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  • #903,701
  • Jun 9, 2014 5:23pm Jun 9, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting navk
Gator, I might close euraud longs, I favor shorting them around 1.4550/60 Let us see. I dunno you follow pivot points but I follow. It is bearish and the close for today is below pivot. I expect the price to retrace close to pivot and then down. Today's pivot is 1.4557
the most it will take from me is 10 pips... if the spread was lower, it would be less.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #903,702
  • Jun 9, 2014 5:30pm Jun 9, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I would say more for the Bulls than the bears, .. but in any case, i would say it's worth the risk! The minimum target - If it holds, at least $1.365 if not higher we will see {image}
bulls need bears to take a bashing to gain ground and vice versa, i am watching daily too , Im thinking it is battle time, with bears in front by a whisker 3580 is still the key level, needing a daily close below to confirm, should be good signs / clue in 3 hrs
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #903,703
  • Jun 9, 2014 5:57pm Jun 9, 2014 5:57pm
Why Euro will test 1.40 highs again:

#1 Market reaction to ECB actions:
ECB managed to weaken his currency against EM but for all hoping that EUR would become the choice of funding currency it didnt happen, USD weaken even more against EM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: b3q4aGU.png Size: 15 KB

This chart shows the 5th of June EM currencies moves against USD and against EUR, as you can see USD lost way more.(ie EM currencies rally big time versus the US dollar)

#2 Peak-ECB easing:
ECB will likely have a wait period of at least 12 months to see how their policys are affecting Euroarea, plus all LTROs will only be operational in December 2014! so you can wait a long time before ECB acts again, but it won't act if inflation is trending higher instead of lower, even if little.
Attached Image

This chart shows Core Inflation following Unemployment change YoY.

#3 European Yields and CDS spreads going lower
Repricing risk out of europe removes any needed heavy selling pressure from the euro. If balance sheet devaluation methods are not being considered then this is the most important factor that needs to exist in order to weaken the Euro.
Attached Image

This chart shows spanish spreads versus the german bund going to new low after ECB

#4 Low volatility envoirment supports the already established trends, including weaker USD vs EM and G10.

#5 Market is holding near record shorts in positioning

Risks:
a) The main risk for this view are the US inflation pressures, if inflation in US keeps going higher we will have a rate-hike scare since it would force the FED to start raise rates prematurely; think carry trade blowout; risk being repriced into europe which I believe will drive euro lower drastically.
b) Secondly, US doesnt show solid growth on Q2; That could feed a global slowdown and europe exposed.
c) Reserve managers behaviours on neg. rate is still to be seen, there were reports that last Friday during London session reserve managers were selling euros on the market.
d) Banks behaviours to ECB measures are still unseen and it will be like that for awhile, we are yet to see the markets reaction to banks behaviour, its a unkown.

So I'm holding longs will keep playing like that until things are the way they are.
  • #903,704
  • Jun 9, 2014 6:04pm Jun 9, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting spinozagr
tf1hr eur/usd oversold DXY overbought scalp open long @1.358 looking for 1.361 where it mets 38,2 fibo Venceremos {image} {image}
nice charts. Do you think counter trend trade is a good option here? What is your SL? Thank you.
  • #903,705
  • Edited 7:04pm Jun 9, 2014 6:44pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting milam
this bar was the first bar after 17 bars to trade above the previous one
only one trade for me, loss of 3.6 pips.. (-0.36%)

I have to admit, I was reading the price action wrongly all day........every day there is something to learn......I guess that is the only way.........The good thing was that I kept my discipline despite my increasing frustration in non reading properly...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,706
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:37pm Jun 9, 2014 7:37pm
Quoting milam
{quote} only one trade for me, loss of 3.6 pips.. (-0.36%) I have to admit, I was reading the price action wrongly all day........every day there is something to learn......I guess that is the only way.........The good thing was that I kept my discipline despite my increasing frustration in non reading properly...
Some reading:
"Interestingly, neurofinance researches have found that brain scan images of traders about to make a trede are indistinguishable from those of drug addicts about to tale a hit...".
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,707
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:48pm Jun 9, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Some reading: "Interestingly, neurofinance researches have found that brain scan images of traders about to make a trede are indistinguishable from those of drug addicts about to tale a hit...".
Mind linking that? Sounds like a good read... while I wait for my next fix
  • #903,708
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:59pm Jun 9, 2014 7:59pm
Quoting DasPips
{quote} Mind linking that? Sounds like a good read... while I wait for my next fix
Das

