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SPX and DAX - CFDs are the place to be

  • #101
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:59am Jun 20, 2014 5:59am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Hi tripr, thanks and welcome to the thread! I find crude is mostly very technical and it generally follows supply/demand and tops/bottoms perfectly on larger timeframes (4 hours and daily). Fundamentally, I only look for instability in the Middle East, on days when the news of conflict first breaks. Those are great days to long crude and let it run all day. Time-wise I generally open new positions after Nymex opens as the volumes tend to be low on most days before Nymex bell. I then usually keep those positions for a couple of days at a...
thanks much for your response. enjoy your thread !
  • #102
  • Jun 20, 2014 6:05am Jun 20, 2014 6:05am
Seems like DAX deflected powerfully off 10050, some people might have think they paid too much for it, the highest point in months and years

Maybe it is going through a wave 4 retracement and turn around to test higher highs after a bit of a sort out
  • #103
  • Jun 20, 2014 6:12am Jun 20, 2014 6:12am
Quoting wiseambition
Seems like DAX deflected powerfully off 10050, some people might have think they paid too much for it, the highest point in months and years Maybe it is going through a wave 4 retracement and turn around to test higher highs after a bit of a sort out
It's just larger stops being popped, then back to first available demand and back up again after the last of the sell orders have been cleared at the higher level. Typical order flow in my book
  • #104
  • Jun 20, 2014 6:15am Jun 20, 2014 6:15am
Yes, order flow trading and elliott wave are much of the same thing in my book. The market has structure, and what we see is impulsive moves, correction and then another impulsive move, therefore it would not surprise me if the buyers push it higher, certainly there have been powerful moves in the last 10 minutes that way
  • #105
  • Jun 20, 2014 7:14am Jun 20, 2014 7:14am
Quoting wiseambition
Yes, order flow trading and elliott wave are much of the same thing in my book. The market has structure, and what we see is impulsive moves, correction and then another impulsive move, therefore it would not surprise me if the buyers push it higher, certainly there have been powerful moves in the last 10 minutes that way
Feel free to post some charts with EW analysis, we could use an elliottician in here
  • #106
  • Jun 20, 2014 7:37am Jun 20, 2014 7:37am
I wouldn't consider myself an elliottician. Did he die rich, the man who invented the concept?

I have also read enough articles to realise that you can't just use the wave as an indicator to trade with, and not many people see the same situation with the same chart (it also depends on the timeframe).

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20140620-wo7c-67kb
  • #107
  • Jun 20, 2014 8:25am Jun 20, 2014 8:25am
Quoting wiseambition
I wouldn't consider myself an elliottician. Did he die rich, the man who invented the concept? I have also read enough articles to realise that you can't just use the wave as an indicator to trade with, and not many people see the same situation with the same chart (it also depends on the timeframe). http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20140620-wo7c-67kb
I found out that Mr. Elliott could find these rules after an age of 70.. and with 75 he published Nature's Law -- The Secret of the Universe, died 2 years after that. Which means: he couldn't make use of his own system I guess.

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108
  • Jun 20, 2014 8:29am Jun 20, 2014 8:29am
That's interesting. The laws and patterns in nature right up to the structure of the universe are same thing really as the markets. And chaos theory isnt quite what the word would make you think, much happens for a reason, and so does the movement in price

See what 2:30 NY equities opening does for this dax index now
  • #109
  • Jun 20, 2014 9:19am Jun 20, 2014 9:19am
Quoting wiseambition
That's interesting. The laws and patterns in nature right up to the structure of the universe are same thing really as the markets. And chaos theory isnt quite what the word would make you think, much happens for a reason, and so does the movement in price See what 2:30 NY equities opening does for this dax index now
I find markets quite logical when you know what to look for. They are a perfect stamp of human psychology, governed by supply and demand
  • #110
  • Jun 20, 2014 9:35am Jun 20, 2014 9:35am
German market going opposite direction to London
  • #111
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:33pm Jun 20, 2014 5:33pm
Thanks too j4d at last i found a thread about SPX and DAX .
  • #112
  • Jun 20, 2014 9:23pm Jun 20, 2014 9:23pm
get ready for some big drop of stocks. And hold your shorts for months.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #113
  • Edited 7:43pm Jun 22, 2014 1:12am | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting ffleo
get ready for some big drop of stocks. And hold your shorts for months. {image}
Yeah, but before we drop we could easily go to 2000-2100 the SPX500 and DAX possible to 11,000
This last Friday when options expired many many people lost a shi* load of money as when options expired they had pretty much gained at one point over double what they ended last quarter with gains or in other words the gains for this quarter were what they were of last quarter and the quarter before. At one point the SPX500 hit 1970 which is 70 points in gains at its highs. The last 2 quarters the SPX500 had gained roughly 30 points each quarter or basically 60 points over the last 2 quarters. Did we really grow fundamentally that much this last quarter??? I doubt it. These gains were manipulated gains to make all those that were short to lose money on their bets. Earnings and sales were not double this quarter of what they were last quarter. I am calling BS on these gains over this last week.

