USD/TRY

Sold my bit from 2.1030 at 2.11 or so


Will go in for big size if we rush 2.12

You still buying? I'm looking for 2.136ish area. What are you projections?

Hopefully its quiet the rest of the day because i cant eat the three day rolls that go thru on thursdays lol.


Still think we can see 2.16 at some point soon.

Currently eyeing the bull flag on the hourly. As we don't have much more developments on the Iraq situation, the market may stall where it's at. If the situation is stoked further we could see more upside. The city in Mosul is so close to the border of Turkey. I don't see how this situation is not going to draw turkey into the conflict, especially with so many of their citizens being held hostage.

Data out of the US lately has been coming in under expectations. That doesn't help the trade. By and far though, the issues within Turkey and this new crisis will become the prevailing factors for FX rates.

I'm eyeing 2.15 as a possible upside target. For entry, I will be eyeing the 2.1050 area when london rolls around again.

Here are 2 charts. One is a map of Turkey, Syria and Iraq. I just wanted everyone to see this so that the proximity of the Crisis to Turkey is fully realized. I'll also post the bull flag.

maybe down, lets see.

Read that the hostages from Turkey will supposedly be released. This may help the Lira today. The trouble still remains that Iraq is one of Turkey's largest export locations. With Iraq being thrown into war, this will make a dent in Turkey's current account. I have limit orders stacked all the way down to 2.08 in the event we go back into range to end the week. Going to get into a longer term position from here.

What is your reasoning for a short, c3po? What are you targeting?

its a triple top that could not break the high, and a ton of sellers just came in this past wave. Looks down, but its just a guess.

How are you deciphering this?

Whilst I do see a potential triple / H&S on my 4 hr chart, the highest (tick) volumes yesterday were in the 12:00 GMT 4 hr & 14:00 GMT hrly as buyers came in at the 2.1000 level......this was also seen on the 15m chart with market profile showing considerably more activity ~those lows.....

Right now, half an hour after LO, price is again attacking the 2.1200 level, so we need to see how this hourly candle closes.....

PS I am holding longs.......

Edit: and I took partials when the small push above yesterday's high failed ........

I continue to hold and add to Tyr and happy to see Zar going up mildly.

Still puzzled by the correlation of timing in the two currencies.

Related to the excellent map of Scotty, The Baghdadi controlled area goes from west of Ar Raqqah (Syria) to 50 km east of Mosul This gives everybody an idea of the threat of Baghdadi to Turkey, Not forgetting the difficult relationship with Kurds at east of Mosul connected with the Turkish Kurdistan around DiarBakir

Forgot to mention that the stock market in turkey lost 2% at the opening...

Sold Zar at 10,775 I honestly do not know where ir is heading after that since there are talks of a truce in the mining strike
Has anybody a technical opinion about Tyr? This morning, it has been rather range bound between 2,1175 and 2,1225. Are you maintaining your favourable opinion towards 2,13 or 2,15.
Obama confirms at least intervention through aircraft and equipment. Iran is sending special forces to help.

Try went as high as 2,1300 and then down to 2,1240.
Volatility still strong and thus difficult to determeine what to do. Any suggestions?

Zar went as high as 10,8000 thus I sold reasonably and quote now 10,74 (I made .75 ZAR differential) going further down for typical Friday evening. Where will it go on Monday???

I sold tyr at 2,1225 (200 bips differential) with very volatile movements about 50-70 bips in very short timing both sides repeatedly during the whole day but the fundamental trend appeared to change in last three hours. I definitely missed 2,1300! This is life! Holds actually 2,1200. If the political situation remains tight on Monday morning, I intend to buy again early before it goes back up around 7.00 GMT as usual. I had hoped for some technical comments but I guess nobody was around. Whatever I learn on the Turkish front over the week end, I will report.

