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USD/TRY

  • #321
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:51am Jun 11, 2014 12:51am
Hello Scotty

I have been following this thread for a while and playing with Turkish Lira. Islander mentioned 50 pips spread spikes which I had not seen. Thought I would share this screenshot. I don't usually use a 10 sec screen but when attempting to time exits I sometimes switch to this so I can see what brokers are doing with their spreads. A spike to 15 pips caused me to panic and get out (I did have multiple lots running and safety was my priority). Interesting to see exactly how the spreads pan out. Quite a good indicator potentially.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 211 KB
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #322
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:09am Jun 11, 2014 1:09am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Looks like a gorgeous place! We are all jealous. Even with the dirty work. I'm just hoping we continue onward and more importantly, upward. The New York dudes may want to blow right through that lower channel line--just for the hell of it too. Maybe Erdogan will help us out today berate Basci in front of lots of reporters. That'd sure be swell of him.
and they did, but the low was a higher low than Friday's which was last week's low. So now to wait for the break of yesterday's range......I've already been long this morning and banked some as I am out a lot this week...I have also repositioned my channel....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #323
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:11am Jun 11, 2014 1:11am
Quoting revoli
Hello Scotty I have been following this thread for a while and playing with Turkish Lira. Islander mentioned 50 pips spread spikes which I had not seen. Thought I would share this screenshot. I don't usually use a 10 sec screen but when attempting to time exits I sometimes switch to this so I can see what brokers are doing with their spreads. A spike to 15 pips caused me to panic and get out (I did have multiple lots running and safety was my priority). Interesting to see exactly how the spreads pan out. Quite a good indicator potentially. {image}...
GM Revoli - yes, I too noticed that spike in the spread......it was 20 / 22 pips on the two MT4 charts that I have open.....

PS Switching to their tick chart plots both the bid and ask for ~ the last 5 mins
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #324
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:22am Jun 11, 2014 1:22am
Quoting Islander
{quote} and they did, but the low was a higher low than Friday's which was last week's low. So now to wait for the break of yesterday's range......I've already been long this morning and banked some as I am out a lot this week...
Yes, Sir. I'm watching patiently. We have a double bottom on the hourly and price is working on breaking out of a wedge. Really we are stuck in range right now. The market is lacking conviction on direction. There is a lot of uncertainty. We need to hear from the CBRT about rates so that the market can know how serious Basci is about a possible series of rate cuts. IF price can break to the upside I think 2.10 will be strong resistance. I mentioned a couple weeks ago that price would be strongly magnetized to that level. I did not realize how long we'd get stuck there! I think that is precisely where we are headed.

Of course, be ready with tight stops for New York to undue the upside progress we've seen today. Its just that kind of market right now.
  • #325
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:41am Jun 11, 2014 1:41am
Quoting revoli
Hello Scotty I have been following this thread for a while and playing with Turkish Lira. Islander mentioned 50 pips spread spikes which I had not seen. Thought I would share this screenshot. I don't usually use a 10 sec screen but when attempting to time exits I sometimes switch to this so I can see what brokers are doing with their spreads. A spike to 15 pips caused me to panic and get out (I did have multiple lots running and safety was my priority). Interesting to see exactly how the spreads pan out. Quite a good indicator potentially. {image}...
Yes, the spread is volatile. However, oftentimes the spread is high at the moment when a good entry is available. If you are looking to become a buyer, I'd recommend watching an Ask chart. Oanda makes this easy. Once you've become a buyer, switch to a bid chart. You can also add the high and low ask or bid prices to your chart which is another way to track spreads. I also make sure to have the current bid/ask visible on my chart.

Edit*** By the way, tracking high and low bids on your charts reveals that many hours, especially the off-hours don't even make a profit possible. Good to know huh? You can track when and where retail traders have been profitable or not so much.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bidchart.JPG Size: 126 KB
  • #326
  • Jun 11, 2014 6:05am Jun 11, 2014 6:05am
Gentlemen,

I have been following your forum for the last three weeks and I must thank you all because it has been very fruitful for me in evaluating better the whereabouts of the two pairs: TRY and ZAR, that I have been following now for over a year with some success and also some painful failures, the last one around april 7

You mentioned this morning to be careful today with the level 2,1000 in USD TRY and I sold my mart at 2,1010 so if the NY session is negative I will be free to short. It went finally to 10,36 before coming down.

I have also verify closely a phenomenon that I cannot understand that Is the TYR and the ZAR in the last few weeks are fully correlated: they rise together and fall together or closely. In that regards the tables of Scotty Monday regarding the favorable moment to trade have been useful: In fact in the last two weeks, 6.00 GMT is the moment to watch the movements and it stops around d 12.30 13.00 GMT… for both pairs!

Last but not least I have been nervous yesterday and today because the Turks released the result of the first quarter and the GDP growth is strongly positive: 4% annually! Nevertheless the pair went back up to 10,36
  • #327
  • Jun 11, 2014 6:10am Jun 11, 2014 6:10am
just closes a long i had open from last night at 2.08, entering a short @ 2.1
  • #328
  • Jun 11, 2014 6:23am Jun 11, 2014 6:23am
Now Turkey has a political problems. There is President elections on August. America and Israel they do not want Erdogan now.During August we can see so many political problems. Now there is flag cris and embassy in Iraq Mosul cris. Usd TL is going up today because of this. My target is first 2.1150 and than 2.13 than 2.15. If political problems going up usd TL will touch 2,75
  • #329
  • Jun 11, 2014 6:34am Jun 11, 2014 6:34am
just a curious question from someone new to the game but what indicators do you guys value the most when it comes to these more exotic currency pairs?
  • #330
  • Jun 11, 2014 7:16am Jun 11, 2014 7:16am
Volatiltiy this week for ZAR and TRY, looks like ZAR is the leader for the downside for now after strikes talk broke down. I am honestly surprised these two are struggling so much post ECB. I was bearish on fragile 5 EM prior to ECB, but given a new round of money printing is near its hard to really get beared up.

