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  • #905,421
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:23am Jun 19, 2014 9:23am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} MKT from your lips to Gods ears , I'm gonna buy you a cold one if those 300 pips go to the downside in the next 2-3 weeks KaChing $-)
Logically, it shall behave like I said, but in practice .. who knows
But I am in with your bet ..
  • #905,422
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:38am Jun 19, 2014 9:38am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} At the moment Max I'm 5% on minus with 2 position and I've added a smaller 3rd one at 1.36150 after US data. I'm targeting 1.35940 first with extension to 1.35740
UPS! i aim for 3680 -3720 first ...
fokyou forexfactory
  • #905,423
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:38am Jun 19, 2014 9:38am
trading eurusd sucks A$$ Thanks to HFT
  • #905,424
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:40am Jun 19, 2014 9:40am
philly fed index unexpectedly jump to 17.8
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #905,425
  • Edited 11:02am Jun 19, 2014 9:41am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting Vachus
I'll add to my position at $1.35160
The only number i care about in this move, is $1.367 - once price manage it, the journey to $1.409 will be piece of cake ... but because it is that important, don't expect it to be an easy one! Many fake breaks to the upside / downside will be around it. Also, as this journey starts - i'm not planning to buy on any bullish candle.

Yesterday, and early June it was the first time - FOMC press conference, announced tapering by $10 Billion and the Dollar was sold. The same thing happened on the ECB press conference, when we had a bullish daily candle, on a rate cut and massive policies. So, to interpret markets believe the Feds resolve to deal with any issue will threaten the american economy, and will not stop till that happens.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #905,426
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:47am Jun 19, 2014 9:47am
a healthy H4 candle pending.. full of bull power
  • #905,427
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:48am Jun 19, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} The only number i care about in this move, is $1.367 - once price manage it, the journey to $1.409 will be piece of cake ... but because it is that important, don't expect it to be an easy one! Many fake breaks to the upside / downside will be around it. Also, as this journey starts - i'm not planning to buy on any bullish candle. Yesterday, and early June it was the first time - FOMC press conference, announced tapering by $10 Billion and the Dollar was sold. The same thing happened on the ECB press conference, when we had a bullish daily...

This is not correct Vacus the USD have been sold every time this year after FOMC meeting. Only once Yellen spoke abouth rate hike the USD increased.

NOK have declined furher today among most currencies og almost 2% and NOK/CHF 2,5% in addtion to yday 1 % and only in two days.
'
Crazy things are happening now CHF rising alot is it time for stockmarket correction niw
  • #905,428
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:54am Jun 19, 2014 9:54am
Quoting DNTme
{quote} UPS! i aim for 3680 -3720 first ...

Good luck mate , thats why forex will never die cause all the time we will have someone on the other end, personally I hope it touches your tps and after that goes to mine
  • #905,429
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:55am Jun 19, 2014 9:55am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} This is not correct Vacus the USD have been sold every time this year after FOMC meeting.
March 19 , 2014
December 18, 2014

FOMC has four press conference per year, these are the ones that move the markets. You can read a paper from DB on it:
http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-cont...FX-Daily65.pdf
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #905,430
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:06am Jun 19, 2014 10:06am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} March 19 , 2014 December 18, 2014 FOMC has four press conference per year, these are the ones that move the markets. You can read a paper from DB on it: http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-cont...FX-Daily65.pdf

The USD in contrast had a downward bias versus the EUR on press conference
days and otherwise showed no directional bias on non
-
press
conference
FOMC days.


Have a look to NOK today The levels we see today we have not seen for several months. It is crazy
  • #905,431
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:12am Jun 19, 2014 10:12am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} ... Yesterday, and early June it was the first time - FOMC press conference, announced tapering by $10 Billion and the Dollar was sold. ....
Value fall and rise on demand - many times on lack of it, time and place(level) plays crucial role as well i.e. many people see price falling from 1.40 as a brutal force of overwhelming bear(selling) - what if that price move was done on lack of demand???(buyers)
In case of your post its vice versa because who would like to buy dollar against euro after 500 pips drop?
swing it!
  • #905,432
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:15am Jun 19, 2014 10:15am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} The USD in contrast had a downward bias versus the EUR on press conference days and otherwise showed no directional bias on non - press conference FOMC days.
Okay, i didn't see that - you right, this is what DB says ... did you check the dates?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #905,433
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:21am Jun 19, 2014 10:21am
Vachus

I can see it has only been two this year. But we see the same situation when htere is a rate hike meeting with press conference afterwards.

