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  • #904,381
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:22pm Jun 12, 2014 3:22pm
R:R for E/G is looking very appealing...

edit, if not here, then 1.782~
  • #904,382
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:29pm Jun 12, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting lancedes
65/70 pip up spike on cable. More than negates the down spike 4 hrs ago.
Totally Missed that one...

I sit out End of NY, typically too much of a snooze fest...

As it turns out, I think I might have been shorting it given the dive earlier...didn't make nothing...didn't lose nothing...

MEH!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #904,383
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:10pm Jun 12, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Price have broken the down tl and made an undershot, I am back in
I risked 10 pips (1%) on this one, made 28.....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,384
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:37pm Jun 12, 2014 4:37pm
Missed the train down. It's going at least to 1.3540

Grrrr!
Visit my Drumming & Percussion Blog - DrumsCult com
  • #904,385
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:40pm Jun 12, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
its hard to get news in my little cabin in the woods. i read a lot here about banks// the interest i had was the printing by fed. the fed printed is what i hear. btw how much of the 700 billion tarp was spent? then how much was absorbed back after repayment? the fed balance sheet is growing, on the other hand the government is selling less bonds (more money is coming in) and at the same time bank reserves are near the all time highs. when banks have large reserves it makes the banks balance sheet stronger. stock markets at a high and yet the banks...
different world. (I am sure you know this) banks are aloud to use their deposits as collateral ... to borrow more ... to put into deposit .. to use as collateral.

paying <1% on deposit to reap in 3%+ (upto what ... 20%) by lending to another Southern (eastern?) EU nation .. and all backed by the IMF/ECB/EU/etc ...

Life is peachy for lenders of last resort ... it will take years (already couple years in) for debt repayment to show the true colors of the South. It will be a nasty unwind, and lets see Mr. D try and find a program that will be equal across the board for all ... unless reparations are made err ... promised.
  • #904,386
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:56pm Jun 12, 2014 5:56pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} I would like to think so, current level is a good sell level for me (see H1) the bigger question for me is if it does and rejects will I clear some of my shorts from above 1.37 edit: I have not seen any sign of solid buying since before the top 399x every single retrace or consolidation has been sold so far
Not this time, maybe soon, maybe not........yes 3503 was the bottom of the range...only got to 3512....were bulls worried to miss the boat?.....well only time can confirm that...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,387
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:01pm Jun 12, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Not this time, maybe soon, maybe not........yes 3503 was the bottom of the range...only got to 3512....were bulls worried to miss the boat?.....well only time can confirm that...
47 and 42, good test for the bulls and 72 for the bears.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,388
  • Edited 7:04pm Jun 12, 2014 6:45pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} different world. (I am sure you know this) banks are aloud to use their deposits as collateral ... to borrow more ... to put into deposit .. to use as collateral. paying <1% on deposit to reap in 3%+ (upto what ... 20%) by lending to another Southern (eastern?) EU nation .. and all backed by the IMF/ECB/EU/etc ... Life is peachy for lenders of last resort ... it will take years (already couple years in) for debt repayment to show the true colors of the South. It will be a nasty unwind, and lets see Mr. D try and find a program that will...
they are allowed, the thing that matters is, "what they do". so i ask what will they do? atm it looks like the option taken is the negative rate. i dont know what will happen tomorrow. but if the deposits have increased since negative rates. what is the reason? i can speculate and do, i would just like something plausible. plausible may not fit the masses reason.

maybe they did buy south e bonds till they were all sold. the rates did drop indicating this. but evidently they had some other on hand money, that they deposited. i could speculate they would make more lending in traditional ways and make a greater profit. would that not make bank deposits shrink instead of growing? i dont claim to know all reasons or being first hand familiar. its the reason i ask. if i could make a lot of money lending, what would be the reason to eat a negative rate? does the ecb banks have a underlying currency shortage?? so the banks are choosing to boost balance sheets with more cash on hand? are we in the dark into why dragass wants to ease?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #904,389
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:34pm Jun 12, 2014 7:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they are allowed, the thing that matters is, "what they do". so i ask what will they do? atm it looks like the option taken is the negative rate. i dont know what will happen tomorrow. but if the deposits have increased since negative rates. what is the reason? i can speculate and do, i would just like something plausible. plausible may not fit the masses reason. maybe they did buy south e bonds till they were all sold. the rates did drop indicating this. but evidently they had some other on hand money, that they deposited. i...
insurance. Letting wine maker Abel or German Engineer Hans borrow might return a good profit, especially when the Chinese are the #1 wine buyers now and solar power is advancing. But the ECB all but 100% insures all top tier lending. So eating a negative rate is still nothing when it is free money through rehypothecation. The US learned its lesson with borrowing on borrowed money, Europe apparently didn't.

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003536

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003537

A Euro in the bank is worth two in the Bush.

I think the progress is simple, and the math is where liberals/progressives win ... it takes years to play out. I have been bullish Euro until this all plays out.

I think simply, they aren't playing 'max yeild' games, they are playing zero sum .. either you have return or you don't. I think there are underlying deals to keep government afloat, to keep the people who are in their 30's and 40's ... and 50's at bay. Its hot potato. In the US, what is it ... $100 = $1000 with fractional reserve banking .... ? something like that.