Sorry, I cannot, it is a book (pdf)......It is a book mostly about trading with a small reference of gambling in trading, I will pm you the name of book.....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,709
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:59pm Jun 9, 2014 7:59pm
no clear direction yet on the EURUSD. Lets see how the rest of the week bodes for the pair.
  • #903,710
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:05pm Jun 9, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Some reading: "Interestingly, neurofinance researches have found that brain scan images of traders about to make a trede are indistinguishable from those of drug addicts about to tale a hit...".
I guess if you boil it right down what we are doing is gambling which is its self a well know addiction, When I tried to explain to my wife once about currency trading she replied "what is the difference between this and gambling"
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #903,711
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:12pm Jun 9, 2014 8:12pm
pull up a comfy chair, cause the next 15-20 minutes could get pretty exciting
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #903,712
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:16pm Jun 9, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
pull up a comfy chair, cause the next 15-20 minutes could get pretty exciting
Really?....... do tell
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #903,713
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:18pm Jun 9, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Really?....... do tell

Oh.....all the AUD data about to come out?
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #903,714
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:26pm Jun 9, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} I guess if you boil it right down what we are doing is gambling which is its self a well know addiction, When I tried to explain to my wife once about currency trading she replied "what is the difference between this and gambling"


Although I never gamble (because the combination of odds, risk, and reward are against me, and I never want to bet against math), there are some similarities with gambling, especially in the minds of those who don't trade. Gambling is a game of chance, but I prefer to restrict the definition to situations where the odds are slightly against you and you will lose over time. Why this restriction? Because without it, every investment is a gamble since there is always an element of luck and a risk of total loss, even if you buy investment real estate, buy a home, start a business, buy a blue-chip stock, or even buy Treasury bonds (the government might choose to devalue the dollar to reduce the real size of our debt, and in so doing, the purchasing power of the dollars that you will get back from those bonds would be much less than when you originally bought the bonds).
Some traders use simple game theory and increase the size of a trade after one or more losing trades (this is called a martingale approach to trading). Blackjack card counters are very similar to trading range traders. The card counters are trying to determine when the math has gone too far in one direction. In particular, they want to know when the remaining cards in the deck are likely overweighed with face cards. When the count indicates that this is likely, they place a trade (bet) based on the probability that a disproportionate number of face cards will be coming up, increasing the odds of winning. Trading range traders are looking for times when they think the market has gone too far in one direction and then they place a trade in the opposite direction (a fade).
I tried playing poker online a few times without using real money to find similarities to and differences from trading. I discovered early on that there was a deal breaker for me: I was constantly anxious because of the inherent unfairness due to luck, and I never want luck to be a large component of the odds for my success. This is a huge difference and makes me see gambling and trading as fundamentally different, despite public perception. In trading, everyone is dealt the same cards so the game is always fair and, over time, you get rewarded or penalized entirely due to your skill as a trader. Obviously, sometimes you can trade correctly and lose, and this can happen several times in a row due to the probability curve of all possible outcomes. There is a real but microscopic chance that you can trade well and lose 10 or even 100 times or more in a row; but I cannot remember the last time I saw as many as four good signals fail in a row, so this is a chance that I am willing to take. If you trade well, over time
Although I never gamble (because the combination of odds, risk, and reward are against me, and I never want to bet against math), there are some similarities with gambling, especially in the minds of those who don't trade. Gambling is a game of chance, but I prefer to restrict the definition to situations where the odds are slightly against you and you will lose over time. Why this restriction? Because without it, every investment is a gamble since there is always an element of luck and a risk of total loss, even if you buy investment real estate, buy a home, start a business, buy a blue-chip stock, or even buy Treasury bonds (the government might choose to devalue the dollar to reduce the real size of our debt, and in so doing, the purchasing power of the dollars that you will get back from those bonds would be much less than when you originally bought the bonds).
