnt from the past is that on the third trial E/U often gets through R or S.

It does not have to but chances are much better than on the first or second try.
  • #907,524
  • Jun 28, 2014 8:37am Jun 28, 2014 8:37am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} One thing I learnt from the past is that on the third trial E/U often gets through R or S. It does not have to but chances are much better than on the first or second try.
I think this is a general rule which does not solely apply to eur/usd.
  • #907,525
  • Jun 28, 2014 9:40am Jun 28, 2014 9:40am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} One thing I learnt from the past is that on the third trial E/U often gets through R or S. It does not have to but chances are much better than on the first or second try.
One strong indicator I use for starts of a reversals on the short term would be the 30m chart... Have a look at EU on the 30m. For those of you who have sometime to do some back testing you will be able to notice how strong/weak this indicator actually is.

Attached Image


You'll see that we were several mins away from having our very first engulf of the trending Bull candle.


You can also see that within the same chart, the last two times we attempted to engulf the trending bull candle we simply could not engulf it.
Attached Image


Now if we were to add Fibs to the very same chart, in which we connect the last engulfed candle which was trending (100.00 fib level in which the red candle was engulfed by a green candle when the top ma line was red), and the 0.0 fib would be the high of the first bull candle to go against the trade (You take the high of those two candles)
Attached Image


Now that you have your fibs added, you will notice that the bear candle which is still open, kissed right off of the -23.6 fib level.
Here is what will more then likely happen.

1) If the open bear candle closes engulf any bull candle, Then we would of had our very first engulf since the ma lines crossed. Which more SHOULD result in us getting a very small pull back to the 23.6 fib level.

2) If the open bear candle doesn't engulf the bull candle, we will see a pop past the 1.3650 resistance which we bounced off of and we will continue to 1.36653 which is our -76.4 fib level on the same chart. At that point I would consider shorting EU big time, as if there is no current events pushing EU to that fib level it will be met with a big time sell off all the way back to the +23.6 fib level.

So to some it up if this open candle on the m30 engulfs any green candle I would consider the short on EU (I personally will take one) Then if the following 30 min candle engulfs any other green candle, then EU should give us that pull back which I am expecting. (Well a pretty good pullback for those of us who wager to scalp a few pips using rather large lot sizes.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,526
  • Jun 28, 2014 9:42am Jun 28, 2014 9:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sos, still holding short. and if we break out north. i still would not long w/o a pullback like noted... still in the same range with 1 day left till months end. usdx still is sitting on support. its not broke till it breaks.. if/or/when it does, other opportunities most times present themselves at a price better then the b/o level
Certainly agree Gator. Price is currently at its premium. no point going long at these level a pullback is due
  • #907,527
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:35am Jun 28, 2014 10:35am
So we finally had a breakthrough from the 1.3600 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-6-28 7-29-34.png Size: 50 KB

My question is if this a solid bull breakout or caused by Q1 GDP panic?
Continue my analysis here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post7568130
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #907,528
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:36am Jun 28, 2014 10:36am
Quoting SerenityFX
{quote} You are a good writer. Much better than me at least. I agree with your sentiment on the Japanese economy. It will be interesting to see what the future has in store.
Thank you… always nice – and humbling – to hear that someone likes to read my rants.

Should anyone wish to read further rants, I will not miss the opportunity to state:

For Pip's Sake! A little rant written by a member of Forex Factory, for members of Forex Factory, and also beyond. The blurb for the book goes like this:

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For Pip’s Sake! will leave you nodding in agreement at how the currency markets often confuse. Angry at how the political and economic industries leave you last in the queue. Laughing at how the author haplessly tries to become part of the 5 percent club.

Yes, a not without some semblance of shame approach for an audience that will hopefully appreciate the work, and announce its arrival to their family, friends, work colleagues, social media contacts, and so on, and so on, and so on. (I’m not that familiar with marketing, and hope that the FF community could help out a little on this front. This would include some kind reviews on Amazon )

Readable with Kindles, For Pip’s Sake! can also be read on iPads, PCs, Macs, Blackberries, iPhones, Android devices, and goodness knows what else, by using the following application (link).