They are doing the same thing, instead of banking .. it is just using cash to buy bonds, and using those bonds to borrow cash ... what is the factor for $100 there? there are no stats that I see ... it sucks, nothing to go on ... its all how long that those numbers last, are the talking heads referring to asset value as mark-to-market or from 2006 memos. Hell, a lot of rich folks based on those old memos. And if that is the credit they have, they can borrow alot more than their net worth, a billionaire only needs a billion in assets, doesn't matter the debt.

edit -

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money...2.0000.en.html
  • #904,390
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:01pm Jun 12, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} insurance. Letting wine maker Abel or German Engineer Hans borrow might return a good profit, especially when the Chinese are the #1 wine buyers now and solar power is advancing. But the ECB all but 100% insures all top tier lending. So eating a negative rate is still nothing when it is free money through rehypothecation. The US learned its lesson with borrowing on borrowed money, Europe apparently didn't. http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003536 http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003537 A Euro...
i was just showing another angle that may fit. in 2007 the ecb not having enough usd was not common knowledge either. so the fed did the exchange bypassing the open market.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #904,391
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:11pm Jun 12, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was just showing another angle that may fit. in 2007 the ecb not having enough usd was not common knowledge either. so the fed did the exchange bypassing the open market.
oh I didn't mean to make it like I disagreed or anything. When I don't understand something, or have no clue what is going on, or both ... I play dumb (or go to normal when in reality I usually act smart?) and dumb down the process. This dumbed down process is simple, fake growth through borrowing on cheap money or 'other peoples' assets. are you willing to borrow my lawn mower ... knowing it belongs to bob? if you don't have one, I bet you will not only borrow it, but won't care if it breaks.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev..._swaplines.htm

yeah, when that swap was announced, the royally F**ked me ... I was hurt from that 200+ pip 5m bar at 8am for a month ... that stung. That was a lesson that I haven't forgot. and it is why my mind is open to europe et al.

I think what they are doing can survive decades ... but they have the same problem that any Democrat/Liberal has (in the us at least) ... the more you regulate .. the more you have to manage ... the more sticks to keep in place and the more stick-holders you need ... more stick holders .. less stick makers and stick stackers ... I think the point of no return is more stick holders and managers than the latter. that is where we are at ... imo.

long story short, plenty of wiggle room with this game, not counting on a crash anytime soon. but when it happens, i have no loyalty .. I will switch at the flip of a dime.

Other indicators ... I think the S&P goes to 2100+ before a crash, who knows ...
  • #904,392
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:16pm Jun 12, 2014 8:16pm
Pretty fekkin quiet in here....

Are there no more options expiring?

Much the reason I prefer to stick to techs...Bullshit will always be bullshit...money always leads the way...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #904,393
  • Edited 8:38pm Jun 12, 2014 8:24pm | Edited 8:38pm
The daily formed bar is an outside bar, bull bar but with large wicks on both sides, next daily bar will give more informations, if is a nice decent large trend bull bar with the close near the high, the weekly bar also will change from a bear trend bar (since yesterday) to another indecision bar confirming that price are into range as shown into the previous two weekly bars.

The range in the weekly is forming a flag of the previous bear poole (bear flag), if it breaks, will find his nose on the major uptrendline and the previous swing low (double bottom bull flag) and if it fails it will produce a final failed bear flag (which is a good set up because the are few bears left and many also trapped and will give encouragement to the bulls buy the lack of bears or by bears tuning bulls by covering.

If next daily bar will be a small one with a close below the open near its low, there is a good chance of prices to reach the low of the range again, confirming the range.

As shown on the 5 minutes tf, many bears got trapped, not noticing that bulls have shown their strength before the continuation of the down side by breaking the major dtline in great force, yes prices made a LL, but that was a great spot for astute traders to get in, we can also notice this formation trap formed on the hourly, the hourly closed below the previous 20 candle low, and many astute traders placed their buy stop orders a few pips above the previous 20 bar low with a protective stop a few pips below the last low.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,394
  • Edited 8:38pm Jun 12, 2014 8:25pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting Magix
Pretty fekkin quiet in here.... Are there no more options expiring? Much the reason I prefer to stick to techs...Bullshit will always be bullshit...money always leads the way...
This is a great post.....As always...some time to time he come out with great insight....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,395
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:05pm Jun 12, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting Magix
Pretty fekkin quiet in here.... Are there no more options expiring? Much the reason I prefer to stick to techs...Bullshit will always be bullshit...money always leads the way...
I strongly disagree. Bullshit sometimes turns into horseshit.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #904,396
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:05pm Jun 12, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was just showing another angle that may fit. in 2007 the ecb not having enough usd was not common knowledge either. so the fed did the exchange bypassing the open market.
Is it fair and legal? Oh yeah! this is US. lol
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #904,397
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:15pm Jun 12, 2014 9:15pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I strongly disagree. Bullshit sometimes turns into horseshit.
you mean bearshit?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #904,398
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:19pm Jun 12, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting milam
{quote} you mean bearshit?
google for Ship High In Transit (or Stow High In Transit) to get enlightened.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #904,399
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:25pm Jun 12, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} google for Ship High In Transit (or Stow High In Transit) to get enlightened.
Here is the link http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl-s-word.htm
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #904,400
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:37pm Jun 12, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} oh I didn't mean to make it like I disagreed or anything. When I don't understand something, or have no clue what is going on, or both ... I play dumb (or go to normal when in reality I usually act smart?) and dumb down the process. This dumbed down process is simple, fake growth through borrowing on cheap money or 'other peoples' assets. are you willing to borrow my lawn mower ... knowing it belongs to bob? if you don't have one, I bet you will not only borrow it, but won't care if it breaks. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev..._swaplines.htm...
if you put paper to pen and figure the calculator part. some say usd money has grown X 4. personally i think money from the fed is not money till it goes through a bank into the system. not parked at the fed. if it was 4 x the eur/usd be in the 5.6000 level. it was late 2007 when bb did a large swap. for the reason that that e banks were low on usd. 6 months later was july 2008. they averted the crash by 6 months.

too much regulations now? its not the first time not enough regulation lead to a crash. 1929 and a few others come to mind.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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