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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #46,801
  • Edited 2:12am Jun 21, 2014 1:38am | Edited 2:12am
According to the latest FOMC, the first rate hike is most likely be in 2015.
​Also, at the current Tapering pace, it would take about 4 months to get rid of QE (-10 bn per month of 35 bn), and that would leave us at October this year when QE is gone. And rate hike in 2015? It looks like this is where we going if nothing too surprising pops up.

While housing and retail sector are still weak, I'd say USDJPY range would continue and 101.00 level would be a quite solid support for now and next week.

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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,802
  • Jun 21, 2014 2:59am Jun 21, 2014 2:59am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} its hard to say nowdays but dollar is weakening due to FOMC statement yesterday.
Rate hike said to be in 2015 (most likely), but GDP forecast was CUT.
Regardless how dollar react, cutting GDP is definitely a dovish tone.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,803
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:58pm Jun 21, 2014 12:58pm
It will most likely go up or down as a result of the data coming out this week. On Sunday @ 9:35 EST there is a Japanese Manufacturing PMI coming out.

Then at 2 AM BOJ Gov. Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Last time he gave a speech a few days ago he mentioned that QE would be going on for the foreseeable future and yen broke above 102 after that.

IF he mentions something like that again, it is very likely to test the highs of the range that it has been stuck in for a while. I would think 102.50 to 102.80. Probably can't do much more than that until more news on Monday and later in the week.

Another possibility is that the Iraq conflict heats up over the weekend and yen gains strength due to safe-haven status. In that case we could see downside to retest 101.4 to 101.60. We will see.
  • #46,804
  • Jun 21, 2014 1:16pm Jun 21, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting teddybomber
It will most likely go up or down as a result of the data coming out this week. On Sunday @ 9:35 EST there is a Japanese Manufacturing PMI coming out. Then at 2 AM BOJ Gov. Kuroda speaks in Tokyo.
Quoting teddybomber
Another possibility is that the Iraq conflict heats up over the weekend and yen gains strength due to safe-haven status. In that case we could see downside to retest 101.4 to 101.60. We will see.
US consumer confident and housing numbers are coming out next week from US side. Due to the already weakening house and retail sector, these are the numbers to watch to move forward towards the "rate hike"
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,805
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:25am Jun 23, 2014 12:25am
Someone who wants to call bulls..........>??

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  • #46,806
  • Edited 3:43am Jun 23, 2014 2:09am | Edited 3:43am
just went for some longs here at 101.91...risking 10 or so...

edit...

not the support I was hoping for, added some bids at 83, all stops at 79 now...

edit 2..

loaded the boat, makes me long now at 101.87, risking 101.79, try for 102.51...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #46,807
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:28am Jun 23, 2014 5:28am
Quoting PayTheLimit
just went for some longs here at 101.91...risking 10 or so... edit... not the support I was hoping for, added some bids at 83, all stops at 79 now... edit 2.. loaded the boat, makes me long now at 101.87, risking 101.79, try for 102.51...
I joined the boat too...
Money is People - People is Money
  • #46,808
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:04am Jun 23, 2014 6:04am
Quoting KieronZ
{quote} I joined the boat too...
feels like there might be a hole in it...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #46,809
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:06am Jun 23, 2014 6:06am
Quoting KieronZ
{quote} I joined the boat too...
Got one @ .84, just considering adding another, will have a quick look at the NYSE futures.
Possibly the SL should be .73
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,810
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:28am Jun 23, 2014 6:28am
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_R2IpZYCLMH8/TH...jpg?imgmax=800
  • #46,811
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:29am Jun 23, 2014 6:29am
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #46,812
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:35am Jun 23, 2014 6:35am
Quoting Ken A
{image}
Keep rocking the same boat
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #46,813
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:37am Jun 23, 2014 6:37am
Nah looks like 101.80 is safe until 10:00 ET

Don't rock the boat
  • #46,814
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:40am Jun 23, 2014 6:40am
Quoting Ken A
Nah looks like 101.80 is safe until 10:00 ET Don't rock the boat
Reminds me of traders in EU thread though ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #46,815
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:43am Jun 23, 2014 6:43am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Reminds me of traders in EU thread though ...
It's not polite to talk about Paythelimit while he is here ...............
  • #46,816
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:43am Jun 23, 2014 6:43am
LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #46,817
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:51am Jun 23, 2014 6:51am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} It's not polite to talk about Paythelimit while he is here ...............
bastard...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #46,818
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:51am Jun 23, 2014 6:51am
bbl


Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #46,819
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:59am Jun 23, 2014 6:59am
... Last 9 posts.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #46,820
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:56am Jun 23, 2014 7:56am
Quoting Ken A
Nah looks like 101.80 is safe until 10:00 ET Don't rock the boat
....watz 'appnin at 10am ET??
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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