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  • #501
  • Jun 25, 2014 1:42am Jun 25, 2014 1:42am
So now CBRT is going to use twitter for telling us what it is up to (see below). This gets better by the day.

Got it wrong yesterday. Wearing the wrong glasses again and failed to watch PA closely enough. The clues were there, you just had to be listening.

No: 2014 – 41

Release Date: 24 June 2014

CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY PRESS RELEASE

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to use social media accounts for financial education purposes

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will use social media accounts to facilitate financial education. This step is being taken in accordance with the framework set out in the Prime Ministry Circular on “Financial Access, Financial Education and Financial Consumer Protection Strategy and Action Plans” (1) of 5 June 2014.
The Prime Ministry Circular entrusts the CBRT with the authority to serve as the coordinator/responsible institution for:
a) Fostering the Habit of Saving and Encouraging the Use of the Kuruş (Turkish lira coins), and also
b) Financial Education for Media Members.
Accordingly, the CBRT has already opened the following social media accounts:
Twitter: @Merkez_Bankasi (in Turkish) and @CentralBank_TR (in English),
Facebook: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası,
YouTube: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ,
Flickr: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası
The CBRT will be sharing social media content only via the above-mentioned social media accounts. It is strongly advised not to rely on social media messages that appear to be posted on behalf of the CBRT or CBRT authorities, yet are posted on accounts other than those listed above.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #502
  • Jun 25, 2014 2:00am Jun 25, 2014 2:00am
As was pointed earlier ZAR has been appreciating much more after it broker its Trendline.
(see image)
Tooks a short USDZAR long USDTRY last week (relative USD hedge)
and closed ZAR at 10.57 (50fib).
Holding USDTRY long till the uncertainty persists.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #503
  • Jun 25, 2014 2:18am Jun 25, 2014 2:18am
Quoting Scotty B
Alright, as everyone knows we got our rate cut. The Lira didn't immediately move after the first cut we saw either, it took a couple days. The market could very likely shake out the loose hands (cheap liquidity) through tomorrow. Its just a matter of time now before the bull flag on the daily breaks. I believe we are right on track to see our 2.2 target by mid July.
That would make sense - for the Big Dogs. FH closed as a good volumed red hourly doji with a long upside shadow - aka a pin - indecision. I sold the fakeout to the **50 level and now we have plenty retracement levels to watch including several where the fibs align with existing S&R zones....

The 4 hrly up channel could also provide support from its lower line and its upper line hits the 2.2 level on June 27 ......

PS This morning's high was also a clear hit on the falling TL accross the LHs on the 60m and 4 hrly lower highs.....no need to wait for a lagging indicator to turn
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #504
  • Jun 25, 2014 3:50am Jun 25, 2014 3:50am
Dear Scotty
I am really impressed by your intimate knowledge of the try history and technical! My bank is publishing everyday charts for suggestions of trade but only for the majors! As I indicated before, the majors are to tough to trade due to extreme volatility on news, erratic behavior and lately range trading) Yesterday, for once since one year, they published a graph on USD Tyr and they stated that there would be much greater chance of going north in the following days but attention should be paid at the strong resistance at 2,1500/10 and recommended that a full daily candle be watched above the resistance level to then believe that much higher level should be attained They were putting a 50% ratio on that event. Your opinion would be appreciated.

Kimen: As I indicated before, there is an incredible symmetry between the charts of USD/zar and the USDD TRY! I do not know why (in fact I have asked once more opinions of my colleagues here) but it is a fact for the last month or slightly more! Just look at the fluctuations yesterday and tonight and you will see again that even the small variations (of this early morning) are copied from one to the other. This being said, the Zar fluctuations last week up to today are from 10,86 to 10,51 thus 4.2% and for the try from 2,1525 to 2,1250 (1,5%) In fact Monday the Zar did not follow for once the Try and went down much further If today the tyr must go up (which I do not know exactly), shorting the Zar is dangerous. Pay also attention that fluctuations in the Zar cost you much less money that fluctuations in the tyR
  • #505
  • Jun 25, 2014 5:12am Jun 25, 2014 5:12am
2,145 is again on track... Probably we will see higher levels of price today...lets see

