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  • #461
  • Jun 19, 2014 8:46am Jun 19, 2014 8:46am
I meant on H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry-h1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 77 KB



Possible H/S formation.
  • #462
  • Edited 10:46pm Jun 19, 2014 9:30am | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear Islander, I want to be fair for Saxo bank. I worked with them as a client of trading services and trading platform for eighteen months and I was introduced by friends working with them for much longer. The Saxo London team (main office) with whom I worked daily, have various people of very good quality and it is just in May that I had asked London a specific question on Zar and they send me to Paris staff because there was a guy who had worked recently on the currency . He was young and he was favoring the trend strategy and true, there was...

Mine was a general comment, especially for the less experienced traders, more of whom seem to be posting here in the somewhat mistaken idea that regurgitared opinons or unsubstantiated predictions are of some interest to the hard core of posters and followers. Your CV puts you way above that

PS another limit order around the lows got filled and again I banked ~the DP as I wasn't following the action and this time price went to the next (fib) level....on checking I see that the lower two day PVP level is now showing greater activity than the level ~yesterday's highs....confirming the activity that I suggested earlier....aka accumulation....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #463
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:48am Jun 19, 2014 9:48am
Quoting MigMad
I meant on H1 {image} Possible H/S formation.
But not yet IMO very probable......firstly, your candle had not even closed when you posted and when it did it was as a wide ranged, high (tick) volumed green marubozo which broke-out above the intra day highs. To become a bearish pattern this now needs to form a bearish harami. However, we now are at the close of the European session, so IF the US traders decide to continue their lunch and the volumes drop off, any further action will be meaningless until Europe opens tomorrow......secondly, in a 4 hour uptrend, why not wait until nearer the left shoulder.....and thirdy do you know IF this pattern is reliable in this contract....

Oh, and please don't talk about the swop......fine if you are trading 5 or 10 standard lots......in a down trend....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #464
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:25am Jun 19, 2014 10:25am
Quoting joyfultrader
Scotty I replied to your personal mail. I hope you received it.
So far I have not received it. No personal messages here on FF and nothing in my inbox. I'll check later and see if it has showed up.
  • #465
  • Edited 11:24am Jun 19, 2014 10:31am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting Islander
I too have been trading this morning's range - only long - and as its in a narrow range, both price and timewise - I also look at the 1 min chart - this one having one of my older setups for GA research - more work in progress....but it does help clarify the PA Viewing the 15m with market profile and a 2 day look back, we have a growing PVP peak in the 2.1265 / 75 area which confirms the increasing activity - probably buying......TWT PS I am thinking that the US traders will want some of the action in this range and thus we need patience before...
Another good day out there, Sir. The data releases have knocked me out of the market a few times in the last couple weeks. Today worked in my favor. I'm hoping we'll see more buying tomorrow. We are still on track towards 2.20.
  • #466
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:41pm Jun 19, 2014 1:41pm
Coming back from a meeting, I found Zar at 10,75 and TYR at 2,1445! Beautiful and unexpected gift so soon! So the nighmare of last night is behind now awaiting positive results for tomorrow. I think these figures confirm that tomorrow will be a goos day as Scotty stated
  • #467
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:49pm Jun 19, 2014 1:49pm
Scotty,
  • #468
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:50pm Jun 19, 2014 1:50pm
Scotty, I just wrote another message to reply your mail. I hipe this time you will receive it
  • #469
  • Jun 19, 2014 4:48pm Jun 19, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting joyfultrader
Scotty, I just wrote another message to reply your mail. I hipe this time you will receive it
Looked again and nothing. How exactly are you sending me messages?
  • #470
  • Edited 11:33pm Jun 19, 2014 9:19pm | Edited 11:33pm
Holding longs today, no big news out of the US. I'm hoping we can make some ground to the upside. Tuesday is quickly approaching, if you've been reading the news out of Turkey then you know Basci has been hinting at further rate cuts. Many analysts are thinking we'll see a cut of .25-.75 %. I will not be surprised to see him cut a full percentage point or more as he bows to Erdogan, responds to slowing economic growth and easing in the EU. There are many reasons for cutting rates as opposed to holding them steady. The market knows this is coming and in my opinion will continue shorting the Lira.