Sounds like you have a good grasp on the situation and an understanding of the region. Where are you trading from? I'm curious to see you doctor up a map. All I did was highlighted the troublesome border and Mosul.

The magnitude of the situation in Iraq will take time to settle upon the markets.

I've taken the following quote from Gursel's article in Today's Zaman:


I believe he is being extremely optimistic here. The big question here is how Turkey will get involved in the Iraqi crisis. Given the bold nature of the extremists, if they continue their advance and begin attaining some of the 15 billion military equipment and fire power, this could become a power struggle that Turkey cannot afford but to get involved in. I've read that the extremists already have a helicopter and personnel capable of flying it.

Funnel this all down to your institutional investor, determining where to send his clients funds. At which position on his list will Turkey be at this point? It was risky enough with the drama between Erdogan and Basci which has now been eclipsed by an emergency much more dire in it's consequences and implications.

Gursel has thrown out a .75% rate reduction prediction for this month's CBRT decision. He cites strong GDP growth in the 1st quarter and the policy easing being undertaken in Europe. I would not be surprised to see Basci hold rates steady for now given the problem looming on it's southern border. Then again, purposely weakening the Lira with a rate cut could increase exports to Germany and this could offset to some extent the business that will be lost to Iraq. The trouble is, Basci may not need a rate cut to weaken the Lira, but doing so would ensure it happens and would also benefit Erdogan.

From what I can find, the Turkish hostages have not been released as was suppose to have happened already. The extremists have personnel from the Turkish Consulate and dozens of truck drivers who haul oil.

Looking at the market, traders seem to be in a bit of denial. Everyone, including myself, is grappling with the timeframe. Will these extremist forces be put down quickly? Will the help from Iran and possible US airstrikes prove effective, what is the scale of this? I think we'll see better trending next week. The market may even gap up on Monday as the weekend could be quite interesting as Obama is moving a warship into the Gulf. Speaking of Obama, he was explicit in his unwillingness to put US troops on the ground in Iraq to help. This of course helps the dollar and hurts the Lira.

Have a good weekend everyone, God bless our brothers and sisters in the Middle East. Pray for peace.

Just doing my homework (reviewing Fridays trades and areas for improvement). It strikes me with this esoteric pair the use of entry orders in identified wath zones as per chart below would be a good strategy. Friday had an uptrend on the cards looking at both Scotty's excellent analysis and chart action on M5 and M15. Clear support in my watch zone with spikes down which I was too slow to grab. An entry order hanging down here may do the job. Anyone doing such a thing? Waiting for the price to cross Islanders three dragons (MAs to you) is probably leaving too much on the table.

Thoughts?

Watch the Yen and Euro QE crap. the USD, JPY, and EUR can be a nice foundation for some carry trades in the future. This maybe, along with USDZAR, in the process of forming a major top. I would not be buying USD in exotic pairs right now. just my opinion.

I agree that my Three Dragons are frequently too slow for catching UsdTry's fast ID moves and I have been starting to use Scotty's flag's - aka pull backs - on the 5m TF.....when prior S&R levels and daily pivots are added many of the ID turns are identified

The pips shown on this chart are gross, so I suggest allowing say 20 pips / entry for slippage and spreads, which sill shows some satisfactory potential ID profits....

I shorted near the end of Friday, it ended profitable and what I like is the rollover for this pair.

Scotty, Thanks for the interest in my past as well as my comments on the political situation

After my studies in the US, I (Belgian) worked in Banking for 11 years (JP Morgan) (mainly in Europe), then 16 years in restructuring essentially SME in Europe and US and then 18 years as expert for the EU commission in Ukraine, Eastern Europe and Meda countries (countries from Turkey to Morocco) in private sector development. Last year, Istarted to work part time due to age (over 70!), and I decided to pay some interest in FX trading as I had managed a trading room for JPM in the seventies. I quickly realized the business was completely different and that currencies such as ZAR and TYR could still be approached by a guy having no background in algorithms and sophisticated statistical tools! I am very impressed by the technics showed by Panamamike last Thursday with his two charts! Far out of my actual competence! Globally, I made good money then lost portion of it and remained somewhat constant over the last months. True that yesterday was a good day.

