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  • #904,141
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:25am Jun 11, 2014 11:25am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Here is my analysis and a bit of a different interpretation. I trade from the M30 and H4 charts. I'm not going to pull up my actual trading charts with all the indicators since they will confuse many people.. But here is the interesting setup based on trend lines. I'm not denying that the price could fall even lower. What they are showing me is that the speed of falling rate has slowed down and we have arrived at a decision points. Based on numbers, we have arrived at a major price zone where price generally gets stuck at. So when at a place...

its bearish.. its being held up on the last layer of the pin, if it was going to go higher I would have expected euro to move at 86 or 39.. usd is at its spot at 88 though but I expect higher.... but in the short term I expect a small short down too 1.3486 invalidating the pin....
  • #904,142
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:23pm Jun 11, 2014 12:23pm
i guess its time for the rebound on eur/usd maybe after checking the support lines on 1.3500 or 1.3520 stochastic and RSI show oversold
  • #904,143
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:32pm Jun 11, 2014 12:32pm
That''s by far are the most two awkward days in the last two trading months ... it had the opportunity to attack $1.350 with selling momentum yesterday, but didn't happen. Then Today, with the Yen being bought over the board and SPX selling - yet it stood still and rose abit! Is the guy / institution / Alien presence finished or not yet?! ( The amount of distortion since this May's drop is really amazing)

* The most pathetic one is the Dollar Index rally
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dollar-DXY.png Size: 30 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #904,144
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:52pm Jun 11, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting Vachus
That''s by far are the most two awkward days in the last two trading months ... it had the opportunity to attack $1.350 with selling momentum yesterday, but didn't happen. Then Today, with the Yen being bought over the board and SPX selling - yet it stood still and rose abit! Is the guy / institution / Alien presence finished or not yet?! ( The amount of distortion since this May's drop is really amazing) * The most pathetic one is the Dollar Index rally {image}
I must agree with you, who knows, what games are played with and without us.
Maybe is time to rise up....a little
  • #904,145
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:54pm Jun 11, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting Vachus
That''s by far are the most two awkward days in the last two trading months ... it had the opportunity to attack $1.350 with selling momentum yesterday, but didn't happen. Then Today, with the Yen being bought over the board and SPX selling - yet it stood still and rose abit! Is the guy / institution / Alien presence finished or not yet?! ( The amount of distortion since this May's drop is really amazing) * The most pathetic one is the Dollar Index rally {image}
Vachus,

Just look how similar is the USDCHF chart and Dollar Index chart on H1 and H4 and will all know the correlation between the USDCHF and EURUSD, so I'm asking again because maybe you didn't saw my post in the morning, are you still holdings on those longs? and if Yes give me some arguments so I can minimize the risk I've took on my latest short positions .


Regards and green pips to all !
  • #904,146
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:10pm Jun 11, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Vachus, Just look how similar is the USDCHF chart and Dollar Index chart on H1 and H4 and will all know the correlation between the USDCHF and EURUSD, so I'm asking again because maybe you didn't saw my post in the morning, are you still holdings on those longs? and if Yes give me some arguments so I can minimize the risk I've took on my latest short positions . Regards and green pips to all !
That's also part of the awkward move happening since the month of May. Yes, i'm still holding to my longs! The why? I have many reasons not to trust the move down, i'm not here talking about 5 minutes time frame or even hourly - But daily basis. On the short term, this distortion with major assets is simply not sustainable. It's more pronounced on EURUSD, when u apply S&P 500 on it.

