long term trading EUR/TRY for the swap

Hi, Im always on the lookout for a new way to trade and came across this idea earlier today, I am always open for suggestions or criticism so please let me know what you think.

Current swap value for going short on EUR/TRY offered by AlpariUK is +6.13 pips
Current value of the pair is 2.90883

10 year high = 3.19584
10 year low = 1.55579

So if i were to trade 0.01 lot on a micro account my pip value should be as follows (please correct me if im wrong)
1000 x 0.0001 = 0.1 TRY/2.90883 = 0.0343780833 EUR x 1.35643 (EUR/USD rate) = USD 0.0466/pip

therefore a swap value of $0.285/day

if i were to allow a 0.01 lot size per $200 balance at 500:1 leverage, then i would be secure for a 4292 pip movement (disregarding the initial margin)

over the last 10 years there has been a total of 16,400.5 pip movement, if i was to trade ONLY for the swap then i would have made 22,313.2 pips. i.e a profit of $275.72 at 0.01 lot. My current balance would probably be in the negative given that the value of EUR/TRY has risen significantly in the past 10 years so maybe now whilst its towards the upper side it may be a good entry point to not only profit from the swap but also the trade movement.
this is obviously a very small scale operation, but if its all calculated correctly then maybe ramped up abit could be quite a profitable system

Please comment or criticize

Looking forward to a responce

Happy trading guys

Hi

Good Thought

But EUR/TRY will increase 8 to 10% Per Annuam , you cannot catch with SWAP rate and at the end may be loss. Check last 5 year yearly raise it is more than 10% per annuam and it will continue ....

Thanks

I havent done the figures yet but another possibility is USD/CNH with a swap of 5.3 pips going short.
the chart has shown a decline over the past 10 years

any thoughts?

I did not check USD /CHN

SWAP is not fix it depends on intenrest rate in bot countries. Very soon in US interest rate is going to increase the SWAP will come down and these brokers reduce swap any time even no change in interest rate.

I was carring USD/INR Short from last one month daily $11.30 per lot from Oanda ,form last 3 days they have reduced to 7.8 even there is not change in interest rate of both countries.

But keep searching...........

Regards

Guys be VERY careful when focusing just on the swap with any Try pair......EurTry has a current daily range of ~360 pips and is at present in an uptrend on the 4 hr chart......

You should read some of the posts in Scotty's UsdTry thread for info of what's happening in that part of the world

Ran this on demo account for 2 days now, trade is sitting at +$7.44 with a swap of +$1.09
thinking i might sit on it for 6 months - 1 year and see what happens

You were right mkfx, they have already changed the swap down to +5.84 pips