Long @2,1378

Venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #506
  • Jun 25, 2014 5:49am Jun 25, 2014 5:49am
Quoting Scotty B
I'm watching 2.1269 for support prior to the rate announcement.
i notice , you are absolutely fantastic on this pair , really extra ordinary
  • #507
  • Jun 25, 2014 8:09am Jun 25, 2014 8:09am
Fasten your seat-belts, its coming up like an eruption.
  • #508
  • Edited 9:07am Jun 25, 2014 8:43am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Islander
{quote} That would make sense - for the Big Dogs. FH closed as a good volumed red hourly doji with a long upside shadow - aka a pin - indecision. I sold the fakeout to the **50 level and now we have plenty retracement levels to watch including several where the fibs align with existing S&R zones.... The 4 hrly up channel could also provide support from its lower line and its upper line hits the 2.2 level on June 27 ...... PS This morning's high was also a clear hit on the falling TL accross the LHs on the 60m and 4 hrly lower highs.....no...
The strength of this fall is now lessening, so I've closed my last short and taken an initial buy at the BRN - the low so far is at a minor up TL, with yesterday's low another 20 pips away, so I could be a tad early....TWT

Edit: now the hourly candle has closed as a small spinning top - so not quite a doji / pin, but with good (tick) volume.....now we need to see some wider green 5m & 15m candles to confirm that the low is in as a HL on the hourly chart.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #509
  • Jun 25, 2014 9:48am Jun 25, 2014 9:48am
The Turkish stock market opened in the red by 2% this morning and stay stable there until 11H00 am Belgian time! Then went slowly back up and then faster when the first afternoon data of the us came in rather poor (GDP and durable goods) (affected by Pentagon reduction of spending) The US index went down and also the tyr and the zar as well as European stock markets but with the us data on services in May hitting a record number (high), the reaction of the market is slowly turning and thus the tyr and the zar are going back up also the US index, also the European stock markets while the us stock started down and is now flat. I was absent this afternoon thus I could not participate to this unexpected (by me) movement but anyway I doubt I would have seen the dimension of the movement… In summary we have probably lost a day or two for the up movement toward 2,15
  • #510
  • Jun 25, 2014 3:37pm Jun 25, 2014 3:37pm
joyfultrader:
The bearishness in UZAR vs UTRY you mentioned has been going on last few weeks. More so since ZAR broke its 1.5 month Trendline.
(Notice the rejection on retest of trendline in chart + subsequent 50fib short holds since top of 10.85)

However, rite now ZAR is sitting at 50fib longs, so closed shorts. Waiting for TRY to hit 2.1230 area to add longs.
Attached Image
  • #511
  • Jun 26, 2014 3:12am Jun 26, 2014 3:12am
Dear All,
On international front, Maliki has sent back Kerry to his “dear studies”! In other words, no national union government in Iraq! So reduction of tension is not for tomorrow… We’ do not know yet if he (Maliki) is ready to make a deal with Kurdistan to receive some help….
Regarding the Valuation of our currencies (TYR/ZAR) , It is clear that the global markets has received a choc yesterday with the -3% US GDP for the first quarter (plus poor new orders). The US index is still down, the EU stock markets all down and yields on debentures all down. Many currencies went up against the dollar in the aftermath (NZD, AUD, EURO, CAD, etc.) The frustration of this is that the Fed in the beige book had integrated this bad figure in its new projection by reducing the 2014 projection at 2% growth! But the market seems to believe that this GDP data could have an impact on tapering procedures and future US interest rates…! I Honestly I do not know how long the market will take to correct its feelings! Let’s hope that today’s figures on employment and income are really good at 12,30 GMT…! When some of you re saying that they have seen the downside in the charts before the events, it beats me because I cannot believe it.
  • #512
  • Jun 26, 2014 3:44am Jun 26, 2014 3:44am
Article on turkey gold trade

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ndering-scheme
  • #513
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:10am Jun 26, 2014 5:10am
20 minutes ago:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #514
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:32am Jun 26, 2014 5:32am
Quoting Islander
{quote} The strength of this fall is now lessening, so I've closed my last short and taken an initial buy at the BRN - the low so far is at a minor up TL, with yesterday's low another 20 pips away, so I could be a tad early....TWT Edit: now the hourly candle has closed as a small spinning top - so not quite a doji / pin, but with good (tick) volume.....now we need to see some wider green 5m & 15m candles to confirm that the low is in as a HL on the hourly chart.....
and I was!.....this morning, my limit order was hit at my next S&R level ~ 2.1250 as there was an early push down to make a new weekly low, but still above last week's low. The low was an hourly hammer on average volume and a 4 hr doji / pin......now to see what the Initial Claims data brings....so far only an 80 pip range as the consolidation - hopefully accumulation - continues....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #515
  • Jun 26, 2014 8:31am Jun 26, 2014 8:31am
To Jeffmichaels
Thanks for Your note on SA. I have not been able to find anything on the metal strike possibilities in South Africa but the fact that the ZAR is moving continuously up with MACD and RIS positive for five hours at least (10,56 to 10,67) means that something serious is really cooking! Plus the fact that for the first time in weeks, there is no symmetry between Tyr and Zar movements! Anyway, if it is right, and a strike comes in, it means that zar will go at least to 10,85 or 10,90 due to the accumulation of problems in that country (including the potential rise in oil prices).

