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  • #79,361
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:14am Jun 12, 2014 6:14am
Quoting Ken A
What's the cost of a kangaroo
They are free, go shooting on the farm once a month. Great meat.
  • #79,362
  • Edited 6:42am Jun 12, 2014 6:30am | Edited 6:42am
.83 correlation is pretty much whot

was is the better word

I wont test others, but pretty much hard to say about corr for long period.


intraday-few dayz..ok. for me nothing mo

even eurusd/usdchf is lovely statement to say they are correlated. hard to say and play

edit:typo eurusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #79,363
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:43am Jun 12, 2014 6:43am
Quoting 21vs7
.83 correlation is pretty much whot was is the better word I wont test others, but pretty much hard to say about corr for long period. intraday-few dayz..ok. for me nothing mo even eurusd/usdchf is lovely statement to say they are correlated. hard to say and play {image}
The point was that they trend together. The S&P was an example. Someone said AUD doesn't trend with commodities, and it does. But whatevs
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #79,364
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:45am Jun 12, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} The point was that they trend together. The S&P was an example. Someone said AUD doesn't trend with commodities, and it does. But whatevs
I said it does, but with local commodity prices. Local Coal and Iron ore price weakness is causing weakness in the AUD.
  • #79,365
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:49am Jun 12, 2014 6:49am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hey Magix. Here's one trade that seemed to work for us of the crooked eyed
1 trade in 2 weeks that worked out using trendlines?


Good trade Matt...

I guess, if it's working for ya...keep on, keep'n on...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #79,366
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:32am Jun 12, 2014 7:32am
commodity prices, interest rates, iron exports, gold and silver prices,unemployment figures, the price of kangaroo meat, and the price of tea in china.
with all of this valuable information, approx 95% of you were biased to the short side. very few of you actually posted a reason(like a supply or demand area),
lots of blah blah,with very little vision looking forward. If you go back to my charts and postings, you will see some structure depicting why the 95% wind up giving their money to the 5%. i have learned to not be biased in my thinking, and to let the chart(fact) guide me in my decisions. from my last chart postings, we are currently(on my chart) about 4 pips from my objective supply zone called 3 or 4 days ago. price may get there or not, or shoot right through it, who knows!
point is i had a reason. if trading isn't working out for you today, and it didn't work for you yesterday, why the hell would it work tomorrow?
trading is a craft, that derives a skill set. useless info only distracts you from what is happening, oscillators, wavy lines and all that junk is again there to take your focus away from the most important fact, price. clear your screens of the rainbow of colors and wavy lines and focus on the fact that if price changed at x price, it probably will have another reaction near that price. you all can be excellent traders that don't have to rely on other peoples opinions to trade(including mine), however, when i click the button to action, i'm confident in my click. all you need to trade are a few lines and/ or a few rectangles, that's about it...
good luck all
  • #79,367
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:35am Jun 12, 2014 7:35am
Quoting nealpek
commodity prices, interest rates, iron exports, gold and silver prices,unemployment figures, the price of kangaroo meat, and the price of tea in china. with all of this valuable information, approx 95% of you were biased to the short side. very few of you actually posted a reason(like a supply or demand area), lots of blah blah,with very little vision looking forward. If you go back to my charts and postings, you will see some structure depicting why the 95% wind up giving their money to the 5%. i have learned to not be biased in my thinking, and...
You're talking about price action? I need to do some extensive research into that.
  • #79,368
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:37am Jun 12, 2014 7:37am
.94100 tough nut to crack.
  • #79,369
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:38am Jun 12, 2014 7:38am
added another short here
  • #79,370
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:40am Jun 12, 2014 7:40am
Completely agreed with nealpek.

AUD growth unsustainable! - next two weeks will go down and this move up was purely speculative and was very hard for bulls. Soon they run out of money.

INFO:

