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SPX and DAX - CFDs are the place to be

  • #81
  • Jun 19, 2014 5:33am Jun 19, 2014 5:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} it's hard to break such a long aggressive trend, don't know when it breaks but do know I certainly won't have a long position when it does. SPX500 M1: {image}
agreed... I think selling will be aggressive when it goes..in the mean time though the large flow is up..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #82
  • Jun 19, 2014 5:39am Jun 19, 2014 5:39am
Quoting j4d
{quote} agreed... Selling will be aggressive when it goes.. in the mean time though the large flow is up..
take care, a correction towards 1800 would still not break but hard to digest with large flow arguments
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #83
  • Jun 19, 2014 5:47am Jun 19, 2014 5:47am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} take care, a correction towards 1800 would still not break but hard to digest with large flow arguments
Thanks Bear...any buying at 1940's would be intra...longer term holding set ups would be 184x
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #84
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:08pm Jun 19, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Thanks mate. This thread was long overdue. Hope you get good support. I think the commodities are capable of higher highs yet, but a major retrace is overdue before the final push up. Let's see if the pain in the ass FOMC drives them down for a retrace or just sets them on up n up.
It looks like up and up for now lol. On a more serious note, I do think that the taper will eventually have a pullback effect on SPX.
  • #85
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:16pm Jun 19, 2014 1:16pm
Well its certainly not a time to go long here in SPX.

I had 1938 for first long, didn't play because of FOMC, now that one has been played already (it was a weekly pivot point).

The next stop in my analysis is 1925 (larger timeframe demand) followed by 1900 (Monthly pivot) and finally 1880 for the near future.

I am turning into a countertrend drop-catching trader in SPX but I'm seriously not comfortable longing it anymore. Diminishing volumes while still making higher highs almost every day are making me squirm. And yes its summer, so choppiness is to be expected. Everytime Yellen speaks stocks go up - is she really that charismatic?

Investors obviously find Granny Yellen hot
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  • #86
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:05am Jun 20, 2014 3:05am
Quoting doggette
Well its certainly not a time to go long here in SPX. I had 1938 for first long, didn't play because of FOMC, now that one has been played already (it was a weekly pivot point). The next stop in my analysis is 1925 (larger timeframe demand) followed by 1900 (Monthly pivot) and finally 1880 for the near future. I am turning into a countertrend drop-catching trader in SPX but I'm seriously not comfortable longing it anymore. Diminishing volumes while still making higher highs almost every day are making me squirm. And yes its summer, so choppiness...
The first person I thought about was Donald Trump.. maybe he is really an alien
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #87
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:20am Jun 20, 2014 3:20am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} The first person I thought about was Donald Trump.. maybe he is really an alien
Hahaha maybe that's why there's a family resemblance
  • #88
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:22am Jun 20, 2014 3:22am
Why is it not a good spot to go long? Because your chart says you are at the very top? We going for 2K baby!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #89
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:48am Jun 20, 2014 4:48am
With average POMO deliveries of 7-8 billion a week sure I think Yellen ooozes sex apeal..I'd prefer to let Spooz tell us when it wants to sell
but for the moment Im happy buying small clips on the way up.

Good trading to all..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #90
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:50am Jun 20, 2014 4:50am
Quoting Rtm
Why is it not a good spot to go long? Because your chart says you are at the very top? We going for 2K baby!
Because it is the top and the volumes are greatly reduced. There's not enough momentum to take it to 2000. Going long here is not a high probability trade and typically a good trader never longs into tops or resistances.

EDIT: j4d has the right idea here guys, if you're gonna go long, buy intraday pullbacks for small cash.
  • #91
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:51am Jun 20, 2014 4:51am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Because it is the top and the volumes are greatly reduced. There's not enough momentum to take it to 2000. Going long here is not a high probability trade and typically a good trader never longs into tops or resistances.
Okay if you say so! Just went long 10 contracts
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #92
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:57am Jun 20, 2014 4:57am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Okay if you say so! Just went long 10 contracts
I'm long DAX from 9876 for a medium term target of 10150, much better bet with ECBs QE looming.

And not to sound like a parrot, but the reason for spx rally was the Feds QE program which they are now tapering each month. So there's not going to be endless amounts of dosh in the US markets anymore.