If the ECB is easing thats good for these current account deficit EM guys. On the other side next weeks FOMC is a risk, and the recent stories this week on Chinese firms getting 5 loans on the same stock piles of copper/iron ore.... thats a massive risk going under the radar at the moment. At the moment I am moreso playing the China story via NZD.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #331
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:33am Jun 11, 2014 8:33am
Got stopped out of my USDZAR on that insane 50 pip/min pullback, got out of my USDTRY long also then, as i thought it may follow. In ZAR someone really defending that 10.79 level with a vengeance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 060611 USDTRY.png Size: 128 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 060611 USDZAR02.png Size: 129 KB
  • #332
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:52am Jun 11, 2014 8:52am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Yes, the spread is volatile. However, oftentimes the spread is high at the moment when a good entry is available. If you are looking to become a buyer, I'd recommend watching an Ask chart. Oanda makes this easy. Once you've become a buyer, switch to a bid chart. You can also add the high and low ask or bid prices to your chart which is another way to track spreads. I also make sure to have the current bid/ask visible on my chart. Edit*** By the way, tracking high and low bids on your charts reveals that many hours, especially the off-hours...
I was looking for an indicator to do that for MT4, like plot a dot on top of the candle for the highest ask. Also to help set SL. Anyone know of such an indicator?
  • #333
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:12am Jun 11, 2014 9:12am
I am juniotrader but blocked out due to a mistake in username. So forced to create a new username
This time it appears that the NY session is penalizing the ZAR, despite the negative position of the country, while the Tyr is still going up 2,1076 max and holding 2,1060ish presently. It is true that, with the bad situation in Iraq is extremely dangerous for the region with the Kurds next, the tyr could also go on the weak side in the following days thus 2,12 could be a reasonable target: I will go back on buying the pair tomorrow morning early, if the news are still as negative on the military side

The zar went down to 10,72 from 10,78 then Back up to 10,76 then 10,73 then 10,75, which means very little movement for the day. If anybody has a vision for the Zar tomorrow, it would be appreciated! True what Jeffmichaels is saying: I have been stopped pout also and trying to go back
  • #334
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:28pm Jun 11, 2014 2:28pm
beatiful bearish abcd pattern + fibo+stoch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rRcveeE.png Size: 48 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #335
  • Jun 11, 2014 4:54pm Jun 11, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting spinozagr
beatiful bearish abcd pattern + fibo+stoch {image}
We are in a range bound market..I can't say I'd be surprised to see more choppiness. I think the 2.10 level might hold this for now as we get ever closer to our next rate meeting. We'll see what late Asia and London bring. Good luck. What are the stats on your combined pattern?
  • #336
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:45pm Jun 11, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} We are in a range bound market..I can't say I'd be surprised to see more choppiness. I think the 2.10 level might hold this for now as we get ever closer to our next rate meeting. We'll see what late Asia and London bring. Good luck. What are the stats on your combined pattern?
sorry bro...

what do you mean by saying "combined" ?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #337
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:59pm Jun 11, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} sorry bro... what do you mean by saying "combined" ?
hahah...Well, i have just wake up...sorry...

This setup is successful more than 75%...

the problem here is that the abcd pattern is NOT valid anymore....

lets see what will happen

venceremos
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #338
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:02am Jun 12, 2014 12:02am
Alright guys. The next few weeks could get extremely interesting. The situation in Iraq is really escalating, I think as things continue to heat up there we'll see a massive flight from risk. The situation has now come to the point of Iraq being "Open to US air-strikes." The civil war in Syria has put downward pressure on the Lira in the recent past, and now this. Make no mistake about it, this crisis will only get worse before it gets any better. Its hard to stop a speeding freight train.

The spike in prices yesterday could very well continue into today. I'm already long and patiently waiting to see what will happen. Yesterday we saw the Borsa deflate by 3%, money is on the move. IF we see another rapid spike today and further selling of the Lira in the coming days AND see Basci try to lower rates this month we may be talking about a perfect storm. Either way, I think the direction is most definitley up at this point. All of this aside, be very careful! Use stops and trade with your own research and convictions, not just because of what I share. Things could get volatile BOTH ways in the coming days as the market tries to digest all of the implications this new conflict will bring.

We have data out of the US today which could help or hurt the trade, it's impossible to know until we have the numbers. Right now price is making a pin bar on the hourly. The market may try to push down below 2.11 to sweep the stops there--they are probably quite sizeable! TWT.
  • #339
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:11am Jun 12, 2014 12:11am
Quoting Scotty B
Alright guys. The next few weeks could get extremely interesting.
Starting today appearantly pretty hefty pullbacks in USDTRY & USDZAR, on the sidelines for now.
  • #340
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:36am Jun 12, 2014 12:36am
Quoting jeffmichaels
{quote} Starting today appearantly pretty hefty pullbacks in USDTRY & USDZAR, on the sidelines for now.
Yes, I have sold and banked and am now scaling in buys ~ the fib retraces.....-180 pips in 45 minutes is VERY fast......

PS Pls check your PM
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