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Yours sincerely,

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Author of For Pip’s Sake!
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #907,529
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:40am Jun 28, 2014 10:40am
Quoting FXSayWhat
So we finally had a breakthrough from the 1.3600 level. {image} My question is if this a solid bull breakout or caused by Q1 GDP panic? Continue my analysis here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post7568130
Yep and we should go higher.
  • #907,530
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:49am Jun 28, 2014 10:49am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} One strong indicator I use for starts of a reversals on the short term would be the 30m chart...
Interesting ideas, so you got a method or a system. Everybody should have one

I of course have one too which starts at M5 and ends with Monthlies.
My preference goes to M15/M30/H1 at the moment with a sidelook to the H4 candles (how much in a row/direction).
I look for peaks and how much probability is there to go any further into the peak direction sooner or later.
In fact I am looking for the the reversal cause when the peak is done its done.
I also look for fast countertrades, they are always good for 10 pips or more.
  • #907,531
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 28, 2014 11:03am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Update Technical: Weekly chart: Price has dropped from 1.27 extension to complete 38.2 Retracement at 1.3500, we have here bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Daily chart: Here we could get butterfly buy around 1.3475 provided price doesn't take 1.3676 out (neckline of double top + limit retracement for this new butterfly and weekly R1 for next week. I will watch this level very carefully. 4 hours chart: Price completed 61.8 retracement and could well reach 1.618 upwards extension at around the same area as weekly R1 and levels specified....
EURUSD

Pretty much same technical picture that means: As long price doesn't take 1.3676 out which is Weekly R1 for next week (note that this level is 1.618 Extension of ABCD 4 hours chart) we can try to trade it in the opposite direction for a completion of butterfly BUY around 1.3474 area daily chart. (this is explained in last post) If price does take these highs out then something else is coming and will have to re analyse the charts for more clues. Meanwhile on smaller time frame chart 1 hour we can see how this could be achieved. On the 1 hour price reached 1.618, we could have retracement for long entry to accomplish targets specified above.

Fundamental: In my opinion the main question is the mismatch of Fed’s promises and real action on tightening policy. Despite recent nice economic data Fed does not hurry to hint on possible rate hiking, mostly because Yellen is a follower of theory that unemployment creates additional pressure on inflation. I am not going into details but somehow this is already showing on the charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1Hr.png Size: 208 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #907,532
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:03am Jun 28, 2014 11:03am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Interesting ideas, so you got a method or a system. Everybody should have one I of course have one too which starts at M5 and ends with Monthlies. My preference goes to M15/M30/H1 at the moment with a sidelook to the H4 candles (how much in a row/direction). I look for peaks and how much probability is there to go any further into the peak direction sooner or later. In fact I am looking for the the reversal cause when the peak is done its done. I also look for fast countertrades, they are always good for 10 pips or more.

I as well look for countertrades. That is what I would be expecting for EU once the market opens based on what I see on the m30. Yet it all starts with the engulf on that TF. As for the h4, you can see on the h4 the bull candles are very strong. So to engulf it will likely have to be based on PR's. If on the h4, we remain with the ma 10 above ma 34 then we at best will accumulate as we wait for the nfp news on friday. One good thing about the h4 is that if we accumulate, then for sure we will see a nice drop once nfp is released. 1.3670 is the high of the nfp news, so worse case we accumulate there.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,533
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:04am Jun 28, 2014 11:04am
As for dollar on the other side, towards the later part of last week, USDJPY is pushing towards 101.00 its 21-week low mainly duo to the fact US Q1 GDP was so very disappointing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-6-28 8-41-46-2.png Size: 45 KB

Finish the rest analysis on dollar and USDJPY here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post7568144
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #907,534
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:09am Jun 28, 2014 11:09am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep and we should go higher.
GDP was disappointing, but does it look normal given the facts all sector did not show any major hits? No, it does Not look normal. According to the major media, the Q1 GDP was a miss read.

