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  • #481
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:42am Jun 23, 2014 3:42am
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear Scotty, My colleague within EU are saying that the double talk between Poutine an Lavrov might be typical double talk with Russians but they now feel that it could also reflect a feud within the kremlin since Poutine sees to many shortcomings in the intervention while the hawks are fighting to get an intervention! Thus the game is becoming very delicate following their views. It does not help Turkey As far as Iraq is concerned, the shut up of the pipeline from Iraq to Turkey plus all the high tension on which you agree cannot generate...
I think that the recently completed pipeline in Kurdistan that joins with the pipeline to Ceyhan on Turkey's Mediterranean coast on its boarder with Turkey is still open - OK, only ~250,000 barrels a day, but well protected by the 200,000 well trained and disciplined Peshmerga army. Its about the only positive in the area.....

PS Earlier, I bought the retest of Friday's low......a small HL.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #482
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:07am Jun 23, 2014 7:07am
Zar is going bazurk due to the fears on Lyra! (10,59 now..) The Tyr, for the third time, is moving from 2,1370 to 2,1450 and back but I do not have the technicals to identify the tops and bottoms on time…! True that the main pipeline is opened but not the one from Mosul to turkey…
  • #483
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:07pm Jun 23, 2014 8:07pm
Alright guys, the market is consolidating as we approach tomorrows rate decision. All we can do now is wait to hear from the CBRT. I will check in tomorrow after the announcement. I'm expecting a decent cut, but he may just keep rates where they are. TWT. Be very careful trading pre news.
  • #484
  • Jun 24, 2014 1:57am Jun 24, 2014 1:57am
Quoting Scotty B
Alright guys, the market is consolidating as we approach tomorrows rate decision. All we can do now is wait to hear from the CBRT. I will check in tomorrow after the announcement. I'm expecting a decent cut, but he may just keep rates where they are. TWT. Be very careful trading pre news.
Whilst we know the CBRT meet today is there a scheduled announcement time or are they going to play games again and announce at 22:00 GMT?

Whatever the announcement is there is enough unpredictability about their internal politics to make this extremely volatile today and somewhat dangerous. Might be better to let the dust settle on this one.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #485
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:20am Jun 24, 2014 2:20am
Today is rate decision... rate now %9.50
rate cut expect 0.50 point.
time Gmt 11:00 hour
  • #486
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:28am Jun 24, 2014 2:28am
Quoting revoli
{quote} Whilst we know the CBRT meet today is there a scheduled announcement time or are they going to play games again and announce at 22:00 GMT? Whatever the announcement is there is enough unpredictability about their internal politics to make this extremely volatile today and somewhat dangerous. Might be better to let the dust settle on this one.
Who knows - but I seem to remember that there was a reason for that delayed announcement. I'm hoping for some early volatility as I bought the spike down below the BRN and would like to bank some pips before I have to go out, hoping to be back by 12:00 gmt.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #487
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:54am Jun 24, 2014 2:54am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Who knows - but I seem to remember that there was a reason for that delayed announcement. I'm hoping for some early volatility as I bought the spike down below the BRN and would like to bank some pips before I have to go out, hoping to be back by 12:00 gmt.....
I did the same but PA now make me wonder. The last announcement followed an extraordinary meeting of the CBRT. All part of the lets keep them guessing game they seem to play. Nothing like a bit of instability and uncertainty to make your economy grow.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #488
  • Jun 24, 2014 3:14am Jun 24, 2014 3:14am
I'm watching 2.1269 for support prior to the rate announcement.
  • #489
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:17am Jun 24, 2014 6:17am
So the TCB has cut its Repo by 75bps vs the 50 bps expected .......seen on the charts as huge spikes both ways - aka stop sweeps - with spreads > 50 pips.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #490
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:20am Jun 24, 2014 6:20am
I am a bit surprised that it didn't really move up after the rate cut so far. Do you think this will happen later?
  • #491
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:32am Jun 24, 2014 7:32am
It is confirmed that Pro-Russians are applying a cease fire for four or five days! Russian President Putin asked lawmakers in Russia's upper house of parliament to rescind approval they granted to use force in Ukraine! EU believe it is a significant political signal from Russia that they are ready for a deal/compromise. It would be interesting to see what political and other concessions Ukraine would have to offer to Russia in exchange and if the Pro Russian are willing to depart from their base line of requests which are unacceptable to OSCE, EU, US, and Ukraine…
So far Tyr was holding decently around 2,1300 then went down to 2,1279 before announcement and then Back to 2,1340/50 The local stock market went down 1,5% and regained it in the end morning. ZAR going bazurk around 10,53/56 Where is it going next?
  • #492
  • Jun 24, 2014 9:02am Jun 24, 2014 9:02am
Quoting joyfultrader
It is confirmed that Pro-Russians are applying a cease fire for four or five days! Russian President Putin asked lawmakers in Russia's upper house of parliament to rescind approval they granted to use force in Ukraine! EU believe it is a significant political signal from Russia that they are ready for a deal/compromise. It would be interesting to see what political and other concessions Ukraine would have to offer to Russia in exchange and if the Pro Russian are willing to depart from their base line of requests which are unacceptable to OSCE, EU,...
thanks for the input,is that mean we are coming out of the risk averse environment and expect to see rally in lira?
despite the carry differential lira seems to be going down for last 2 to 3 yrs and the recent rally since january seems to be more of a correction of that rally hence, carry is not the main play
lira movement seem to be due to inherent weakness and instablity of the economy and sorrounding region.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #493
  • Jun 24, 2014 9:33am Jun 24, 2014 9:33am
To all: let’s not forget that Turkey has still to regain 70 hostages in the hands of Baghdadi and that it is confirmed that Baghdadi put his hands on over 400.000.000 dollar cash in the Mosul area (mainly in banks and in refinery vaults) which does not help the situation in Northern Iraq. This is why Turkey is silent on any language. Thus there the situation worsen everyday so far! It is doubtful that any positive sign could be coming before weeks!
Regarding Ukraine, until OSCE with its 900 supervisors in southern Ukraine will be duly authorized to demilitarized the pro-Russians and begin to help restore democratic and lawful rules, it should be considered high tension in Ukraine. EU has reconfirmed yesterday its firm position to sanction Poutine economically if he does not help to restore peace in Ukraine. But EU still believes today that there are more chances on resuming fighting than getting peace in the short term!