Some traders use simple game theory and increase the size of a trade after one or more losing trades (this is called a martingale approach to trading). Blackjack card counters are very similar to trading range traders. The card counters are trying to determine when the math has gone too far in one direction. In particular, they want to know when the remaining cards in the deck are likely overweighed with face cards. When the count indicates that this is likely, they place a trade (bet) based on the probability that a disproportionate number of face cards will be coming up, increasing the odds of winning. Trading range traders are looking for times when they think the market has gone too far in one direction and then they place a trade in the opposite direction (a fade).
I tried playing poker online a few times without using real money to find similarities to and differences from trading. I discovered early on that there was a deal breaker for me: I was constantly anxious because of the inherent unfairness due to luck, and I never want luck to be a large component of the odds for my success. This is a huge difference and makes me see gambling and trading as fundamentally different, despite public perception. In trading, everyone is dealt the same cards so the game is always fair and, over time, you get rewarded or penalized entirely due to your skill as a trader. Obviously, sometimes you can trade correctly and lose, and this can happen several times in a row due to the probability curve of all possible outcomes. There is a real but microscopic chance that you can trade well and lose 10 or even 100 times or more in a row; but I cannot remember the last time I saw as many as four good signals fail in a row, so this is a chance that I am willing to take. If you trade well, over time
you should make money because it is a zero-sum game (except for commissions, which should be small if you choose an appropriate broker). If you are better than most of the other traders, you will win their money.
There are two types of gambling that are different from pure games of chance, and both are similar to trading. In both sports betting and poker, gamblers are trying to take money from other gamblers rather than from the house, and therefore they can create odds in their favor if they are significantly better than their competitors. However, the “commissions” that they pay can be far greater than those that a trader pays, especially with sports betting, where the vig is usually 10 percent, and that is why incredibly successful sports gamblers like Billy Walters are so rare: they have to be at least 10 percent better than the competition just to break even. Successful poker players are more common, as can be seen on all of the poker shows on TV. However, even the best poker players do not make anything comparable to what the best traders make, because the practical limits to their trading size are much smaller.
I personally find trading not to be stressful, because the luck factor is so tiny that it is not worth considering. However, there is one thing that trading and playing poker share, and that is the value of patience. In poker, you stand to make far more money if you patiently wait to bet on only the very best hands, and traders make more when they have the patience to wait for the very best setups. For me, this protracted downtime is much easier in trading because I can see all of the other “cards” during the slow times, and it is intellectually stimulating to look for subtle price action phenomena.
There is an important adage in gambling that is true in all endeavors, and that is that you should not bet until you have a good hand. In trading, that is true as well. Wait for a good setup before placing a trade. If you trade without discipline and without a sound method, then you are relying on luck and hope for your profits, and your trading is unquestionably a form of gambling.
One unfortunate comparison is from nontraders who assume that all day traders, and all market traders for that matter, are addicted gamblers and therefore have a mental illness. I suspect that many are addicted, in the sense that they are doing it more for excitement than for profit. They are willing to make low-probability bets and lose large sums of money because of the huge rush they feel when they occasionally win. However, most successful traders are essentially investors, just like an investor who buys commercial real estate or a small business. The only real differences from any other type of investing are that the time frame is shorter and the leverage is greater.
Unfortunately, it is common for beginners to occasionally gamble, and it invariably costs them money. Every successful trader trades on the basis of rules. Whenever traders deviate from those rules for any reason, they are trading on hope rather than logic and are then gambling. Beginning traders often find themselves gambling right after having a couple of losses. They are eager to be made whole again and are willing to take some chances to make that happen. They will take trades that they normally would not take, because they are eager to get back the money they just lost. Since they are now taking a trade that they believe is a low-probability trade and they are taking it because of anxiety and sadness over their losses, they are now gambling and not trading. After they lose on their gamble, they feel even worse. Not only are they even further down on the day, but they feel especially sad because they are faced with the reality that they did not have the discipline to stick to their system when they know that discipline is one of the critical ingredients to success.
Interestingly, neurofinance researchers have found that brain scan images of traders about to make a trade are indistinguishable from those of drug addicts about to take a hit. They found a snowball effect and an increased desire to continue, regardless of the outcome of their behavior. Unfortunately, when faced with losses, traders assume more risk rather than less, often leading to the death of their accounts. Without knowing the neuroscience, Warren Buffett clearly understood the problem, as seen in his statement, “Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.” The great traders control their emotions and constantly follow their rules.
