USD/TRY

2.1212 could prove to be an interesting support. We'll see.

There has been a lot of volatility around after FOMC: that is for sure
ZAR Between 10,76 and 10,64 This was expected but not so far and I bought at 10,68
Tyr between 2,1420 and 2,1225, that is /-200 bips! I did not expected that much and not quasi all on the decline. Now the market is drying up with margin between bids and asks widening strongly. Chunks arte attempted to be dealt with but not enough liquidity to absorb it quickly thus margin widening
I bought again at the 2,1300 (with RIS positive and MACD positive) but then it started to decline again…! I bought because the fundamental position is a must of devaluation for the lira with the Mosul refinery about to fall in the hands of rebels and even, if not, with damages requiring months of repairs, jeopardizing supply (and revenue of transit) or Turkey This decline is of the same vein than the one on employment data on the fifth of June! Probably due to transfer of funds to high rate Turkey after dovish statement of FOMC! The next days, the lira came back strongly up to 2,15. At present the quote is back to close my entry and RIS plus MACD positive; thus I am going to bed. We will see tomorrow morning what the night will have brought
In Ukraine, there is a one sided offer by Ukrainian president for a cease fire to begin negotiations on a local basis but its validity is limited to a few days and it is doubtful that the Pro Russian will accept it now with Russia continuing to help the pro-Russian…

i think usd/try is at a crucial spot at this moment but I also think that we'll be seeing it up past 2.15 by the end of this month.

There is a real danger in believing your own hype. For the first time in a while I had a negative day yesterday simply because I broke my own rules trying to outsmart the market. This is a cardinal sin. Particularly annoying given that I had correctly identified the overhead resistance point and enterred a short in Frankie's Hour. I then switched to a long later. There was no evidence that this pair had turn at any point yesterday. Here's my 5 min chart (which is my preferred arbiter) but if you look at any timeframe below D1 there is nothing to show a turn. Lesson for the day is obvious. You can pontificate all you like about what you think the market is going to do but at the end of the day WAIT UNTIL THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PRICE ACTION. What a twerp I am.



For the record this morning is showing mixed signals. I will wait.

Agreed and not only ,cause of the fib.....I also have a 4 hr S&R level there and a market profile PVP, so a good confluence which adds credence to that level. It was only hit in one 1 min candle and later at the lows in the thin volumes overnight the spreads were 20 to 50 pips, so not worth trading.

Lets see what LO brings.....I took an initial partial buy before FO off the close/open / **50 SS....

....against the Three Dragons too....tut tut......as I was busy doing sea trials I didn't face any temptations, but I can see why the 2.1425 area would have been tempting....

Rivoli is not the only one caught by the reaction of the market…. And so far the signals are mixed but the values of the night are holding, for what it is worth…! I will certainly not pretend I can catch the min and the top on any transaction...

In Iraq, forgot to mention that the rebels are gaining ground on all front except close to Bagdad where they have been pushed out. They also have 70 Turkish hostages (including civil servants of the consulate) and they also detain 40 Indian hostages…! So far it is unknown how the negotiations are evolving between Turkey and the rebels. More and more the people are confirming killing of prisoners and civilians in quantity but numbers will not be known before the territory is regained. Refugees are now by many hundreds of thousands in Kurdistan, Bagdad, Turkey and Lebanon. Not a major situation to experience a serious reevaluation of the lira….!
The stock market opened this morning 2,2% up. It shouldn’t help for the morning devaluation! Brent and WTI up also. At writing, Tyr is at 2,1290

First set up today for me is a long.... T is a test of the pivot.

I hope everyone is having a good day out there. As most of you probably know, this is an initial claims US data release day. If this news is bad for the Dollar we'll see more downward pressure, maybe down to 2.12. If the news shows strength in the US economy we may have the fuel we need to get back up to 2.1415 which is what I'm targeting. TWT.

the graph is about one hour dollar index...

according to this graph i think there are good possibilities for being long this pair today....

I am not participate to long positions due to swap but i wish good luck to all

Venceremos

When I look at the chart in 1 minute, it appears that the lira fluctuate now between set values 99/45; on one hand, the people willing to invest in Turkey define a value to buy the lira so as to obtain reasonable value for their large amount while defining minimum value to stop the transactions and then the market push back again to the high level of the range where the purchase of the lira can take place again. They do not want to purchase to high so as to avoid being penalized on the return knowing that the lira will devalue in the medium term. And their transactions there is schedule for a year max! To generate 2,5% at the opening of the stock market, it means that the volume of new orders were significant thereby explaining partially the reevaluation of the lira yesterday. It could continue today with a certain volatility but I do not expect that the lira will go lower than the value defined by Scotty; 2,1212, if ever it goes so far down.