Unfortunately this does not appears to help to figure out where the Tyr will go in the short run! So far it is not really moving Let’s hope that Scotty and technical analysis will tell us something
  • #494
  • Jun 24, 2014 10:22am Jun 24, 2014 10:22am
Definitely seems strange that this isnt higher after the rate cuts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #495
  • Jun 24, 2014 10:50am Jun 24, 2014 10:50am
Quoting Citiboy
Definitely seems strange that this isnt higher after the rate cuts
have the feeling that those highs are upcoming... i have already taken position... and just wait to see when the "big guys" will pull the trigger

Patience ...

Venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #496
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:12am Jun 24, 2014 11:12am
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} have the feeling that those highs are upcoming... i have already taken position... and just wait to see when the "big guys" will pull the trigger Patience ... Venceremos
Midas touch?...
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #497
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:59am Jun 24, 2014 11:59am
Just at the time of writing, it appears that the Tyr is moving and finally the Zar also (10,61). The Tyr is now quoting 2,1405 and apparently is going up mildly. Thus we can have some hope, for the next day, to see it back above 2,1450… Worth mentioning that the USD Index is also moving up by 1% (8047) and that the Vix is moving slowly up also. But the US figures were again above expectations thus the stock market correction might not be yet for the next days...!
  • #498
  • Jun 24, 2014 12:57pm Jun 24, 2014 12:57pm
For the moment, MACD doesnt show so much euphoria on going short.

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  • #499
  • Jun 24, 2014 12:57pm Jun 24, 2014 12:57pm
Alright, as everyone knows we got our rate cut. The Lira didn't immediately move after the first cut we saw either, it took a couple days. The market could very likely shake out the loose hands (cheap liquidity) through tomorrow. Its just a matter of time now before the bull flag on the daily breaks. I believe we are right on track to see our 2.2 target by mid July.
  • #500
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:53pm Jun 24, 2014 11:53pm
So luckily I was able to get rid of my shorts at 2.1289 with an blue eye ;-)

But I never would short this pair as with my main broker the swap rate for longs is very expensive (-58.1) and for shorts it is awesome good (+53.1 - 10 times more than for audusd or nzdusd longs).
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