In domestic economic news, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the unemployment rate in May was 5.8 per cent, in-line with forecasts. But economists said the labour market is softer than the headline unemployment rate suggests, with it hiding a falling participation rate as more job seekers give up looking for work.
"Employment tends to be a lagging indicator so it does not have a big influence on our equity strategy," Zurich Financial Services senior investment strategist Patrick Noble said.
Mining was the worst-performing sector, down 0.9 per cent, as the spot price for iron ore, landed in China, edged down another 0.1 per cent to $US93.50 a tonne. A steep fall in iron ore futures trading in China suggested the spot price would fall again on Thursday night.
  • #79,371
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:41am Jun 12, 2014 7:41am
No Arman, not price action.price action is simply the result of two opposing forces pushing back and forth over a period of time.
the direction that follows this price action is called supply and demand. it is these areas that make my trading decisions, not price action.
price action by itself is completely useless!!!
  • #79,372
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:44am Jun 12, 2014 7:44am
Quoting nealpek
No Arman, not price action.price action is simply the result of two opposing forces pushing back and forth over a period of time. the direction that follows this price action is called supply and demand. it is these areas that make my trading decisions, not price action. price action by itself is completely useless!!!
I simply use fibs and the support and resistance of the patterns, is this what you mean by supply and demand? Or do you have specific indicators which show it?
  • #79,373
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:45am Jun 12, 2014 7:45am
Quoting SydneyGuru
Completely agreed with nealpek. AUD growth unsustainable! - next two weeks will go down and this move up was purely speculative and was very hard for bulls. Soon they run out of money. INFO: In domestic economic news, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the unemployment rate in May was 5.8 per cent, in-line with forecasts. But economists said the labour market is softer than the headline unemployment rate suggests, with it hiding a falling participation rate as more job seekers give up looking for work. "Employment tends to be a lagging...

lol you guys are definitely entertaining, this was the whole point.
Anybody gonna make a trading decision with this valuable info??
  • #79,374
  • Edited 8:07am Jun 12, 2014 7:50am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting nealpek
commodity prices, interest rates, iron exports, gold and silver prices,unemployment figures, the price of kangaroo meat, and the price of tea in china. with all of this valuable information, approx 95% of you were biased to the short side. very few of you actually posted a reason(like a supply or demand area), lots of blah blah,with very little vision looking forward. If you go back to my charts and postings, you will see some structure depicting why the 95% wind up giving their money to the 5%. i have learned to not be biased in my thinking, and...
As I read your posts, we have a very similar view...My research on price action has derived a few very simple "truths" about currency pairs:

- They all have "extended areas" where reversal is highly probable. You refer to this as supply/demand zones, I simple consider it oversold or overbought. At oversold, it's buy time, At overbought, it's sell time. My research indicates from .9424 - .9518 is overbought territory for AUD/USD which began in the 9380 area.

- Whichever direction the pair moves, it can, and with high probability will at some point move the other direction double. I've been tracking this for a number of years and every calculated point gets hit. Regardless of how ridiculous it sounds. Current price area over the last couple of days was "forecasted" in Mid May for this pair when everyone was thinking we were heading further down...Nope...as you see, all that was happening was the rubber band was stretching out for more momentum to achieve a higher upside...no worries, right now with action in this area, the downside is clarifying.

Ultimately, my firm opinion is: Price action is the markets purest indicator. It is the ultimate expression of fear and greed entering the market.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #79,375
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:50am Jun 12, 2014 7:50am
I agreed all above threads saying AUD shouldn't be such high based on fundi
I also agreed all above thread saying AUD could move up to test prev high and even 0.95 base on tech.

AUD can stay here because of several reasons, good Q1 GDP, not too bad data, Cheap EU money, Cheap JP money and potentially more Chinese stimulus policy.

AUD definitely will below 0.92 this year. but you don't know when and where it will drop from. Maybe 0.94xx or even 0.95+

so risk management is key to do some anti-trend trade.

I still hold light short orders.
  • #79,376
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:52am Jun 12, 2014 7:52am
go on youtube and search supply and demand trading! some pretty good videos, they will guide you further.
i used to use fibs too... after blowing up my account, i took the leap and figured if three quarters of the trading world use fibs, and they are basically getting eaten alive in the markets, maybe, just maybe fibs aren't the 8th wonder of the world!!!
  • #79,377
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:03am Jun 12, 2014 8:03am
again gdp blah blah,eu money blah blah, chinese food(shrimps in lobster sauce,ummm) price went up because it hit a demand zone, and price went down because it hit a supply zone..........................blah kangaroos, blah,blahhh, rain man, run forest run, a multidimensional hypervolume of resource axis partitioning,
blah blah. i don't read financial news, couldn't care less, since being on this board, you created wealth for me. How? i could see the vast majority of sentiment
biased to downside. since public is usually wrong, and the big boys know this too! i look for counter sentiment trades! works pretty well!!!
  • #79,378
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:06am Jun 12, 2014 8:06am
somebody post a supply zone or a demand zone.....please!!!!
  • #79,379
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:08am Jun 12, 2014 8:08am
does anyone know what a supply or demand area looks like?
  • #79,380
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:09am Jun 12, 2014 8:09am
Quoting nealpek
somebody post a supply zone or a demand zone.....please!!!!
My listing of supply/demand zones < It's dynamic, so, you'll see it update as I input more data.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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