For day trading I'd target 2.1630. TWT.
  • #471
  • Edited 11:18pm Jun 19, 2014 11:02pm | Edited 11:18pm
Quoting Scotty B
Holding longs today, no big new out of the US. I'm hoping we can make some ground to the upside. Tuesday is quickly approaching, if you've been reading the news out of Turkey then you know Basci has been hinting at further rate cuts. Many analysts are thinking we'll see a cut of .25-.75 %. I will not be surprised to see him cut a full percentage point or more as he bows to Erdogan, responds to slowing economic growth and easing in the EU. There are many reasons for cutting rates as opposed to holding them steady. The market knows this is coming...

GM - all noted and I too see that ID target - with the current 5 / 10 ADRs ~240 pips its certainly within normal range......TWT. Now to see where I can re-board this north bound express....a test of the overnight lows would be appreciated....

PS Its quadruple witching in the US today, so that may bring some action in the US session.....

PSS spreads now ~ 50 pips, so the morning's fun begins....@ Revoli - about half that with your guys
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #472
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:10am Jun 20, 2014 12:10am
I'm watching 2.1376 for a bounce. Should hold it but you never know. We may see profit taking as Tuesday approaches.
  • #473
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:15am Jun 20, 2014 12:15am
This has the potential for more chop before up. Bound to as I have taken a long or two via in market ordes to try to catch spikes. The last hour candle is not ideal, the fail above 2.1450 is a bit of a worry. If we take yesterday mornings gyrations as position building then hopefully we will see a concerted effort to break the 2.1533 resistance...

footnote - my entry yesterday was superb. My exit was pitiful leaving far too much behind. Hey ho.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #474
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:44am Jun 20, 2014 12:44am
As I continue to watch the PA this is looking more and more like a profit taking day. If the bears run the show today I will not be surprised to see 2.13. If this is not real selling then we may be sweeping for stops, hard to say though with the bearish pin that occurred in an informative hour.
  • #475
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:11am Jun 20, 2014 1:11am
Dear all,
I was a bit surprised yesterday night to watch the upside of gold: 50 dollars in one day! Some comments were attributing this to Fed Dovish statement which I could not believe. This morning the EU colleagues informed me that the Pro-Russian in Ukraine have rejected the cease fire and restarted the fighting (nothing new/already on TV) but then the Russian army has been clearly watched by NATO Awacs and regrouping this time on the northeastern border of Ukraine! Poutine appears pressed by his people to move on Ukraine: 80%of the Russian population wants the Russian population of Ukraine to rejoin USSR… The EU in coordination with Obama adm. has already been convened and new sanctions would be quickly enforced if Poutine is not taking out his military forces. Thus the Ukraine conflict is going again in high tension and risks! Furthermore the UNO human watch has indicated that the situation in Russian part of Ukraine is becoming critical in terms of food (Blocus and no revenues) and medical care. Finally, OSCE is underlining that the region is totally in hands of people having no respect for any laws (torture and executions continuing) That does justify a rise in gold because the risks are getting much stronger. If one adds the topo of yesterday on Iraq with no real support and assistance there before at least another ten days (mission of Kerry)…. I really doubt that Lira will not continue to devaluate!

Scotty I just resent a third time the message through the special box with your message and I have a “message successfully sent” I do not understand why it is not working?