I am really amazed by the graphs of panamamike! Things looks much simpler when one looks at these graphs…!

Scotty I replied to your personal mail. I hope you received it.

As I had indicated before as a risk, the tensions now mounting between the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Bagdad government since the Kurds are unhappy about the way the government has handled the rebellion and their own protection and now they claim ownership of the oil coming from the fields located in their territory….

I too have been trading this morning's range - only long - and as its in a narrow range, both price and timewise - I also look at the 1 min chart - this one having one of my older setups for GA research - more work in progress....but it does help clarify the PA

Viewing the 15m with market profile and a 2 day look back, we have a growing PVP peak in the 2.1265 / 75 area which confirms the increasing activity - probably buying......TWT

PS I am thinking that the US traders will want some of the action in this range and thus we need patience before any larger move.....just IMO

PSS for any that use William Bauer's excellent Tick Volume Index - ignore its readings before LO - the ultra thin overnight action causes inaccurate readings....

Hi

For USD/ZAR the following is usefu providing an indication where the rate is heading to, "The rand now looks primed for a move back to the R10.5200 support level, provided it can crack the R10.64 floor of course," Standard Bank trader Warrick Butler said.

http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/Rand-hovers-near-8-day-high-20140619

:'( I am in deep trouble if it doesnt head back up...

The figures of employment and unemployment are out and since they are on target, they have not brought one inch of reaction on any currency
Thus I believe that the values on Zar and Tyr will remain very close to the present level for the rest of the day unless the US market has something to say specifically on these currencies, but I doubt somewhat
Luliloo is asking if the prediction of the gentlemen referred has any significance . In the market everything is always possible but the probability is that the Zar will go back up in the following days. I can only underline that, at the end of May, a trader of Saxo Bank Paris had posted on Saxo site a recommendation to sell the USD ZAR on the ground that the descending canal (or trend line) was clearly unexhausted and he was saying that 10,10 was a real possibility (it was 10,39 that day). Within 10 days the Zar was at 10,80! We have two contradictory forces: one is the fundamentals of SA which push the ZAR at devaluation and the import of foreign funding due to interest differential that pushes sometimes the ZAR to reevaluate. I am in ZAR at 10,69 (as indicated yesterday) and feel reasonably comfortable with this position. But probably, the real technicians of Scotty group will be better than me to comment on your question.

trader of Saxo Bank Paris had posted on Saxo site a recommendation to sell the USD ZAR

LOL - it sounds like they were short of liquidity for buying, so put out suggestion to sell - That's right up Traderathome's street - he's always banging on about the Robber Banks and Manipulating Market Makers......I view all such posts from banks, big funds etc as HIGHLY suspicious.....they have their own agenda and don't expect them to share it with us guys.....

Thank you for the good comment of Islander!
The value of the Zar and the Tyr are pretty stable after the excessive volatility of yesterday…! Over the last four hours, Zar has been contained between 10,66 and 10,64! Tyr has been contained between 2,1300 and 2,1250, which is, as indicated by Islander, a fairly contained volatility for that pair. I believe we are in for a few days simply because many factors are not favorable for us: the stock market which does not seem to correct, the Vix at minimum value, the dollar index down by 0,5% since yesterday… On the positive side, it is Friday tomorrow and some positions will have to be closed! But it is difficult to guess how this will affect these two pairs. Then the data continue to indicate that the US is progressing (three data today all really positive) Thus the investment bankers here are thinking that, next week, the dollar should go back up again.... Let's hope

Dear Islander,
I want to be fair for Saxo bank. I worked with them as a client of trading services and trading platform for eighteen months and I was introduced by friends working with them for much longer. The Saxo London team (main office) with whom I worked daily, have various people of very good quality and it is just in May that I had asked London a specific question on Zar and they send me to Paris staff because there was a guy who had worked recently on the currency . He was young and he was favoring the trend strategy and true, there was a strong downtrend on Zar for close to two months! It is just that trending is not enough and I came at the moment of the inversion! And I did not follow his recommendations but rather bought ZAR and was profitable on purchase.

Hi guys,

I recon a H/S is forming.



We shall see.

Regards