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  • #421
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:24pm Jun 17, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear Scotty, I have not received your personal email, the mail address of juniotrader last week. Gentlemen, I am once more amazed by all your sophisticated technical analysis of Lira movements. I can only but somewhat follow course with your guidance. Just for support, It is worth noting that the Turkish stock market opened 1,5 straight up this supporting a mild reevaluation of the lira Also worth noting that the Ukraine underground gas reserves accumulated will allow Ukraine to function until November at least!
Scroll to the top of the page and click on your username. Then, scroll down and be looking on the mid right side of the page and you'll see your private messages. You can send and receive these messages right here on Forex Factory.
  • #422
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:34pm Jun 17, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} Took partials on the break above the day's high - although the April high is now ~ = to today's ADR, I would expect a rest / pull back after +170 pips in well under an hour.... Edit: added back at the MR 1 level and now took off most at the retest of the high that has (so far) held.....time for some R&R
Good work today, Islander. I still think we'll see 2.1570, more like 2.1567. This beast has been doing late in the day moves, we'll see. For tomorrow I'm thinking a pull back to 2.1475 and then another move up, maybe 2.1620 (simple fib projection).
  • #423
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:02am Jun 18, 2014 1:02am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Good work today, Islander. I still think we'll see 2.1570, more like 2.1567. This beast has been doing late in the day moves, we'll see. For tomorrow I'm thinking a pull back to 2.1475 and then another move up, maybe 2.1620 (simple fib projection).
Scotty

Excellent work. Many thanks. Whilst providing excellent trading opportunities I am finding I have to wait until late in the day to make real returns although my new trading technique called hammock cat napping is improving immeasurably. Historically it looks to me like this pair would often move in the late Asian/early european session. Now we see large moves in the US session/ late London. That suggests to me speculators your side of the pond have a focus here whilst European currencies/ gold/ yen pairs sit in the doldrums. The trick is to keep focus on pairs that have a market imbalance and hence volatility. You are clearly disciplined in your research.

We are at an interesting point now with the previous 23rd April peak in the firing line a breach of which could get us up to the 38.2 fib from peak of 27th Jan or a bumping around until newsflow pushes things one way or another. Patience required again.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #424
  • Edited 3:10am Jun 18, 2014 1:08am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Good work today, Islander. I still think we'll see 2.1570, more like 2.1567. This beast has been doing late in the day moves, we'll see. For tomorrow I'm thinking a pull back to 2.1475 and then another move up, maybe 2.1620 (simple fib projection).
Thank you - I am working more on my ID projections - actually revisiting my old fib work that I did 5+ years back in my Naked thread - and thus holding my ID positions much longer in line with your suggested levels too

I now have an initial sell ~ the 1490 level, looking to pull back to the fibs of yesterday's range. Above your fib expansion we have the Feb low at 2.1700, so plenty of levels to work off, so let's see where the Big Dogs want to go today......

Edit: closed ~LO and reversed to an initial long at the 50 level, a confluence with fibs and todays DP.....

Edit2: closed at the retest of the Australasian highs.....I'm suspicious of this PA......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #425
  • Edited 2:09am Jun 18, 2014 1:52am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting revoli
{quote} Scotty Excellent work. Many thanks. Whilst providing excellent trading opportunities I am finding I have to wait until late in the day to make real returns although my new trading technique called hammock cat napping is improving immeasurably. Historically it looks to me like this pair would often move in the late Asian/early european session. Now we see large moves in the US session/ late London. That suggests to me speculators your side of the pond have a focus here whilst European currencies/ gold/ yen pairs sit in the doldrums....
LOL ....

FYI, for the European Session, during May, the average ranges for the morning were 121 pips and for the afternoon (from NYO / 12:00 gmt until 16:00 gmt) the average range was 96 pips which included the largest range of ~250 pips vs the morning's largest of ~180 pips.....
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #426
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:41am Jun 18, 2014 2:41am
The Turkish stock market opened in negative territory (_0,5%) The lira is fairly volatile now between 2,1495 and 2,1450. If it has to make an average fluctuation it would have to go to 2,1440 bid…

The Zar went yesterday to its highest point in three months. It stayed stable overnight and now! Anybody has an idea where it could go today. Yesterday again, one could have superposed the two daily charts (5 minutes) and found that the movements were absolutely symmetrical! What is the relationship between the two currencies.

