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  • #906,161
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:42am Jun 23, 2014 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i hear what your saying. math is the purest science. it cant be manipulated, its always true. it takes 2 goats to produce another. the thing is they come in twins or triplets mostly. the same people have a story of loading 2 animals on a boat. they knew a lot about nature. it takes 2 to produce more. and 1/2 the parents =1. or 2 parents =1+.
Well i am going to counter argument here. Count gold imports into Asia, count global gold production, count gold selling and you are gona get one ugly math equasion. First numbers wont really add up, secondly you will see that demand is so strong that gold price math vise should be way higher than it is. Manipulated math. Thats why i never trust in math when trading markets, it can be done in milions ways to manipulate math trough and trough on any financial market.
  • #906,162
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:43am Jun 23, 2014 10:43am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} snipset from above cited article: So when using Fibonacci retracements, don't be surprised to see prices reverse a few ticks above or below a Fibonacci target. This occurs because other traders are viewing the same levels and trade accordingly. Fibonacci retracements help to focus your attention on a specific price level at a specific time; how prices react at that point determines the significance of the level.


has someone ever seen a probability distribution curve of the fib-levels?
  • #906,163
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:46am Jun 23, 2014 10:46am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} has someone ever seen a probability distribution curve of the fib-levels?
Nope, post if you find one.. should be interesting to look at
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #906,164
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:48am Jun 23, 2014 10:48am
Quoting MaxDoom
{image}

Damn ) MD your cartoons are starting to put the point on the i more and more, a lot of so called pro-traders here ( I want to say that I don't consider myself pro ) say the are opening at one value and as soon as the markets goes the opposite they come to repost and tell everyone that they closed those positions and opened in the current market direction.
I think they are pathological narcissists who are craving for attention online because of the lack of social skills in their daily life which leads with 0 or close to 0 human contact or relations.


Keep up the good shorts, I mean work ;D
  • #906,165
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:52am Jun 23, 2014 10:52am
I feel that you are all losing your sense of humour
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  • #906,166
  • Jun 23, 2014 10:54am Jun 23, 2014 10:54am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well i am going to counter argument here. Count gold imports into Asia, count global gold production, count gold selling and you are gona get one ugly math equasion. First numbers wont really add up, secondly you will see that demand is so strong that gold price math vise should be way higher than it is. Manipulated math. Thats why i never trust in math when trading markets, it can be done in milions ways to manipulate math trough and trough on any financial market.
i have no answer that will satisfy u. we are probably in agreement with the exception that there are other forces in the mix. i do use fibs. that's why when gold was near 2k i was expecting a drop. people were anti drop then. being pro drop pissed off people and made me a target. 50% is just normal.. we have not reached 50% and it may never. the thing is, it already did as expected in this drop. it just hasn't as of yet reached where it normally does. btw i am pro drop silver, and using it as a proxy, gold would follow.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #906,167
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:01am Jun 23, 2014 11:01am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Nope, post if you find one.. should be interesting to look at

If no one is able to find such data, and no-one is willing to provide such data, two questions come to mind:


a) who told people to trade the levels?

b) why do people still trade those levels?
  • #906,168
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:05am Jun 23, 2014 11:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} If no one is able to find such data, and no-one is willing to provide such data, two questions come to mind: a) who told people to trade the levels? b) why do people still trade those levels?
as you know at the end of the day it is a price distribution system, it works because enough people follow it
I use fibs in all my trading I have done some analysis on it in the past but of course the results do vary between securities you can't apply the same rules to a very trendy security v a very ranging one etc...

later
  • #906,169
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:06am Jun 23, 2014 11:06am
Quoting MaxDoom
I feel that you are all losing your sense of humour {image}


Naahhh some of them are too busy manipulating the market 0.05 EURUSD on long / short to kill us fishes
  • #906,170
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:08am Jun 23, 2014 11:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i have no answer that will satisfy u. we are probably in agreement with the exception that there are other forces in the mix. i do use fibs. that's why when gold was near 2k i was expecting a drop. people were anti drop then. being pro drop pissed off people and made me a target. 50% is just normal.. we have not reached 50% and it may never. the thing is, it already did as expected in this drop. it just hasn't as of yet reached where it normally does. btw i am pro drop silver, and using it as a proxy, gold would...


haha, I can remember that time as well. I called the top via EW, and got many angry mails as well. Also I warned people in my family to not to buy Gold at those high levels, instead advised to sell their Gold.

