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AUD/USD

  • #78,881
  • Jun 8, 2014 1:10am Jun 8, 2014 1:10am
I would say less imports because deleveraging iron ore and copper. See prices of both. Speculators were forced to sell to producers therefore less actual import.

kind of expected.
  • #78,882
  • Jun 8, 2014 1:20am Jun 8, 2014 1:20am
Quoting seaman2
I would say less imports because deleveraging iron ore and copper. See prices of both. Speculators were forced to sell to producers therefore less actual import. kind of expected.
Markets may see it as positive for both China and Aussie.

The slow down in iron ore could be due to China gov crackdown on the false invoice to inflate capital flows and the Yuan has declined about -2% against dollar from early March 2014.

Quoting chaosbun
{quote} The 80 pips spike u mention for may 7 was during asia market or the market before asia. Thanks for the information.
May 07 22:28 EST so it was during Asia market.
  • #78,883
  • Jun 8, 2014 1:46am Jun 8, 2014 1:46am
Quoting JTattheRanch
I see the Aussie going higher aswell. Probably anther 100 pips. Could even go much higher more like 400 pips.. This is actually very likely 65% chance of this.
Based on what analysis do you post such nonsense forecasts here and then assign such probabilities to them? Be a little more responsible and provide a sound analysis.
  • #78,884
  • Jun 8, 2014 2:14am Jun 8, 2014 2:14am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Watching correlation you need to follow what is going around that ccy. Important data on Friday including CAD so need to watch AUD/CAD. Yes, it's not easy to hold positions targeting few hundred pips. Scalping can neglect all that just to mark on the chart from support to the next resistance. {image}
It was the 3 hours before NFP that had me a little lost. AU was going against the grain. EU 3 up bars and AU 3 down. At first I figured it was just S/R but it was becoming a trend and figured it had to be coming from somewhere else. In hindsight it was a little pointless as the market mood tends to change after each NFP week anyway.

EA daily is still below my major resistance line though there could be reversal signs and I am watching for a BO of the falling wedge particularly, for a possible trend change. Both EU and AU look bullish to me atm but prob EU more so, especially on the EJ with a text book 4rh H&S. If the H&S is true then depending if it's just Euro driven or if the Yen is dropping too then it could mean the the AUD could suffer by a drop in the Yen. UJ has a recently had daily H&S and I will be interested to see if it has further upside to offer. This is a difficult time to trade imo, straight after the NFP week as the markets absorb all the news and adjust accordingly.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,885
  • Jun 8, 2014 2:29am Jun 8, 2014 2:29am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Markets may see it as positive for both China and Aussie. The slow down in iron ore could be due to China gov crackdown on the false invoice to inflate capital flows and the Yuan has declined about -2% against dollar from early March 2014. {quote} May 07 22:28 EST so it was during Asia market.
true deleveraging happening in china which is good.

not seen any GFC initiated deleveraging in elsewhere. Pile of s* waiting patiently to be distributed to unwary.
  • #78,886
  • Jun 8, 2014 2:43am Jun 8, 2014 2:43am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} It was the 3 hours before NFP that had me a little lost. AU was going against the grain. EU 3 up bars and AU 3 down. At first I figured it was just S/R but it was becoming a trend and figured it had to be coming from somewhere else. In hindsight it was a little pointless as the market mood tends to change after each NFP week anyway.

EA daily is still below my major resistance line though there could be reversal signs and I am watching for a BO of the falling wedge particularly, for a possible trend change. Both EU and AU look bullish to...
I remember perfectly 3 hrs before NFP, A/U down, E/U up and it was E/A because I entered E/A long - I might get S/O on Sunday Opening on China Trade Balance. But I keep short as well can't make up my mind due to the release of China trade balance on Saturday June 07.

Re: JPY.

Did you check the headlines from BOJ today? I always check the news even on Saturday and Sunday because never flat all year long. To trade XXX/JPY crosses, watching N225, N300 might help you with where the market sentiment and is directly correlated with XXX/JPY.
  • #78,887
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:39am Jun 8, 2014 4:39am
Quoting Zircon
{quote} Good , i can see 1.45012 as final target , i might start looking for buy.
Nasty one , i started dealing with, in and out.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,888
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:47am Jun 8, 2014 4:47am
Audusd 30 min chart.
If the open is gap up , one should think on buy.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,889
  • Jun 8, 2014 4:59am Jun 8, 2014 4:59am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Markets may see it as positive for both China and Aussie. The slow down in iron ore could be due to China gov crackdown on the false invoice to inflate capital flows and the Yuan has declined about -2% against dollar from early March 2014. {quote} May 07 22:28 EST so it was during Asia market.
Thank you Ken A.
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
  • #78,890
  • Jun 8, 2014 6:28am Jun 8, 2014 6:28am
Quoting xetrader
{quote} good analysis Chanlie... its time to go up higher to 400 pips next few weeks catch the trend and the train..
but i don't trade it now..
I prefer NZD and GBP....
good luck
Forex as Leverage
  • #78,891
  • Jun 8, 2014 6:42am Jun 8, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I remember perfectly 3 hrs before NFP, A/U down, E/U up and it was E/A because I entered E/A long - I might get S/O on Sunday Opening on China Trade Balance. But I keep short as well can't make up my mind due to the release of China trade balance on Saturday June 07. Re: JPY. Did you check the headlines from BOJ today? I always check the news even on Saturday and Sunday because never flat all year long. To trade XXX/JPY crosses, watching N225, N300 might help you with where the market sentiment and is directly correlated with XXX/JPY.
I don't look as much as I should with news on weekends... something to improve on

I also don't follow the index's as much I should too... but will work on that as well.

Cheers
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,892
  • Jun 8, 2014 7:48am Jun 8, 2014 7:48am
Bearish harmonic pattern on the daily chart.
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"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #78,893
  • Jun 8, 2014 11:54am Jun 8, 2014 11:54am
Quoting eugenyk
{quote} Please advise where did you get such info. Oanda shows them equal - http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/
On here and the other 100's of message boards. Thousands and thousands of people write in and they're saying it's going down,
That influences 10's of Thousands to short.

Everyone wants it to fall, which means it won't.
  • #78,894
  • Jun 8, 2014 1:41pm Jun 8, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
{quote} On here and the other 100's of message boards. Thousands and thousands of people write in and they're saying it's going down, That influences 10's of Thousands to short. Everyone wants it to fall, which means it won't.
I'm sorry but all you wrote in this reply - just words without proof
  • #78,895
  • Jun 8, 2014 6:35pm Jun 8, 2014 6:35pm
See a bit of harsh direction hustling here back and forth. Given the Aussie holiday dont expect much of anything short term. However this instrument may well tic back to 9300. From that point its a good coin toss if it can suststain a break below and maintain downward momentum.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #78,896
  • Edited 6:50pm Jun 8, 2014 6:40pm | Edited 6:50pm
Nice head and shoulder pattern forming on the one hour chart. That along with resistance at 9350 and trendline resistance on the daily chart at about the same level looks like a good reason to take a short to 9300. Entry order to go short at 9340 targeting 9300
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  • #78,897
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:18pm Jun 8, 2014 8:18pm
So is it going up or down
  • #78,898
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:22pm Jun 8, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting Ken A
So is it going up or down
Yes
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #78,899
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:23pm Jun 8, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yes
The crowd are always right
  • #78,900
  • Jun 8, 2014 8:25pm Jun 8, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} The crowd are always right
I couldn't resist....

But actually, I think yes is right. It will go up some, and then it will go down some. Just watching for now but for day trading this week. What I see.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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