Ukraine; The situation is still very dangerous because the Russians are talking diplomatically one way to avoid further sanctions and are maintaining secretly support to pro- Russian in terms of ammunitions and tanks supply (see the 3 tanks pushed in Ukraine from Roscof and sent back by Ukrainian army) including ground air missiles (see the ylioutchine aircraft destruction Saturday – 50 victims). On the other hand, the Ukrainian army is regaining ground in Mariopol and also on the Easter Ukrainian border with Russia so as to block the transfer of arms and volunteers to pro-Russians. Nato is helping the Ukrainians with ground intelligence and also with military planning (not in the press) Worth mentioning that a stop in gas supply to Europe from Russia would hurt much more the Russians than the Europeans, knowing the such gas blockage could still cost Europe 2 to 3% recession in 6 to nine months. Presently the situation is evolving towards more violence. Thus for Turkey the situation remains very difficult with the risk of a Syrian type conflict on its northern border! But the prisoners made by the Ukrainian army in Mariopol should help to understand better how the pro-russian operate and receive their support from Russia…

Iraq: Obama has clearly delineated his position: He will limit US to supply instructors, Arms and eventually aircraft interventions (mainly through drones) Timing is not that soon because two conditions set : the government of Iraq must demonstrate that he will put all its efforts to fight the rebels. This appears to evolve positively tonight. Two, he must also demonstrate that he will really attempt to regain the confidence of the Sunnite not directly connected with the rebels. Sunday has indicated also that US could go forward to further open dialogue with Iran since they want to help the local government of Iraq. Anther condition (not in the press) is that Nato, and in particular Turkey, will support the action of the US and really cooperate to the global approach As indicated before, it means also that Turkey has to move to sooth further the relations with the Kurds who are actually swamped with refugees (200.000). Let’s not forget that the Syrian conflict amounts to over 200.000 dead toll and over 2 million refugees in three countries (Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon).

Baghdadi: He started business on the many boo-boo of the American administration in Iraq after the blitzkrieg. Balmer, one of the most stupid men ever, with the assistance of Cheney highly corrupted (the many Haliburton scandals never ending in court), decided, among other things to fire from one day to the other 400.000 soldiers from the Iraqi army on the ground that they were support of Sadam. Which was ridiculous but thereafter they were without revenues and jobs! That is when Baghdadi came in Iraq and in two years he was active in fighting the Americans with suicide actions… Unfortunately the Iraq government thereafter was not brilliant in attempting to put back the Sunnites in the governing picture. Naturally, by 06 or 07, everybody realized that to allow Americans to leave Iraq, an army had to be formed again but many former soldiers did not come back and particularly the officers who today are supporting Bagdadi and joined his structure in the last years…… And it is debatable whether the new Obama plead will lead to significant results so late in the game.
In 2011 he jumped into the Syrian situation and gained a strong position in the north east of the country because his plan is to form his own country with north west of Iraq and north east of Syria and this Sunday, while he lost some ground in the south, close to Bagdad, he further consolidated his northern position by taking the last border check points belonging to the Iraqi government. Over the last months however, he was not only fought by Bachar but also by the official democratic army because of excess of violence and refusal to participate to common ground! He lost some battle and many men in these double conflicts but he is still very strong in the north west of Syria. His army is the one that has gained most of the European volunteers (+/-250) and his finance comes from private Gulf trust funds, mainly Saudi Arabian.

Conclusion : I do not see the Turkish lira reevaluating in this context, despite the good economic performance in the last quarter but that does not say where it will be going in the very short term: It is worth noting that it closed for the week-end at 2,1225… I personally want to see the latest news on Monday and the trend around 6-8 GMT