Looking at the futures market, spx has yet to reach the high of June 9th, but good luck, hope your trade works out.
  • #93
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:02am Jun 20, 2014 5:02am
Quoting doggette
{quote} I'm long DAX from 9876 for a medium term target of 10150, much better bet with ECBs QE looming. And not to sound like a parrot, but the reason for spx rally was the Feds QE program which they are now tapering each month. So there's not going to be endless amounts of dosh in the US markets anymore. Looking at the futures market, spx has yet to reach the high of June 9th, but good luck, hope your trade works out.
We are doing the same thing essentially. The FED hasnt really changed much of what they are doing nor should it effect much the course of the indices. They are rising because we on a low interest rate buzz and until the next planned hike (2015) doesn't look like we going to crash anytime soon.

SPX has breached that high, not sure which chart you are referring too
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #94
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:11am Jun 20, 2014 5:11am
DAX view: new demand created at 10004, I'm setting a limit order there with a stop at 9980 for a scale-in trade on the way up to 10150, which is just under 10159 (161.8% Fib extension from previous swing down).

10004 is also very close to a round number, it should act as a psych support.
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  • #95
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:30am Jun 20, 2014 5:30am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} We are doing the same thing essentially. The FED hasnt really changed much of what they are doing nor should it effect much the course of the indices. They are rising because we on a low interest rate buzz and until the next planned hike (2015) doesn't look like we going to crash anytime soon. SPX has breached that high, not sure which chart you are referring too {image}
I'm referring to the futures chart... You know - the other market that exists apart from the cash market.

So here's what I have on the futures chart, spx has not yet breached a high in the futures.
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  • #96
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:32am Jun 20, 2014 5:32am
nice thread doggette ! hey, was wondering what you look at from a fundamentals standpoint when doing your analysis on crude. i too trade crude and look at crude inventories and general mkt. news for basic fundamental direction. what do you look at ?
  • #97
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:34am Jun 20, 2014 5:34am
Quoting doggette
{quote} I'm referring to the futures chart... You know - the other market that exists apart from the cash market. So here's what I have on the futures chart, spx has not yet breached a high in the futures. {image}
TY for this
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #98
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:34am Jun 20, 2014 5:34am
Quoting doggette
{quote} I'm long DAX from 9876 for a medium term target of 10150, much better bet with ECBs QE looming. And not to sound like a parrot, but the reason for spx rally was the Feds QE program which they are now tapering each month. So there's not going to be endless amounts of dosh in the US markets anymore. Looking at the futures market, spx has yet to reach the high of June 9th, but good luck, hope your trade works out.
Yes I am with you on it, DAX should cross 10100 soon enough. I am waiting for tomorrow when my new contract date starts. Would you mind me asking when does your contract for DAX renew/expire ?

Had a very nice up-ride on Gold (XAU/USD) yesterday, closed all Gold long now and waiting for it to cool down a bit.
  • #99
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:45am Jun 20, 2014 5:45am
Quoting tripr
nice thread doggette ! hey, was wondering what you look at from a fundamentals standpoint when doing your analysis on crude. i too trade crude and look at crude inventories and general mkt. news for basic fundamental direction. what do you look at ?
Hi tripr, thanks and welcome to the thread!

I find crude is mostly very technical and it generally follows supply/demand and tops/bottoms perfectly on larger timeframes (4 hours and daily).

Fundamentally, I only look for instability in the Middle East, on days when the news of conflict first breaks. Those are great days to long crude and let it run all day.

Time-wise I generally open new positions after Nymex opens as the volumes tend to be low on most days before Nymex bell. I then usually keep those positions for a couple of days at a time, aiming for targets around 200-250 ticks.

I use monthly and weekly pivots as targets when those pivots are "in the way" to my opposing supply/demand zone. I don't use them for entries unless they align with H4 or Daily supply/demand. So there has to be a price action confluence for pivots to matter as entries, otherwise I find them awfully inaccurate. I mostly try to look for zones that are pullbacks into solid moves then going in with the primary trend direction, unless Daily chart prints a reversal candle.

Typically I avoid trading crude oil inventories report days, because of the greater volatility. I don't like getting chopped up in news-releases. If I do trade on those days, I will wait for 30-40 minutes for the dust to settle before finding areas of interest. This can be applied to any asset.
  • #100
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:46am Jun 20, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} TY for this
No worries, happy to oblige
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