The data from US have been mixed (good employment but limited personal spending while reasonable income growth. Anyway the market is slowly considering the data as somewhat positive and the dollar is slowly going up, except against the TYR!!!

Regarding Ukraine, there is an unconfirmed report from press saying the the pro-Russian rebels would accept talks with the Ukrainian government on the basis of the Ukrainian president plan /Let’s see some real confirmation because it is somewhat unexpected. Anyway, the president of Ukraine confirmed to EU today that, if tomorrow the cease fire is not confirmed definitely, he will take strong (but undefined) actions against the rebels.
  • #516
  • Jun 26, 2014 10:37am Jun 26, 2014 10:37am
i cant explain this... I have a bad history conserning the long positions in this particular pair...

Every time i see a long opportunity it goes south

Always i swear that i will not touch "the longs" and always i break my promise

Now I am under the water again... and this damn swap make it worst...

Venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #517
  • Jun 26, 2014 12:16pm Jun 26, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting spinozagr
i cant explain this... I have a bad history conserning the long positions in this particular pair... Every time i see a long opportunity it goes south Always i swear that i will not touch "the longs" and always i break my promise Now I am under the water again... and this damn swap make it worst... Venceremos
its uncomfortable playing against the swap,may be its better to take short position from a higher level with swap in ones favour.just t be clear i have taken very small long positions at 2.1293 lets see what happen .
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #518
  • Jun 26, 2014 12:44pm Jun 26, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} and I was!.....this morning, my limit order was hit at my next S&R level ~ 2.1250 as there was an early push down to make a new weekly low, but still above last week's low. The low was an hourly hammer on average volume and a 4 hr doji / pin......now to see what the Initial Claims data brings....so far only an 80 pip range as the consolidation - hopefully accumulation - continues....
The problem with all that is there is no technical evidence to say this downtrend has stopped. Whilst this could be consolidation before another upward leg the support level from say 2.1215 to 2.1270 is being repeatedly bumped and whilst it is holding for now there is no sign of significant buying, rather just market makers manipulating the price to catch stops. There were plenty of signals for decent takes today but you had to really put aside any long bias and just be guided by the charts (always a struggle at the time). I would love to say my timing on these was spot on... I now have some rather silly looking longs which need arm bands. As a rule I do not hold positions overnight. I may on this occasion but the odds are these will get taken out by my stops.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 222 KB
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #519
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:51pm Jun 26, 2014 2:51pm
US data did not help the trade today, it has been soft as of late. We are approaching the 38.2 fib @ 2.1220, I expect this level will hold-- spikes below it will become pins. The market likes painting symmetrical patterns on the chart, given the 820 pip range of the current bullish swing, a pullback to 2.1180 would bring my target of 2.2 into good focus. So, I'll be looking for real support @ 2.1220 with a possible spike to 2.1180. TWT. Patience definitely needed on this one.
  • #520
  • Jun 27, 2014 1:29am Jun 27, 2014 1:29am
Quoting Scotty B
US data did not help the trade today, it has been soft as of late. We are approaching the 38.2 fib @ 2.1220, I expect this level will hold-- spikes below it will become pins. The market likes painting symmetrical patterns on the chart, given the 820 pip range of the current bullish swing, a pullback to 2.1180 would bring my target of 2.2 into good focus. So, I'll be looking for real support @ 2.1220 with a possible spike to 2.1180. TWT. Patience definitely needed on this one.
Soft indeed, inside a 350 pip range for 10 daysfor this pair is unheard of. Seems too have been some support at those levels allready this morning and I'started a small long on TRY (2.1248) & also ZAR (10.6302) just now, which are popping into green red again as I type.
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