Anyway it is the same result USD down.



Stilll a find this euro rally little strange as it was new rate signals up
  • #905,434
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:23am Jun 19, 2014 10:23am
Quoting e061578
hey guys, here's my analysis for today. Price is slowly moving up. I have drawn a line based on the 4 hour chart @1.3600. Here's my thought. Volatility from the news today will drive the price to my expected price point After price goes through 1.3600 and come back down through this point again I will sell with stop loss 30 pips above the high made. Looking to take profit @1.3535 or lower. My final expected TP will be weekly fib @ 1.3230 for a long term trade. Feast your eyes! {image}
Hey guys! UPDATE
the price broke 1.3600 and never came back down to trigger my sell order. So I went 2 candles higher to 1.3637, waited for the price to go through it and come back, and this time it triggered my order to sell. If you notice in the image it went and touched my 61.8 fibo for the week (red dash line) and was rejected 2 times with a third coming when this candle close. Stop loss was place just above that 1.3642 candle @1.3672... just 30 something pips on a 4 hr chart. Looking for 1.3547 as TP now, and maybe more depending how I see price action.
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  • #905,435
  • Jun 19, 2014 10:26am Jun 19, 2014 10:26am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Value fall and rise on demand - many times on lack of it, time and place(level) plays crucial role as well i.e. many people see price falling from 1.40 as a brutal force of overwhelming bear(selling) - what if that price move was done on lack of demand???(buyers) In case of your post its vice versa because who would like to buy dollar against euro after 500 pips drop?
Lack of demand, will crash the price in few seconds - you won't be able even to think about selling ... Check Gold, Sliver and Oil spikes when the circuits break! On the bold part, they were the ones selling into $1.36 break and continued to sell all the way $1.3507! There weren't any buyers left to cover their positions and cause all these plunges...

*who's selling now into $1.364 and $1.362 ?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #905,436
  • Edited 11:13am Jun 19, 2014 10:29am | Edited 11:13am
NOK/CHF 6,86 today is a scoop. 17june it was 6,65. June one year ago it was 5,90.

We have the worlds bigest pensions fond anf have no debt. The central bank is trying to weaken NOK. IN 2007 it was 4,65 at the strongest..

I have bougt today short CHF/NOK and will keep it for long.

It is something very wrong around us if this NOK ccontinius to decline. I seldom give advice but this is a good price



Re Vacus:

who's selling now into $1.364 and $1.362 ?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."

It is me
  • #905,437
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:15am Jun 19, 2014 11:15am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} 1.35485 will break, My target 1.36460
Missed by a few
Now Short @ 1.36329 TP 1.35744
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #905,438
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:26am Jun 19, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Lack of demand, will crash the price in few seconds - you won't be able even to think about selling ... Check Gold, Sliver and Oil spikes when the circuits break! On the bold part, they were the ones selling into $1.36 break and continued to sell all the way $1.3507! There weren't any buyers left to cover their positions and cause all these plunges... *who's selling now into $1.364 and $1.362 ?!
Yup, I agree with you as well Vachus. I detected a divergence on buying speed.. could see a real drop in price soon!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #905,439
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:36am Jun 19, 2014 11:36am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Vacus: who's selling now into $1.364 and $1.362 ?! "It's the Margin, Stupid." It is me
I bought $1.36170 , SL $1.36099 ( If the stop survives, i will be looking for fresh new highs tomorrow)
So, good luck
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #905,440
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:38am Jun 19, 2014 11:38am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Lack of demand, will crash the price in few seconds - you won't be able even to think about selling ... Check Gold, Sliver and Oil spikes when the circuits break! On the bold part, they were the ones selling into $1.36 break and continued to sell all the way $1.3507! There weren't any buyers left to cover their positions and cause all these plunges... *who's selling now into $1.364 and $1.362 ?!
I would never know that, I do not work in the City at a brokerage house handling orders from the clients,
In this micro example if I got offer at 1.3790 and there is nobody willing to buy, that price will plunge to 1.3789 where next offer is - this is what I meant and I wanted to point out important factor in real time price value as most people think it is always buy/sell factor.
Since I do not fully understand fundie side of NIRP in EZ how is forcing banks to lend money to broken, unemployed people in south bullish for euro?
swing it!
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