To me it's still unclear if the rally will last or not.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #907,535
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:11am Jun 28, 2014 11:11am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Interesting ideas, so you got a method or a system. Everybody should have one I of course have one too which starts at M5 and ends with Monthlies. My preference goes to M15/M30/H1 at the moment with a sidelook to the H4 candles (how much in a row/direction). I look for peaks and how much probability is there to go any further into the peak direction sooner or later. In fact I am looking for the the reversal cause when the peak is done its done. I also look for fast countertrades, they are always good for 10 pips or more.
Although many of us have different strategies, wouldn't you say that the lower the tf, the more accurate your entry will be?
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,536
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:26am Jun 28, 2014 11:26am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} GDP was disappointing, but does it look normal given the facts all sector did not show any major hits? No, it does Not look normal. According to the major media, the Q1 GDP was a miss read. To me it's still unclear if the rally will last or not.
Agree thats why i am not planing any EU longs, i will only short USDCHF, due to technical reasons once we breach current support few pips lower. I dont care what fundamentals say or how price plans to pullback from them, technicals say short UC to me once we pass support. And if we do pass there is 130 pips down to go, which would equal to big rally in EU, unles EUR gets weakened trough crosspairs. Hard to say yet, only 10 pips needs to be done on downside to confirm that view, and if not it has to be strong dollar rally in monday in order to decline that view.
  • #907,537
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:27am Jun 28, 2014 11:27am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} Although many of us have different strategies, wouldn't you say that the lower the tf, the more accurate your entry will be?
As long as you are trading in the right direction and good at picking bottoms, sure With M1, you can sometimes spot right when the market turns with the help of fibs and CCI for example. There are many ways to do it.. just a matter of excelling at using your tools. The only right way to trade is what works for you.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #907,538
  • Jun 28, 2014 11:49am Jun 28, 2014 11:49am
Quoting saver0
{quote} As long as you are trading in the right direction and good at picking bottoms, sure With M1, you can sometimes spot right when the market turns with the help of fibs and CCI for example. There are many ways to do it.. just a matter of excelling at using your tools. The only right way to trade is what works for you.
Well said sir. I started out on the 1m, but it seems like the market has slowed down big time the last 6 weeks. Most pairs (even EJ) is almost dead on the 1m. Once the breakout occurs it simply goes dead.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,539
  • Jun 28, 2014 12:00pm Jun 28, 2014 12:00pm
One of the strongest trends I've learned about EU is "NEVER goes against the trend on the m30 unless you have an engulf. Although some people are able to pick tops and bottoms, when you miss it, you end up taking a big big pip loss. Simply do the following those of you who have a chance to do so.

1)Load a 30m of EUR/USD
2)Load MA 10 smooth make the color green
3)Load MA 34 smooth make the color red
--------------------------------------------------------

You chart should look like this.... without the fibs of course.
Attached Image


Now hit "HOME" on your keyboard and go back as far as you can on EU.

Simply look for when the green ma line cross over the red ma line. (Meaning once the lines crosses the top ma line is green)

So of course every green candle close is a close with the trend (As now the top line is green)
Notice what happens when a RED candle engulfs the ENTIRE green candle. Don't you typically get 10-20 pips profit BEFORE the RED candle is ENGULFED leading to an extension of the move up?

You can see it happened on Friday

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: engulf.PNG Size: 26 KB


After the trending candle (green candle) was engulfed we ended up dropping 10 pips. Then when the green candle was engulfed we got the move all the way up to 1.3650 resistance.

So try to go back as far as you can, and see how many times when you get that engulf it results in your earning 10-20 pips before the candle which triggered you to sell is engulfed.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #907,540
  • Jun 28, 2014 12:17pm Jun 28, 2014 12:17pm
Cool tip Cholipop for the fast 10 pips guys, I am one of them.

You asked for the smaller TFs:

I use M5 only as a "first hint".

As I have several MT4s open at the same time every new graphic slows down my machine, and M1 graphics are extreme, so I avoid them.

You seem to work with naked charts, I am the exact opposite. Not that I am totally graphic fixed, but they are making my life so much easier.

At best I get all my charts aligned peakwise from M5 to let´s say H1 and here I go.

To wait for H4 and D1 is boring, the signals for max peaks are too seldom. M15 and M30 are pretty cool, H1 is often much too late for indies (althoug not peakwise) and also too seldom.
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