This market needs a huge correction but the question is if the invisible hand with all the cash on hand from the stimulus package will allow market to drop. The other question is that if people sell where else would they put their money in? So who would sell??
  • #114
  • Jun 22, 2014 4:33pm Jun 22, 2014 4:33pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Yeah, but before we drop we could easily go to 2000-2100 the SPX500 and DAX possible to 11,000 This last Friday when options expired many many people lost a shi* load of money as when options expired they had pretty much gained at one point over double what they ended last quarter with gains or in other words the gains for this quarter were what they were of last quarter and the quarter before. At one point the SPX500 hit 1970 which is 70 points in gains at its highs. The last 2 quarters the SPX500 had gained roughly 30 points each quarter...
The reason for the mad rally is still the amount of money being printed by the Fed each month. QE injected 85 billion USD into the banking system after the subprime mortgage crisis when one of the biggest banks went bust, causing other banks to stop lending money to eachother, which in turn meant the liquidity was gone practically overnight.

While I am also very sceptical of the futher rise in SPX and cautious with any shorts I open, until the Fed winds down the monthly bond purchases there's no real reason for major pullbacks. The only thing that could drag it down is if we get a risk off day because of Middle East instability. I was actually expecting the drop last week, considering events in Iraq again adding to the headlines of Ukraine and Russia conflict. But it seems that the FED minutes completely overshadowed this and equity markets once again rose on Yellen's dovish speech. She is an extreme dove and this generally has a very positive effect on equity markets.

Beginning of this year, there was some worry about US recovery when NFP numbers came out much worse than expected, however this has now been proven as the after-effect of very bad weather. Equities are now all chipper after a string of good numbers, proving US economy is actually in much better shape and in pretty stable recovery mode, which is the reason why FED keeps tapering every month.

Right now, there's still no sign of US equities slowing down and with summer volumes kicking in, there's increased risk of volatility because all the moves are easily exaggerated in thin volumes. Investors have started to see SPX as a safe-haven, a risk-free environment.

I have set a few points where I would like to join the long equity index - 1938/39, followed by 1905/00 and finally 1880 stretching all the way to 1865 as my zone of interest.

Thanks for the very intelligent post, I highly appreciate discussions we're having here! Happy trading this week
  • #115
  • Jun 23, 2014 2:37am Jun 23, 2014 2:37am
took a uk100 long @6790 while a spx500 short @1961 to hudge,
i suppose the cash flow from euro-zone could push the stock price much higher.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #116
  • Jun 23, 2014 4:39am Jun 23, 2014 4:39am
DAX fell back into Daily demand again, scary scary

But I'm sticking to my long from 9876 for a 10150 target. I can wait.
Attached Image
  • #117
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:31am Jun 23, 2014 8:31am
Quoting doggette
DAX fell back into Daily demand again, scary scary But I'm sticking to my long from 9876 for a 10150 target. I can wait. {image}
Working so far...
  • #118
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:39am Jun 23, 2014 8:39am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Working so far...
I am a medium-term bull on DAX as well but in the short-term, don't you think that a correction is deemed, may be to 9790 level or even a bit below before we do a run up again.
  • #119
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:33am Jun 23, 2014 11:33am
I am still Long Term Bear on DAX.. TP @9610 if it crosses 9875

and tomorrow's OP @9954
contact me for a managed account
  • #120
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:50am Jun 23, 2014 11:50am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Today situation in Iraq is in focus. Usually on days where tensions in the Middle East are flying, equities fall and risk assets rise. As for DAX long-term being bearish - you've got to be kidding, right? With ECB preparing QE and DAX basically making all time highs about two days ago I really can't see any long-term trend being bearish. Although maybe I should ask - what time frame do you consider long-term trend? One week? One month? 3 months? 6 months? If you're talking about weekly as a long term trend - I would agree that a pull-back...
High oil price and less certain global security with QE in EU and US, I think we are going down actually. Expect the war to be global if ISIS manages to capture Baghdad, because they want to capture Iran, Gulf Countries and Israel, too.

Once US is busy with Iraq, Russia would like to assert again her power in Ukraine.

And China with Vietnam.

Many new borders will be created.

That is the riskiest outcome for this year.
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