No news significant on wars front
  • #427
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:15am Jun 18, 2014 3:15am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thank you - I am working more on my ID projections - actually revisiting my old fib work that I did 5+ years back in my Naked thread - and thus holding my ID positions much longer in line with your suggested levels too I now have an initial sell ~ the 1490 level, looking to pull back to the fibs of yesterday's range. Above your fib expansion we have the Feb low at 2.1700, so plenty of levels to work off, so let's see where the Big Dogs want to go today...... Edit: closed ~LO and reversed to an initial long at the 50 level, a confluence...
Yes, fibs can be helpful when you're in a zone without a lot of meaningful S/R. I don't know if the market will reach to the north again today, if it does I'm looking all the way up to 2.1650. Probably way too ambitious a target but we'll see. Right now we are at FIB support and I've added longs. Safety orders stacked below.
  • #428
  • Jun 18, 2014 9:59am Jun 18, 2014 9:59am
I have bought at 2,14 35 and 2,1410. Has anybody an idea where is it going and the impact of Yellen on the currency tonight?
  • #429
  • Jun 18, 2014 10:05am Jun 18, 2014 10:05am
Good luck.....hope it is tiny size with a huge stop or else u close it before FOMC. Spread will likely get as wide as 50-75 pips.....and huge initial volatility. With so many opportunities every day in TRY, I don't see the need to take on positions until maybe an hour after the announcement but even better tomorrow European session.
  • #430
  • Jun 18, 2014 11:12am Jun 18, 2014 11:12am
Hi guys,

does this scene make any sense to any of you?

Could it be possible that pair will move up to 68 Fibo and then all the way down to 161.8 Fibo? Is it really crazy?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry-w1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 72 KB


On weekly you can see a great divergence on minimums with MACD.

Here, on the daily, a closer look.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry-d1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 73 KB


Is it really a crazy idea?

Regards

Miguel
  • #431
  • Jun 18, 2014 12:05pm Jun 18, 2014 12:05pm
If what ive mention above is correct... on this beautiful W we have on H4, next move will be bellow 2,05.... Crazy, no? But still 1 possibility

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry-h4-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 87 KB



Regards
  • #432
  • Jun 18, 2014 12:27pm Jun 18, 2014 12:27pm
And following and based on same line of thinking, probably next move could be on H1 up to 2,15 again, give or take and then rally down. MACD divergence signal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry-h1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 72 KB


Any sense?


Regards
  • #433
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:34pm Jun 18, 2014 1:34pm
Adding longs at what should prove to be wholesale, low rates in the US isn't really news in my opinion.
  • #434
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:52pm Jun 18, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting Scotty B
Adding longs at what should prove to be wholesale, low rates in the US isn't really news in my opinion.
i believe the sell off has more to do wit the lowered growth rates for the year than it does interest rates. That is where the deviation from expectations lies....not only that they lowered the growth forecast, but how much they lowered it. Just my .02
  • #435
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:56pm Jun 18, 2014 1:56pm
Wanted to also add that the idea in trading is to always be thinking ahead a few moves. We see that the market wants to strengthen to dollar over the Lira, Turkey is in trouble right now though. Given the reaction we are seeing, I see this only reinforcing a rate cut out of Turkey which will ultimately move this trade onward and upward. We are still trading in the value zone I mentioned a couple days ago.

Iraq is and will remain completely out of control. If the situation was going to be helped the window of time in which to intervene has long since passed. I think Obama will face much criticism for this. Again, it's a freight train thats roaring ahead--no signs of slowing whatsoever. This will absolutely affect Turkey.

Don't trade just because I said it, use stops and be careful!
  • #436
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:57pm Jun 18, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting MigMad
If what ive mention above is correct... on this beautiful W we have on H4, next move will be bellow 2,05.... Crazy, no? But still 1 possibility {image} Regards
That H4 resistance double top also matches a resistance zone on the daily.
  • #437
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:01pm Jun 18, 2014 2:01pm
I rather see 2.06 then up!
  • #438
  • Edited 2:27pm Jun 18, 2014 2:03pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting panamamike
{quote} i believe the sell off has more to do wit the lowered growth rates for the year than it does interest rates. That is where the deviation from expectations lies....not only that they lowered the growth forecast, but how much they lowered it. Just my .02
I agree this has no doubt generated some selling, but Turkey is the dominating factor here. Hedge funds and big banks want to stay in business, they'd have a very hard time defending a long edit**LIRA** position and the losses it'd cause to their investors. Anything could happen in the the Middle East right now and funneling client funds there for a great return is probably not a wise idea. Plus as I said, we have to read all this in perspective on what Turkey will do. The EU is easing right now, now this. I'll be surprised if Basci doesn't surprise markets with a sizable rate cut to keep flows out.
  • #439
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:08pm Jun 18, 2014 2:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-06-18 14_03_57-USDTRY,Daily.png Size: 22 KB


I think we will be able to buy the weekly pivot at least, if not the bottom of the wedge
  • #440
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:17pm Jun 18, 2014 2:17pm
Might be good time to buy....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: try.png Size: 120 KB
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