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USD/TRY

  • #381
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:35am Jun 16, 2014 1:35am
haven't focused on this pair for quite a long time,
in my trade system,
around 2.1360 would be considered as a strong resistance area.
just a test for short with not so much confidence,
taking a target showed in the chart below.

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no other killers to me but emotion
  • #382
  • Jun 16, 2014 2:43am Jun 16, 2014 2:43am
Quoting joyfultrader
Scotty, Thanks for the interest in my past as well as my comments on the political situation After my studies in the US, I (Belgian) worked in Banking for 11 years (JP Morgan) (mainly in Europe), then 16 years in restructuring essentially SME in Europe and US and then 18 years as expert for the EU commission in Ukraine, Eastern Europe and Meda countries (countries from Turkey to Morocco) in private sector development. Last year, Istarted to work part time due to age (over 70!), and I decided to pay some interest in FX trading as I had managed a...
Thank you for sharing your background with us. Sounds like you've had a very interesting career. Your insights on the situation within Iraq are great. In all the news I've been reading I have come across several mentions of criticism of the Obama administration for creating a power vacuum for drawing down all the troops. Couple this with the number of Iraqi Army personnel that you mention being fired and the current situation really looks that much more dire. No wonder Iraq has an impotent security force. I just read that the US is moving embassy staff out of Baghdad, to me this is the writing on the wall. The US seems to be expecting this to inevitably get worse--and it will. As I mentioned in my last post Friday, it takes time to stop a speeding freight train and thats what we are dealing with.

As the crisis continues to deepen, the timetable for resolution is totally up in the air. Who knows when or how this will end. One thing we can know for sure regarding the Turkish economy, their projected export growth has taken a hard hit on two fronts: exports to Iraq will drastically fall off (Iraq accounts for 5.7% of total exports) and oil that is piped into Turkey and then exported will likely disappear. In my opinion, the Lira will only continue to weaken until the situation begins to stabilize. If Basci chooses to ratchet rates down this month we'll see even more depreciation pressure on the Lira. I'm holding my long positions, I am really confident we'll see at least 2.25 in the coming months.
  • #383
  • Jun 16, 2014 2:55am Jun 16, 2014 2:55am
One other thing I just wanted to throw out there is that we will here from the FED chair-woman this week. Many are expecting to hear news of further scaling back of QE, bond buying ect. Yellen will also hold a press conference regarding interest rate policy. This could REALLY help the trade if she brings the time horizon for this back. Nonetheless, it will be a very interesting week. I'm glad I adopted USDTRY as my official personal pair to trade, glad I started the thread. I didn't realize how wild things would get!

***EDIT***

Just wanted to mention that we are right back on track and following the original daily TL (rate of depreciation @ 25 pips/day). This could accelerate but I think this is still a decent benchmark.
  • #384
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:18am Jun 16, 2014 3:18am
Dear Scotty,

Thanks again for your kind comments

The lira is now at 2,1420 and still going up! I strongly believe that, in such circumstances, the technicalities cannot explain everything (M. Mao)! I bought at 5 GMT at 12,75 with the latest news that Bagdad airport had been bombed and US embassy in process of evacuation…

When dramatic mistakes have been made by the Bush administration for so long despite all advices from Europe (and others) on this subject, and lasted so long, I can assure you that the Obama administration had no other alternative that to attempt to get out of this mess. It is difficult to justify American soldiers causalities when you know that the probability to solve the problem is barely 10 or 20% and at what human costs? We have the same situation in Syria (and even worse) How choosing between the devil and the devil, not to mention the risk of a deflagration with Russia, very strong on holding its naval base in Syria? Plus the last intervention of Europe In Libya has also been a disaster in terms of helping better life for the people. Have we succeeded better in Mali??? The report on the mental health of soldiers coming back from Irak and Afghanistan is also enlighting the very important problem facing the US administration. At the time, the Obama administration was facing also the risk of a major problem with Iran… And Hillary Clinton, for once, was having a much better and realistic vision of the various foreign situations

I share totally your view that the export of turkey in Iraq will substantially decrease for some time and that the pipe line in Mosul will be closed probably shortly and for some time either; thus, it will not help the lira! Let’s not forget also the cost of the Turkish intervention which appears,at this stage somewhat inevitable. I do not know where it will be going but I would welcome your prediction; if verified, to have 2,25 in the summer

The stock market in Turkey went down 1,5 % at the opening: another indication that the country feels the risk undergoing
  • #385
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:38am Jun 16, 2014 3:38am
More interesting posts However, somewhat above my paygrade, so I continue to follow the PA on the lower TFs whilst importing important levels and information off the higher TFs.......I banked good pips from each of these three swings and will now take a break until the US session....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #386
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:55am Jun 16, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Islander
More interesting posts However, somewhat above my paygrade, so I continue to follow the PA on the lower TFs whilst importing important levels and information off the higher TFs.......I banked good pips from each of these three swings and will now take a break until the US session.... {image}
I knew you were out there bagging all those pips. Nice work. We'll see what the rest of the day brings. I'm off to bed, I'll talk to everyone later in the NY session.
  • #387
  • Edited 4:54am Jun 16, 2014 4:28am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} I knew you were out there bagging all those pips. Nice work. We'll see what the rest of the day brings. I'm off to bed, I'll talk to everyone later in the NY session.
Yes thanks, I was I keep plugging away, trading around The Levels and watching the PA.....next up is the April 23 high which would make today's range ~330 pips vs the 10 ADR of 220.....let's see what the US guys do.....I already have another initial long as price pulled back into my tried and tested Fibonacci Decision Zone which starts at that hourly S&R level....a real Caroline Boroden Synchronicity Trade.....