Gold is special. You have the most momentum most of the time in wave 5. That is due to the fact, that Gold rises on fear, not so much on gread. But when we were so close to the magical 2000 so many people dreamed of 5000, 10000 or even 100000. Ridiculous.......

My optimal EW long term target is so deep, that I only dare to speak of it seldomly LOL
  • #906,171
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:13am Jun 23, 2014 11:13am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} as you know at the end of the day it is a price distribution system, it works because enough people follow it I use fibs in all my trading I have done some analysis on it in the past but of course the results do vary between securities you can't apply the same rules to a very trendy security v a very ranging one etc... later
Thanks for commenting

I know, we should also see differences between short term up and down, and long term up and down. We see differences between currencies, metals, Gold, indices, stocks etc.


The question, if a certaibn level holds, can not be answered by the fib-levels itself. Other factors contribute here.

When you only play the fib-levels, your money management has to care for your risk
  • #906,172
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:16am Jun 23, 2014 11:16am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} haha, I can remember that time as well. I called the top via EW, and got many angry mails as well. Also I warned people in my family to not to buy Gold at those high levels, instead advised to sell their Gold. Gold is special. You have the most momentum most of the time in wave 5. That is due to the fact, that Gold rises on fear, not so much on gread. But when we were so close to the magical 2000 so many people dreamed of 5000, 10000 or even 100000. Ridiculous....... My optimal EW long term target is so deep, that I only dare to speak of...
so now you know the story. i posted anti long gold as others were saying the opposite. its very easy to pick them out, the ones who are left can be counted on one hand. i dont take pleasure in their loss. i also will not be abused either.

mine are also deeper using silver as a guide.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #906,173
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:24am Jun 23, 2014 11:24am
bbl std
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #906,174
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:26am Jun 23, 2014 11:26am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} haha, I can remember that time as well. I called the top via EW, and got many angry mails as well. Also I warned people in my family to not to buy Gold at those high levels, instead advised to sell their Gold. Gold is special. You have the most momentum most of the time in wave 5. That is due to the fact, that Gold rises on fear, not so much on gread. But when we were so close to the magical 2000 so many people dreamed of 5000, 10000 or even 100000. Ridiculous....... My optimal EW long term target is so deep, that I only dare to speak of...
Silver has been behaving better of late, but gold looks she wants to participate soon.

Silver still has a valid target of 14, with gold offer possibility of extension.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #906,175
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:03pm Jun 23, 2014 12:03pm
Scalping: s@35955... with 5 pips I'm fine...
  • #906,176
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:07pm Jun 23, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting zapiron
Scalping: s@35955... with 5 pips I'm fine...
It will go higher i think
  • #906,177
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:07pm Jun 23, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Silver has been behaving better of late, but gold looks she wants to participate soon. Silver still has a valid target of 14, with gold offer possibility of extension.


keep in mind: commodities, especially Gold and Silver, have a high tendency to develop very extended 5th waves (or terminal waves generally speaking). So chance is high, that we even see lower levels
  • #906,178
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:12pm Jun 23, 2014 12:12pm
EU is on the climb today it seems despite the soft data coming from Euroland and the relatively strong econ data from US of A.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #906,179
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:22pm Jun 23, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting Nan-ook
{quote} It will go higher i think
sssssh......this aint bout thinking for god sake . I hate those who employ this verb in fx spot.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #906,180
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:24pm Jun 23, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} keep in mind: commodities, especially Gold and Silver, have a high tendency to develop very extended 5th waves (or terminal waves generally speaking). So chance is high, that we even see lower levels
silver has one too low to mention. so i discarded it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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