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  • #79,261
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:45pm Jun 11, 2014 8:45pm
Quoting ffleo
let us see who gonna win between Japanese funds and aussie defenders. Just watch AJ for some clue.
I have large position on AJ from 95.86
So far pressure is Down
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #79,262
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:50pm Jun 11, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I have large position on AJ from 95.86 So far pressure is Down
For AJ, looks like monthly R1 is resistance for the previous daily red candle. If today also finished red, the pressure is down, to monthly pivot at 94.63. Otherwise it may go to 97.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #79,263
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:00pm Jun 11, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} Maybe it is time for someone to start a new forum called ONLY AUD/USD so when i get up half asleep and check the comments and charts i don't think the world is ending because i have mistaken EUR or YEN for AUD.
  • #79,264
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:08pm Jun 11, 2014 9:08pm
Is it time to short yet? Or better wait till next year?
  • #79,265
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:13pm Jun 11, 2014 9:13pm
Still hold 1 short at 0.93, 1 short at 0.94...
but hold 20 lots AUD/NZD short at 1.10.

AUD/NZD is in box and quite safe this year. 1.06- 1.1050.

If you really want to short aud heavily, I prefer short AUD/NZD.
  • #79,266
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:27pm Jun 11, 2014 9:27pm
After being off trading for a year I'm back.
Blown 3 accounts in the mean time though :/

My bias on AUD/USD has been short. However after the breakout of the downward trend line and hit of .94 ... Im having second thoughts.
  • #79,267
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:29pm Jun 11, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} that requires AJ go to 94.63 and UJ go to 101.42. If that happens, AU forms a triple top on daily without making a HH. 10 minutes to see which way AJ will go.
No close. I differential closes oppose to "breaks." I could careless about a breech of .9400. The inability to close above that key resistance would give me reason to short. That's why I specifically say close lol.

We're likely to see that retrace lower.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #79,268
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:32pm Jun 11, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} No close. I differential closes oppose to "breaks." I could careless about a breech of .9400. The inability to close above that key resistance would give me reason to short. That's why I specifically say close lol. We're likely to see that retrace lower.
Yep. 94 is a strong motherfucker. Arguably the strongest in AUD history. Without a Weekly close above it I will continue to short.
  • #79,269
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:41pm Jun 11, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Yep. 94 is a strong motherfucker. Arguably the strongest in AUD history. Without a Weekly close above it I will continue to short.
The daily RSI has hit resistance (has acted as resistance all year). Interesting how it plays out. I always thought playing breakouts, more so around risk events, is a fool's game.

However, commodities have been kinda strong recently and a poor retail sales tomorrow could perk it up.

I expect more range bound trading. Has trading between .92 and .94 for the last three months.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #79,270
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:50pm Jun 11, 2014 9:50pm
Trading below yesterdays open again... 0.9371
  • #79,271
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:52pm Jun 11, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} No close. I differential closes oppose to "breaks." I could careless about a breech of .9400. The inability to close above that key resistance would give me reason to short. That's why I specifically say close lol. We're likely to see that retrace lower.
any retrace lower from here the pressure is down due to the triple top on daily.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #79,272
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:53pm Jun 11, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} The daily RSI has hit resistance (has acted as resistance all year). Interesting how it plays out. I always thought playing breakouts, more so around risk events, is a fool's game. However, commodities have been kinda strong recently and a poor retail sales tomorrow could perk it up. I expect more range bound trading. Has trading between .92 and .94 for the last three months.
Commodities strong? What are you smoking? Can I have some?

Gold broke below the support a few weeks ago and looks to be heading back to 1180. The Aussie will follow, it just takes a few weeks to flow on. When 0.92 gives way (as early as next week), I'd say we'll be pretty quickly below 0.90 again.
  • #79,273
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:59pm Jun 11, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Commodities strong? What are you smoking? Can I have some? Gold broke below the support a few weeks ago and looks to be heading back to 1180. The Aussie will follow, it just takes a few weeks to flow on. When 0.92 gives way (as early as next week), I'd say we'll be pretty quickly below 0.90 again.
this time you only need 0.93 to break for it to go down a lot (as dictated by the monthly candles). And it will go down much lower than 0.9 if 0.93 breaks.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #79,274
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:06pm Jun 11, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} this time you only need 0.93 to break for it to go down a lot (as dictated by the monthly candles). And it will go down much lower than 0.9 if 0.93 breaks.
I don't see that? Above 0.92 is still in the range?
  • #79,275
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:07pm Jun 11, 2014 10:07pm
My observations: (sorry - not chart picasso for this...in the traditional sense anyway..)

Current extreme low on AU: .9130
Current extreme high on AU: .9518

nearest term short hurdle: .9330s
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #79,276
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:20pm Jun 11, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} I don't see that? Above 0.92 is still in the range?
what range it is going to be if June candle turns red?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie - i7860-TDA_253.png Size: 181 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #79,277
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:34pm Jun 11, 2014 10:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what range it is going to be if June candle turns red? {image}
I guess we see things differently. In the period of July 2012 - March 2013 we had a few red candles in the range of 1.01-1.06 which didn't change anything.

That said, my opinion is we will have a red candle this month below .92. Are you positioned at the moment?
  • #79,278
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:42pm Jun 11, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} I guess we see things differently. In the period of July 2012 - March 2013 we had a few red candles in the range of 1.01-1.06 which didn't change anything. That said, my opinion is we will have a red candle this month below .92. Are you positioned at the moment?
I hold short positions.
If this monthly candle closes below 0.92 as you expect, it is pretty bearish when 3 monthly candles are looked together.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #79,279
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:02pm Jun 11, 2014 11:02pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what range it is going to be if June candle turns red? {image}
to 86
  • #79,280
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:42pm Jun 11, 2014 11:42pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Ahhhhhhhh yes...The ever popular, tilt your head and change the time frame, trendline... Well... Good luck, with that.. Ya see where price is now? Do you know why this is a safer area to short than is to go long? Because if price moves above, it will come back down...if price is rejected here...it's curtains for this bitch... Sure, I know there's a lotta AUD bulls in the house...like I give a shit...fact remains, we are heading in to summer session and this can really do whatever it wants. Below this line, it wants to devour some bulls......
Hey Magix. Here's one trade that seemed to work for us of the crooked eyed

(The dust cover of this trade can be followed from the start in reply).

AU bullish above .935 imo. Yen seems to be taking a rest day from its rulership so far this week but is still reluctant to give any ground.

UJ still on a bear BO and possibly drawing a cup n handle formation but is still locked in lt range.

EU bounced from bottom of 4hr channel as expected, I am watching to see if it continues a BO of either direction from the NFP week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd #3.jpg Size: 184 KB
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