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SPX and DAX - CFDs are the place to be

  • #41
  • Jun 10, 2014 7:05am Jun 10, 2014 7:05am
Small observation on Dow, it's under 200SMA in my 10min chart and sits on 200SMA in 15min chart, looks like it would like to go under. Patience is king, I stick with my short here. Last time i noticed the same circumstances about 2 weeks ago and it eventually went south. However, time will tell. On the other hand, it might just be breath of air before a bullish move, but in my view its a short.
  • #42
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:40am Jun 10, 2014 11:40am
Quoting workingforex
Hi Everyone, Nice thread, just started watching DAX. I have a few short entries with average 10009. One thing that concerns me is that my broker says that every month on 19th the contract expires and I have to book in the loss or profit on that day if I have not closed the trade before then. In that case, it is very difficult to hold the position over a long period, is it only my broker or it is generally the case with trading DAX (GER30). I think it is over-stretched at the minute, but with Euro down, we still have some potential for some upside....
CFD contracts are similar to futures, which means that they go by monthly contracts that have expiration date. Because CFDs pay much more than fx per pip, they offer bigger profits imo, so you should really look at CFDs as swing trading opportunities rather than assets that you would keep over a 3-month period. Now, if you are more of a medium-term trader, this probably won't suit you. I myself am more of a swing trader and I hold my positions 2-3 days at a time these days.

I trade off 4-hour charts and sometimes 1-hour. I do my trading plan from Weekly and Daily charts and I also use weekly and monthly pivots to determine where the prices might be heading. I am also a semi-fundamentals-driven trader so I like to have a fundamental reason for entering a particular direction in an asset. All that said, I am quite good at TA, since I used to be a purely technical trader some years ago, but I found that with equities and crude oil, it really helps to know the underlying reason for why a trend might be in place and what started it.

Hope this helps.
  • #43
  • Jun 10, 2014 1:59pm Jun 10, 2014 1:59pm
Hi all

I am a complete novice at indices and stocks for that matter, but eager to learn. What is a good strategy with good logic to trade this markets? I'm looking at SPX seems like it has no breaks to the upside. Thinking it might make a push to the HH to form double top before a correction. Does it make sense or is this pure fundamentals driving it? Human behavior is repetitive but all markets behaves different as I see.
It is what it is deal with it.
  • #44
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:22am Jun 11, 2014 3:22am
Quoting doggette
{quote} CFD contracts are similar to futures, which means that they go by monthly contracts that have expiration date. Because CFDs pay much more than fx per pip, they offer bigger profits imo, so you should really look at CFDs as swing trading opportunities rather than assets that you would keep over a 3-month period. Now, if you are more of a medium-term trader, this probably won't suit you. I myself am more of a swing trader and I hold my positions 2-3 days at a time these days. I trade off 4-hour charts and sometimes 1-hour. I do my trading...
Thanks a lot for the input, much appreciated. Yes I would consider myself as a medium-term trader, sort off. With this expiration date hanging on the head, it can be quite a challenge to trade these. You have to be quite in it to win it. But that's what makes it interesting. Still a long way for me to start reading technical, I follow more of a fundamental view with some tech view. Think it should always be a mix of both, still learning more about technical. Will stay tuned in to your thread, keep up the good work. Will keep posting my views and comments. Lets make it more active thread and help each other.
  • #45
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:28am Jun 11, 2014 9:28am
SPX nothing much in the way to 1928
  • #46
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:51am Jun 11, 2014 10:51am
Quoting doggette
SPX nothing much in the way to 1928
why not 1900 and 1880?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #47
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:48am Jun 11, 2014 11:48am
Hi guys, I'm still new to trading and especialy to S&P, but from what I've learned so far isnt't there the Monthly R1 = 1942.25 in the way, before we move more south?

btw. I highly appriciate all your insights which u post here, as you have much more experience. They already saved me some money.
  • #48
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:44pm Jun 11, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Gingis
Hi guys, I'm still new to trading and especialy to S&P, but from what I've learned so far isnt't there the Monthly R1 = 1942.25 in the way, before we move more south? btw. I highly appriciate all your insights which u post here, as you have much more experience. They already saved me some money.
Hi Gingis, welcome to the thread! To chip in:

There has to be a valid price action reason for a level to work out. Levels we talk about in here are not some mythical levels that only us wizards can see - they are levels based on previous price behaviour. Looking at my chart, I don't see any significant previous demand that might put a stop to a pullback to 1928. Areas created during overnight sessions due to market inactivity are not valid, because they get smashed by higher trading vols once the main sessions kick off.

Of course no one can say 100% what will happen, but I look for highest probability trades. One way to make sure your trades work out is to look for areas of restriction on the chart (areas where price consolidates for a while, then leaves the area convincingly). If any of these areas happen to align with weekly and monthly pivot levels, pivots then become significant. I'm not too convinced by monthly S/R for key levels since they are not accurate enough for my entries.

