USD/JPY Discussion

Positive CPI has shoved it north. CPI will drive wage inflation.

Yes this pattern of ABCD is for short after completion
I don't think it's going to be big correction

Critical moment.....

103 please

USD
Housing Starts
MeasuresAnnualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
NotesWhile this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;

USD
CPI m\m
MeasuresChange in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;

USD
MessageBuilding Permits
MeasuresAnnualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
NotesWhile this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);

USD
Core CPI m\m
MeasuresChange in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;
NotesFood and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;

JPY
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Usual EffectMore hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Frequency11 times per year, 2 weeks after the Cash Rate is announced
NotesSource first released in Dec 2007;

JPY
Trade Balance
MeasuresDifference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 23 days after the month ends;
NotesA positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported;

USD
Current Account
MeasuresDifference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous month;
Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;
FrequencyReleased monthly, about 50 days after the month ends;
NotesThis is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. The goods portion has no impact because it's a duplicate of the Trade Balance data released about a week earlier;

USD
Crude Oil Inventories
MeasuresChange in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual EffectNo consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
FrequencyReleased weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
NotesWhile this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;

USD
FOMC Statement
Usual EffectMore hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FrequencyScheduled 8 times per year;
NotesThe FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on.

USD
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Usual EffectMore hawkish than expected = Good for currency
FrequencyScheduled 8 times per year, 3 weeks after the Federal Funds Rate is announced

6-17 to 6-18 just a glimpse of a lot of different news.

Looks like it might be headed for 103+

Think it's going to do anything before tomorrow?

I think the pair will climb to 102.48 or so and then get volitile. This lazy up one week and down the next has gotta stop. I don't think anybody is getting fooled anymore. We can't all win

I am willing to concede that it may also flat line instead of become volitile but either way if we get to 102.48 I become a spectator

Concerns over the Thailand political crisis, as signaled by BoJ's recent release of minutes, became fuel for UJ. A break of 102.30 can be followed by 102.40, 102.50 and 102.65. On the downside, 102.20 and 102 level become renewed supports.

If today doesnt get this air moving then I dont know what to say.

classic bearish abcd + fibo

i dont like stoch but i can live with that

short short short

Standard negative divergence

Short short short short

hahahah... 4 shorts for you against 3 of mine... i think we are quite persuasive

if we head down, I'll try longs at 101.95...

Hi PTL, did you get that 102.30 short you were talking about earlier?

got the long first, now short from 102.31




good to see you mate...

bastard!

I second that ... bastard

so tomorrow 102.2x again? if it was only that easy but who knows

I do believe it will go back to 102.2x+ again by tonight or tomorrow

ask PTL he knows