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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #11,721
  • Feb 6, 2014 6:53am Feb 6, 2014 6:53am
usd/hkd
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  • #11,722
  • Feb 9, 2014 6:11am Feb 9, 2014 6:11am
Quoting calderone
{image}{image}
Hey Calderone, I see some reasonable possibilities in the GBP/AUD. Chart shows the support zone around 1.75, confluence with 38.2% Fib retrace of the recent uptrend coupled with 23.6% Fib of major downtrend and monthly S2. Support also seen at 50% and 61.8% Fib levels.

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Nil desperandum
  • #11,723
  • Feb 9, 2014 9:36am Feb 9, 2014 9:36am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Hey Calderone, I see some reasonable possibilities in the GBP/AUD. Chart shows the support zone around 1.75, confluence with 38.2% Fib retrace of the recent uptrend coupled with 23.6% Fib of major downtrend and monthly S2. Support also seen at 50% and 61.8% Fib levels. {image}
Hey VP! I looked at your chart and then pulled a larger swing fib on my daily. This is why it's good to consult others. I would also look to buy in the boxed area.
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  • #11,724
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:41pm Feb 22, 2014 1:41pm
  • #11,725
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:36am Mar 30, 2014 7:36am
Hi all,
Hope all the regulars in this thread are doing well. Just putting up a post in A/U. I think a major drop in the indices will be due shortly. Missed my entry on A/U on friday but will enter manually on open monday. Mark, Saxon, Amy and Calderon are you guys still around? Havent heard from Shahab any news from him?
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,726
  • Mar 30, 2014 9:04am Mar 30, 2014 9:04am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi all, Hope all the regulars in this thread are doing well. Just putting up a post in A/U. I think a major drop in the indices will be due shortly. Missed my entry on A/U on friday but will enter manually on open monday. Mark, Saxon, Amy and Calderon are you guys still around? Havent heard from Shahab any news from him? {image}
good analysis
feeling a bull back on 0.9132
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post7372088
let's see how she turns out this week
cheers
  • #11,727
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:21pm Mar 30, 2014 5:21pm
Hi All,
I post this in case of any interest. U.S. Euro 2 yr yeilds are obviously a well known driver of the EUR but sometimes the change in differential takes time for people to beleive in it. I think we are seeing that now. I will be only taking sell triggers going forward I think. My projected range high this week is around 1.3860, so I'll look out for an entry around that level.
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  • #11,728
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:03pm Mar 30, 2014 7:03pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi all, Hope all the regulars in this thread are doing well. Just putting up a post in A/U. I think a major drop in the indices will be due shortly. Missed my entry on A/U on friday but will enter manually on open monday. Mark, Saxon, Amy and Calderon are you guys still around? Havent heard from Shahab any news from him? {image}

Hi Tradoholic, what is your target for au? It looks well supported on my charts, to me it looks like any pullback will be brought targeting 97c
  • #11,729
  • Mar 30, 2014 8:58pm Mar 30, 2014 8:58pm
I'm around and checking in. Glad to see you (Tradoholic) and AmyC! Hyperion, thanks for posting as well. I thought this thread had died. I sure miss Saxon. Haven't heard from anyone in a while. Miss the old crew.
  • #11,730
  • Mar 31, 2014 1:57am Mar 31, 2014 1:57am
Quoting amyc
{quote} Hi Tradoholic, what is your target for au? It looks well supported on my charts, to me it looks like any pullback will be brought targeting 97c
Hi Amy,
My first target is 0.9145, but ultimately I see it down to 0.88xx. Ofcourse fundamentally the RBA decision and statement will need to be checked as well.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,731
  • Mar 31, 2014 3:25am Mar 31, 2014 3:25am
HI Calderon,
Nice to see you again. I have been trading on and off, but mainly busy with my business. I keep checking this thread but cant see any of the old crew as you said. Lets keep it going if we can.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,732
  • Apr 1, 2014 6:22am Apr 1, 2014 6:22am
Hi all,
Above Trade got triggered today after the news and in moving in the right direction. 70 Pips so far.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,733
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:59am Apr 2, 2014 9:59am
I'm packing up house and moving soon. Not far. I'll keep checking in....not trading a lot right now as I am pretty distracted.
  • #11,734
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:15am Apr 3, 2014 5:15am
Quoting calderone
I'm packing up house and moving soon. Not far. I'll keep checking in....not trading a lot right now as I am pretty distracted.
Good luck with your move mate. Keep in touch.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,735
  • Apr 3, 2014 5:19am Apr 3, 2014 5:19am
Hi all,
Been getting in and out of EU shorts. As per the chart I am waiting for the break of my FE level and will go short again. I think there is still another 100 pips or so to be made here.
Good luck.
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,736
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:06am Apr 7, 2014 3:06am
Hi All,
Just an update, shorts in EU still in play, taken a new short term short in GJ, tight SL based on FE level that has been cleared and re-kissed. Will monitor this beast closely,
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,737
  • Apr 11, 2014 6:28pm Apr 11, 2014 6:28pm
HI All,
Just an update and view on the market. GJ was stopped out, EU after changing SL= FE level was also stopped out but aleast had a few pips up sleeve which covered for GJ. Currently short of GBP and EU. Will post charts later.
Been studying the indices, as well as UJ that normally is a barometer for risk analysis. With S&P, Dow, Footsie, Dax, and other major markets dropping and most on a break out point, it seems pretty dangerous. roro if you are around pl give your opinion. With UJ at a major support point and threatening to break, kt is also a sign that risk trades will be off and hence time to long JPY and US. Some analysts are predicting a fall of upto 60% in major indices. Wouldnt be surprised as I was expecting this to happen last year.

I will post some charts over the weekend on Indices and why I think a major drop is quite possible. Hence taking positions in FX market can be very profitable.

Lets get a discussion going on this subject. Shall we?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,738
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:16pm Apr 13, 2014 7:16pm
Hi Tradoholic

I agree with you about the indicies dropping this year. 2014 is the next year in a 7 year cycle that includes tops in 1929, 1937, 1946, 1952, 1959, 1966, 1973, 1980, 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and now 2014.

The 7 year cycle falls within a set of much larger cycles that to me makes 2014 most comparable to 1946 and 1987 highs. The falls in those years were 30% and 36% respectively, so I think we will see something more like that this year
  • #11,739
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:38pm Jun 23, 2014 8:38pm
Simple channel formed in Weekly AUD/USD, however, it's hard to see it falling with U.S. stocks marching on. Yes there still is a correlation but with a twist, second chart is Aussie Dollar over the MOO (Agricultural stocks on the NYSE)... still I like chart like the AUD and will keep my eyes peeled for decent sell triggers.
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  • #11,740
  • Jun 24, 2014 10:45pm Jun 24, 2014 10:45pm
...and here's an updated chart as posted top of page of the EUR/USD over the 2 Yr interest rate differential... it's still trucking south, "Mind the Gap"
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