I believe we have to wait maybe the afternoon to see the currencies going up again. ...
  • #476
  • Jun 20, 2014 11:09am Jun 20, 2014 11:09am
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear all, I was a bit surprised yesterday night to watch the upside of gold: 50 dollars in one day! Some comments were attributing this to Fed Dovish statement which I could not believe. This morning the EU colleagues informed me that the Pro-Russian in Ukraine have rejected the cease fire and restarted the fighting (nothing new/already on TV) but then the Russian army has been clearly watched by NATO Awacs and regrouping this time on the northeastern border of Ukraine! Poutine appears pressed by his people to move on Ukraine: 80%of the Russian...
Finally got your note, thanks for that!

looks like we will end the last trading day of the week roughly where we started. Next week will be interesting with a rate announcement on Tuesday. Have a good weekend everyone.
  • #477
  • Jun 21, 2014 6:33am Jun 21, 2014 6:33am
where can i find the news for TRY ???
  • #478
  • Jun 22, 2014 2:03pm Jun 22, 2014 2:03pm
Dear all, The situation in Iraq is continuing to deteriorate and the rebels are now controlling most of the north and the passages to Syria. The government Maliki is contested not only by the G7 but also now by a growing part of the local chiite authorities. Let’s see what the Kerry mission will bring but the position of Turkey is becalming every days more and more difficult and solutions will not materialize before a long time… Ukraine has not seen evolution since Thursday But the hope of an acceptance of a cease fire by the pro-Russian is slowly increasing but not yet materialized by far…!

On the market, the decline of the US index was not really corrected on Friday and the Vix went further down../. For the ZAR, the decline was typical of a Friday with the central bank trying to reevaluate for the week-end taking advantage of low volume… For the Tyr, I was a bit disappointed that the 2,1450 did not hold but I agree with Scotty that the trend is definitely north for the coming week
  • #479
  • Edited 8:46pm Jun 22, 2014 4:51pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear all, The situation in Iraq is continuing to deteriorate and the rebels are now controlling most of the north and the passages to Syria. The government Maliki is contested not only by the G7 but also now by a growing part of the local chiite authorities. Let’s see what the Kerry mission will bring but the position of Turkey is becalming every days more and more difficult and solutions will not materialize before a long time… Ukraine has not seen evolution since Thursday But the hope of an acceptance of a cease fire by the pro-Russian is slowly...
Thanks for the update, I've been following the Iraq story over the weekend also. The US is sending 300 "advisers." If the situation in Iraq was going to be helped it would take muscle and fire power not American's there telling the Iraqis what to do. I get the sense that this will not be stopped. The Iraq situation in the context of the trade is only going to affect export growth and inflation, this is what the logical investor would be trading against. I don't know what the consequences of a new state or territory in the region will be. Short of them pushing into Turkey, I see trouble with oil as this commodity is a common export out of Turkey.

This week will be dominated by the rate decision on Tuesday. The possibility exists for a change in the trend. If Basci holds rates steady the Lira will rapidly appreciate. I'm thinking this could happen due to the situation in Iraq. Basci played with rates last month so that the Lira would quit strengthening--then ISIS comes on the scene. Basci might not need to lower rates to keep the Lira weak. However, lowering rates would ensure the Lira does not strengthen as the situation in Iraq is unpredictable and may improve. I think Basci will go ahead and lower rates, he could very well shock the markets--he is good at this. A weak Lira is going to be an asset to Turkey through the end of the year, just be ready in the event Basci holds steady.
  • #480
  • Jun 23, 2014 1:27am Jun 23, 2014 1:27am
Dear Scotty,
My colleague within EU are saying that the double talk between Poutine an Lavrov might be typical double talk with Russians but they now feel that it could also reflect a feud within the kremlin since Poutine sees to many shortcomings in the intervention while the hawks are fighting to get an intervention! Thus the game is becoming very delicate following their views. It does not help Turkey
As far as Iraq is concerned, the shut up of the pipeline from Iraq to Turkey plus all the high tension on which you agree cannot generate a reevaluation of the lyra nor create new movements of funds in favor of Turkey! Everybody realize that the situation will continue to deteriorate before it can soothe back The question today is how far will it deteriorate???
The strong value of the Zar this morning may reflect this trend of funds towards SA?
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