FYI, those green / pink S&R levels are updated on the open of each candle by a little indy that was made for me....I can post it anyone would like it....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #388
  • Jun 16, 2014 5:20am Jun 16, 2014 5:20am
Dear Islander,
I am amazed by the precision of your picking tops and bottom this morning! You must have a sophisticated program allowing you to pin point so fine tuned. But you last one did not work inasmuch as the tyr is back already at 2,1380
  • #389
  • Jun 16, 2014 5:27am Jun 16, 2014 5:27am
Beatiful bearish abcd+stoch

and please do not forget: SWAP is our friend

short @2,1397
first target @MA(20)

Venceremos
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #390
  • Jun 16, 2014 6:58am Jun 16, 2014 6:58am
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear Islander, I am amazed by the precision of your picking tops and bottom this morning! You must have a sophisticated program allowing you to pin point so fine tuned. But you last one did not work inasmuch as the tyr is back already at 2,1380
Thanks - please remember that I am posting the gross (Actual low to Actual high) of the swing or from bid entry level to the high etc. As I have said before deducting ~20 pips for slippage & spread gives a realistic profit target.

I have been out for a couple of hours and as I type, that partial position buy is in profit having been ~ +25 to ~ -40 during that time. Lets see what the NYO brings....

Edit: closed for a couple of pips after price turned back off the BRN....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #391
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:12am Jun 16, 2014 7:12am
Quoting spinozagr
Beatiful bearish abcd+stoch and please do not forget: SWAP is our friend short @2,1397 first target @MA(20) Venceremos {image}

could you post a zoomed out chart so that we can see where you have drawn your fibs and also the chart's TF......thanks
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #392
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:33am Jun 16, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Islander
{quote} could you post a zoomed out chart so that we can see where you have drawn your fibs and also the chart's TF......thanks
sorry mate...TF 1 hr

if you click on the chart i think you can see where is the fibo 23,6 in my chart...but i havent mentioned about fibo (in that case it would be of course a stronger pattern)...

Venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #393
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:39am Jun 16, 2014 7:39am
Spinozagr where is your TP?
  • #394
  • Edited 9:07am Jun 16, 2014 7:49am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} sorry mate...TF 1 hr if you click on the chart i think you can see where is the fibo 23,6 in my chart...but i havent mentioned about fibo (in that case it would be of course a stronger pattern)... Venceremos

Yes, thanks, but I was looking to see which high and which low you had used to draw your fibs......also, I guess you know how to automatically add the actual price to the fib levels.....

I too now have an initial short after price failed to break above the late morning's high ~2.1414....a minor S&R level on my 15m chart....I do hope that its not now going to dicker around in a 50 pip range.....

14:00 gmt Edit: well so far an 80 pip range down to the confluence of the 50% retrace, MR2 and the late morning low so I banked and am calling it a day.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #395
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:53am Jun 16, 2014 7:53am
Quoting xman111
Spinozagr where is your TP?
my target is the MA(20)... around 2,128
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #396
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:59am Jun 16, 2014 7:59am
Quoting Islander
{quote} I guess you know how to automatically add the actual price to the fib levels.....
i am just learning

Seriously,

the fib in my charts are automatically drawn... besides as i told you before... my particular trade is not based on any fibo level...

just the pattern

Good Luck
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #397
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:17pm Jun 16, 2014 12:17pm
Worth noting that US is now finalizing the negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear program in Vienna and if positive (which is expected) then they will see what they can do with Iran in Iraq

Regarding Ukraine, the blocage of gas cannot last long because it would mean blocking Europe which is something Russia cannot afford! It is just gesticulations to save face in the negotiations regarding the gas issue, the past debts and the new price (Europe is a mediator)

The Turkish stock market went down 5% today which is encouraging for the downside of the lira tomorrow! I sold today at 2,1425 But ZAR has not been very volatile today surprisingly but the VIX is slowly going up reflecting a more risk aversion attitude…
  • #398
  • Jun 16, 2014 4:55pm Jun 16, 2014 4:55pm
Alright guys, the direction is still absolutely and unblushingly bullish. Fundamentals are strongly against the Lira. We are sitting at a position technically where there are probably a lot of weak hands in the market. As the news in Iraq is somewhat slow to develop, we may see a repositioning come tomorrow. I think we'll flush the weak hands out. This is not something I'd get short on, I'd just watch to get long at better pricing. I'm eyeing an important zone from 2.1350 down to 2.1225. If we see the lesser of the two, price will very likely make a strong bullish pin bar. I will look to get back in at 2.13 though, lots of support there. TWT.
  • #399
  • Jun 16, 2014 5:01pm Jun 16, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting joyfultrader
Dear Scotty, Thanks again for your kind comments The lira is now at 2,1420 and still going up! I strongly believe that, in such circumstances, the technicalities cannot explain everything (M. Mao)! I bought at 5 GMT at 12,75 with the latest news that Bagdad airport had been bombed and US embassy in process of evacuation… When dramatic mistakes have been made by the Bush administration for so long despite all advices from Europe (and others) on this subject, and lasted so long, I can assure you that the Obama administration had no other alternative...
Keep the analysis coming, Sir. I sent you a private message unrelated to the markets but relating to Belgium and my family ancestry. Just for trivia's sake.
  • #400
  • Edited 1:55am Jun 17, 2014 1:28am | Edited 1:55am
GM - new high for this move in the Australasian session at 2.1468, so pulling a fib down to yesterday's low gives some potential retraces with some interesting synchronicity....I sold at the LH at 2.1450 ~FO.....

Edit: took partials of 50 pips ~ the close level and closed some more at the 38% level / S&R level.....next target is the 50% at 2.1335....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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