One final point about gambling: There is a natural tendency to assume that nothing can last forever and that every behavior regresses toward a mean. If the market has three or four losing trades, surely the odds favor the next one being a winner. It's just like flipping a coin, isn't it? Unfortunately, that is not how markets behave. When a market is trending, most attempts to reverse fail. When it is in a trading range, most attempts to break out fail. This is the opposite of coin flips, where the odds are always 50–50. In trading, the odds are more like 70 percent or better that what just happened will continue to happen again and again. Because of the coin flip logic, most traders at some point begin to consider game theory.
Martingale techniques work well in theory but not in practice because of the conflict between math and emotion. That is the martingale paradox. If you double (or even triple) your position size and reverse at each loss, you will theoretically make money. Although four losers in a row is uncommon on the 5 minute Emini chart if you choose your trades carefully, they will happen, and so will a dozen or more, even though I can't remember ever seeing that. In any case, if you are comfortable trading 10 contracts, but start with just one and plan to double up and reverse with each loss, four consecutive losers would require 16 contracts on your next trade and eight
consecutive losers would require 256 contracts! It is unlikely that you would place a trade that is larger than your comfort zone following four or more losers. Anyone willing to trade one contract initially would never be willing to trade 16 or 256 contracts, and anyone willing to trade 256 contracts would never be willing to initiate this strategy with just one. This is the inherent, insurmountable, mathematical problem with this approach.
Since trading is fun and competitive, it is natural for people to compare it to games, and because wagering is involved, gambling is usually the first thing that comes to mind. However, a far more apt analogy is to chess. In chess, you can see exactly what your opponent is doing, unlike in card games where you don't know your opponent's cards. Also, in poker, the cards that you are dealt are yours purely by chance, but in chess, the location of your pieces is entirely due to your decisions. In chess nothing is hidden and it is simply your skill compared to that of your opponent that determines the outcome. Your ability to read what is in front of you and determine what will likely follow is a great asset both to a chess player and to a trader.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,715
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:27pm Jun 9, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Oh.....all the AUD data about to come out?
more importantly coupled with yuan, only problem at this stage is geppy could take a big dump, making it real tricky right now, if happen either a and k will fly or they will finally go back into sync, been along time rogue
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #903,716
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:29pm Jun 9, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} more importantly coupled with yuan, only problem at this stage is geppy could take a big dump, making it real tricky right now, if happen either a and k will fly or they will finally go back into sync, been along time rogue
I would think NAB data will be bad due to budget blues, as for china who f*&%ing knows
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #903,717
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:36pm Jun 9, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting emmalee25
Why Euro will test 1.40 highs again: #1 Market reaction to ECB actions: ECB managed to weaken his currency against EM but for all hoping that EUR would become the choice of funding currency it didnt happen, USD weaken even more against EM {image} This chart shows the 5th of June EM currencies moves against USD and against EUR, as you can see USD lost way more.(ie EM currencies rally big time versus the US dollar) #2 Peak-ECB easing: ECB will likely have a wait period of at least 12 months to see how their policys are affecting Euroarea, plus all...
I feel sorry for you.
  • #903,718
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:38pm Jun 9, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting emmalee25
Why Euro will test 1.40 highs again
If euro goes that high again...it won't test 1.40...it will break through easily.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #903,719
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:49pm Jun 9, 2014 8:49pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Although I never gamble (because the combination of odds, risk, and reward are against me, and I never want to bet against math), there are .......................will likely follow is a great asset both to a chess player and to a trader.

Nice quote, It really put into perspective the difference between trading and various types of gambling.
Sadly I think I often fall into the luck/hope trading category
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #903,720
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:57pm Jun 9, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Nice quote, It really put into perspective the difference between trading and various types of gambling. Sadly I think I often fall into the luck/hope trading category
We all do or did, perfecting that it is of vital importance.... great traders are not born, they make themselves....
Wherever you go, there you are.
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