The rule of thumb is, distortion on high liquid assets are normalized sooner of later ... ( As long as the same Macro fundamentals remain the same)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jDre6kCI.png Size: 54 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #904,147
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:14pm Jun 11, 2014 1:14pm
Damn all indicators and charts and etc of mine are confused now and just don't point to any probability more than other ones. It has been like one of those tv series that keep you waiting for a huge event that you wanna see
Attached Image
People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #904,148
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:18pm Jun 11, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Vachus
That''s by far are the most two awkward days in the last two trading months ... it had the opportunity to attack $1.350 with selling momentum yesterday, but didn't happen. Then Today, with the Yen being bought over the board and SPX selling - yet it stood still and rose abit! Is the guy / institution / Alien presence finished or not yet?! ( The amount of distortion since this May's drop is really amazing) * The most pathetic one is the Dollar Index rally {image}
nice one .
Seriously its strange .
People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #904,149
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:31pm Jun 11, 2014 1:31pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Vachus, Just look how similar is the USDCHF chart and Dollar Index chart on H1 and H4
The USDCHF is by far the most dangerous part in this equation. This pair started the year with overheated speculation that the bottom was here and i was in favor of this view. However as the year progressed, the pair did little and speculation kept building up. Yet, it's not rising! Deutsche Bank in February, on a note to clients wrote a warning that the pair is getting overbought at the bottom. if you simply draw a horizontal line on the key level $0.90 and see how many days, the pair can't manage to stay above it ... it really tells the story!

*So, i'm willing to entertain the hypothesis that Swiss franc is about soar ... given that last month, the Swiss CPI is ticking higher! But first, let's see what the Alien presence wants to do with the Euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6iQtHRNM.png Size: 34 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #904,150
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:38pm Jun 11, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Vachus, Just look how similar is the USDCHF chart and Dollar Index chart on H1 and H4 and will all know the correlation between the USDCHF and EURUSD, so I'm asking again because maybe you didn't saw my post in the morning, are you still holdings on those longs? and if Yes give me some arguments so I can minimize the risk I've took on my latest short positions . Regards and green pips to all !
USDX is the same as USDCHF, becouse CHF is from fundamental perspective X when it comes to neutrality.
  • #904,151
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:42pm Jun 11, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting Fx-gtg
{quote} if it goes to 1.38 it s likely to go higher >1.40
bear with me...
  • #904,152
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:49pm Jun 11, 2014 1:49pm
anyone else just get a spike up to 3545 ish
  • #904,153
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:49pm Jun 11, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting MaxDoom
anyone else just get a spike up to 3545 ish
nop
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #904,154
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:50pm Jun 11, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting MaxDoom
anyone else just get a spike up to 3545 ish
Nothing on my live, tradingview or demo.
  • #904,155
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:58pm Jun 11, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting MaxDoom
anyone else just get a spike up to 3545 ish
..no, not me too, but it would be nice
  • #904,156
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:58pm Jun 11, 2014 1:58pm
thanks chaps... broker just sorted it out on their own, it took my stop out but they had a dodgy quote and put it all back to normal thankfully as it is a large position

here it is
Attached Image
  • #904,157
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:36pm Jun 11, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting MaxDoom
thanks chaps... broker just sorted it out on their own, it took my stop out but they had a dodgy quote and put it all back to normal thankfully as it is a large position here it is {image}
whoa! I didn't got any spike here... that is a real shady spike, you should ask them what happen.
Did you had stop losses there? were you able to sell the spike?
  • #904,158
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:43pm Jun 11, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting MaxDoom
thanks chaps... broker just sorted it out on their own, it took my stop out but they had a dodgy quote and put it all back to normal thankfully as it is a large position here it is {image}
so if you didn't say anything they would have free access to your money....
  • #904,159
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:47pm Jun 11, 2014 2:47pm
Did you guys see that Friday is the 13th?

Maybe some nightmare will happen then.
  • #904,160
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:05pm Jun 11, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} so if you didn't say anything they would have free access to your money....
Quoting emmalee25
{quote} whoa! I didn't got any spike here... that is a real shady spike, you should ask them what happen. Did you had stop losses there? were you able to sell the spike?
no, as I said it took out my stop but they corrected it before I even spoke to them. not a shady broker been very reliable for me over the years

so of course that means I still have a large short position in play, and you now know where one of my stops is
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