Weekly/monthly pivots, on the other hand, can act as a median average and great targets for overstretched markets, especially if they haven't been touched in the week/month that they were created in. I think there are a few of us using missed pivots as targets for swing trades. But for entries I use supply/demand areas off a tick chart and volume delta to see the rejections/reversals if I'm doing intraday trades. Obviously knowing basic candle patterns helps to interpret rejections etc.

Hope this clarifies things a bit.
  • #49
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:46pm Jun 11, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} why not 1900 and 1880?
Sure, eventually, but I do wish to take some profits at demand areas. I was looking at possible targets for the next few days. I think we might have at least another week or two until 1900 and 1880. But yes, I see those levels too
  • #50
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:03pm Jun 11, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting doggette
{quote} Hi Gingis, welcome to the thread! To chip in: There has to be a valid price action reason for a level to work out. Levels we talk about in here are not some mythical levels that only us wizards can see - they are levels based on previous price behaviour. Looking at my chart, I don't see any significant previous demand that might put a stop to a pullback to 1928. Areas created during overnight sessions due to market inactivity are not valid, because they get smashed by higher trading vols once the main sessions kick off. Of course no one...
Thx, I got the message. Also now I know what to look at and learn as next step, as I've heared about Supply/Demand from various experienced traders by now.
  • #51
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:06pm Jun 11, 2014 1:06pm
Closed my short and was waiting for 9910-15 level to go long but could not resist myself and have a long position at 9940. Need to be more disciplined.

Where do you see DAX ?
  • #52
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:28pm Jun 11, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting workingforex
Closed my short and was waiting for 9910-15 level to go long but could not resist myself and have a long position at 9940. Need to be more disciplined. Where do you see DAX ?
It's fallen back into daily demand so possible further upside during London session tomorrow. However during NY, DAX is being dragged down by SPX.

I don't have any swing trading opportunities right now, I'd really like to see it closer to the monthly pivot around 9766 before entering a longer term buy.
  • #53
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:25pm Jun 11, 2014 3:25pm
Hello all and cheers doggette for the thread,

It's been more than 1 years since I last traded DAX, nice to see that someone pays attention on supply and demand for it, would love to see some charts from you doggette and also with some 1-2 weeks predictions . I will also make an analysis using Ichimoku for Daily and Weekly and see what I come up with.



Regards and green pips !
  • #54
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:03am Jun 12, 2014 3:03am
Longer term, I would like to long from at least 9800. I think we could see this level hit in few weeks. However now better to stay on sidelines.
  • #55
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:22am Jun 12, 2014 3:22am
Quoting MisterSpread
Hello all and cheers doggette for the thread, It's been more than 1 years since I last traded DAX, nice to see that someone pays attention on supply and demand for it, would love to see some charts from you doggette and also with some 1-2 weeks predictions . I will also make an analysis using Ichimoku for Daily and Weekly and see what I come up with. Regards and green pips !
Thank you. Here is some DAX s/d analysis.

Weekly I am really interested in 9792/93 key level. Today the Iraq situation might help equities to the down side, due to risk-on sentiment that's forming this morning. Let's have a look at what lies there on lower timeframes
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  • #56
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:34am Jun 12, 2014 3:34am
I mentioned it to someone last night about DAX falling into daily demand, however in view of todays fundamental events in Iraq, I don't expect this to hold.

Weekly pivot has been tested from the downside this morning, and might as well act as resistance to further upside.

Since equities love retesting extreme lows and highs of my s/d zones, careful around 9865, 6th April low, there might be a reaction to the upside, either for profit taking but especially if the daily range is exhausted at that point.
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  • #57
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:42am Jun 12, 2014 3:42am
And finally H4 analysis:

On the demand side, no fresh areas currently.

Supply around 10000 seems a little far away right now, but you never know, US might decide to take it up there. Although I'd probably bank more on that weekly pivot around the most recent resistance intraday around 9972 to act as a point of rejection.

Lower, targets-wise, I have Jan 2014 @ 9792 and in the vicinity there's also a monthly pivot, untested as of yet.

Even lower, daily demand is shaded gray, rather large from 9647 - 9529, but looking from a 4-hour chart, it gives a more accurate smaller area within spanning from 9615 - 9581, this area would be my possible long entry.

There is another H4 demand lower from there, but I need to mark it on another H4 chart, otherwise it's way too messy.
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  • #58
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:47am Jun 12, 2014 3:47am
Scrolling further to the left, on 4-hours there's another rather obvious support, part of another lower demand, but this one isn't that obvious on the Daily, so it might be much less relevant, however I will still point it out:
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  • #59
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:50am Jun 12, 2014 3:50am
In case you're wondering how I am positioning myself for today, I am short spx (scaled into one more position) and very soon will be long crude.
  • #60
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:01am Jun 12, 2014 6:01am
Hi doggette,

Excellent analysis, I do too use H4 to to open position and it indicates bullish on DAX at least today and SL always comes handy, however, the long term trend would be bearish on D1 and W1 @TP:9525.
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